To answer you question, I would say we'd first have to define "upper end" and "lower end".

If by "upper end" you mean all the mega-consortium properties, like Mirage/MGM adn all their  properties, then they should all generally survive, though that's no guarantee, by any means. Savvy marketing is what got them all where they are and savvy maketing is what will keep them alive. If letting one or more less profitable properties die is what they feel they need to do to survive, believe me I have no doubt they will do just that.

If by "lower end" you mean only those properties that are not mega-consortiums, like those rare birds still owned by a single family (Riviera anyone?) then these properties have their heads on the chopping block already and it's only a matter of time. The deeper the economiic woes and the longer they last, the faster places like this will die off.

I see two different groups of properties getting into trouble early.

Off-strip places will feel the crunch first and worst. As tourists try to conserve $, they will begin gravitating towards the strip, taking advantage of advertising come-ons and deals, and that whole "walking distance" concept (to save on cab fare or rental fees). Any "low end" property that's also off-strip is in real trouble. My guess would be watch for downtown slot palaces like Mermaids going out of business. They'll lose a lot of revenue because they don't have any real variety to offer and are already living so close to the vest they don't have much left to shave. Terribles, Ellis Island and some of the more notable "local's" might fit into this category.

Next, look for on-strip has-beenslike Circus to begin thrashing like a fish in it's final death throes. Even being on the strip won't mean enough people will stay or play there to make a difference in their eventual demise. So, Circus, Riviera, and even Excalibur could well crash and burn.

Wynn, Bellagio, Venetian and Harrah's are big enough (financially) to weather all but the worst of economic storms while MGM Grand, Planet Hollywood, Paris, Mandalay Bay, Monte Carlo, Caesars, and even Mirage should survive, (because they're part of a mega-consortium) though they will probably have to do it by returning strongly to that more "old Vegas" methodology to do so. Borderline places like Bally's and Flamingo might or might not make it, it depends on the specific marketing tactics used; how effective they are. Every place else, from Stratosphere and Sahara to Excalibur and Tropicana are in real trouble and could easily end up on the ash-heap; that includes Luxor whose recent theme overhaul is already hurting them.

The "Station" properties shoudl survive, though  perhaps not completely intact. Palace Station has been one of their inferior joints for some time. Green Valley Ranch and Red Rock, won't go unscathed and I'll go out on a limb and say that unless they locals perofrm miracles of financial support, one of the two may well be out of business within two to five years (agian it depends on how deep and how long the economic woes go).

Let me know what you think.

Do you think there will be more of a divide between the lower end places and the upper end places?

Frank