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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 24, 2009

Those Gimmick Wagers Ride the Range Again

Dear Mark: I was playing blackjack, and this game had the Pair Plus bet. I usually don't bet these side bets, but pairs were coming up like crazy so I tried it a couple of times. Could you give me the house edge on this bet? James H.

The bet you mentioned isn't called Pair Plus, as the wager of that name you will find on a Three Card Poker table. I believe what you are describing is a wager called "Pair Square," a blackjack side bet that wins if the player's first two cards are of the same rank.

With Pair Square, you'll find a small square next to your regular betting circle, about the size of a silver dollar. Just place your side bet in the square before your hand is dealt, and if it's a pair, you win the side bet. Payoff odds differ between casinos, but at typical scale, the bet usually pays 9-to-1 odds on an unsuited pair and 20-to-1 if the pair is suited.

At those odds with a six-deck shoe, the house has an 8.5 percent edge against your play. Depending upon the number of decks and various different payoff odds, the corresponding house edge can be anywhere between 2.89% and 15.42%.

Now compare that, James, to the house edge on regular blackjack, which varies from as little as a half of one percent to three percent, depending upon your quality of play.

Many players think these attention-grabbing options with these rare but lofty payoffs make the game more enjoyable. Some actually believe they are good bets -- but they're far from it.

Keep in mind, James, that every side-bet on the layout is designed for one purpose, and one purpose only: to increase the house profits on blackjack. For that reason, I would advise you and the rest of humanity to avoid all gimmick wagers in general.

Dear Mark: Occasionally you will see an advertisement that select slots return a 99% payback. This can't be correct, can it? Does that mean I put in $100 and get back $99? Julie C.

The advertisement you're recalling is essentially correct, but I would add one qualifying phrase: 99% payback means that a machine will pay back, ON AVERAGE, $99 of every $100 played through it. That means that 99%, on average, of all money that is inserted into the machine is being paid back to players. In other words, the casino makes a 1% profit.

So will you, Julie, always get 99 cents back for every dollar played? Nope! What's going to happen, Julie, is that your individual gambling session, say of a $100, will have widely varying results based on the volatility of that particular machine.

You need to look at slot paybacks this way: The more a machine gets played, the closer its actual payback gets to its theoretical payback.

Now, if the machine which is advertised to return 99% were to get, say, a million plays, then its actual payback will get within a few percentage points of its theoretical 99% payback. Your $100 bankroll amounts to a paltry few dozen spins on a dollar slot, whereas the casino's bankroll partakes in every bet made on that same machine, 24/7, 365 days of the year.

Unfortunately, Julie, you'll never yank that handle a million times, so the actual payback to you on that machine can be many percentage points away from the theoretical payback. And yes, that doesn't mean it can't miss the theoretical mark on the positive side, either, giving you the thrill you're waiting for. So, what can I say? Good Luck!

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: For many people, the craving to gamble at sports is almost as inherent as the instinct of self-preservation. --Barney Vinson, Las Vegas Behind the Tables

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Blackjack 21 Slot Payback 99%

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 17, 2009

Dear Mark: What do you know about 21 Madness? Is it a decent bet for the player? Kenny B.

Here's another one of those side bets in blackjack, Kenny, that sort of looks good, but just can't pass the smell test.

Kenny is referring to a $1 wager the casino allows you to make, in addition to your regular blackjack bet, that you will be dealt a two-card 21. Your natural allows you to push a button that starts a lighted display, governed by a slot machine-like random number generator, that stops to reveal a bonus payoff from $5 to $1,000.

Here's the skinny, Kenny. Blackjacks occur roughly once every 21 hands. So, think break-even bet if the average payoff is $21. Yet, through personal observation over a period of time, and sniffing around the internet and forums, I'm seeing/hearing that the average payoff is around $16, which gives the house an edge of 23.8 percent.

Of course, sniff testing doesn't allow me to give you a precise figure, and the average payoff could be lower, could even be higher, and a card counter sitting on a very high plus count might want to take a whack at it, but my guidance for the average player would be to stay clear of it.

Dear Mark: What is better for the player, a dealer who hits a soft 17 or one who doesn't? Brad N.

The dealer who doesn't, Brad. The house edge is lowered by approximately 0.2 percent if the dealer stands on all 17s.

Dear Mark: I play Three Card Poker, and stick exclusively with the Pair Plus bet. It seems I can stay on the table for a longer period of time playing this way over the Ante wager. Any merit to my way of playing? Dave S.

For starters, Dave, if you are asking me if it's the best casino table game to play in the casino, the answer is NO. If you are also asking me if it's the best bet table game to play at Three Card poker, the answer is still NO.

But seeing that it seems to be a game you enjoy, and because the difference in the house edge is ever so slight, I'll cut you some slack here.

What Dave's talking about is that he's making a wager that his hand will consist of a pair or higher (Pair Plus).

Betting on a pair is a simple matter of making a Pair Plus wager. You know immediately whether you have won a Pair Plus payoff as soon as you look at your cards. With a Pair Plus bet there is no raising or discarding, and the dealer's cards are immaterial.

Payoffs on Pair Plus wagers are made according to the following schedule, regardless of the dealer's hand:

Straight flush: 40 to 1
Three of a kind: 30 to 1
Straight: 6 to 1
Flush: 4 to 1
Pair: Even money

Besides Pair Plus being about the simplest wager to make, of all the new poker-based table games, this game has the lowest house edge. The wager Dave mentioned in his question, the Pair Plus option, has a house edge of about 2.3 percent, whereas the other option, the Ante wager, is about 2.1%; as long as your betting strategy, when making the "Play" wager, is to have at least a queen, six, and a four in your hand.

The Sine qua non here, Dave, is to have fun and have at Pair Plus.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Yup, playing the stock market is gambling. We hope this doesn't come as a surprise. --Lou Krieger & Arthur Reber, Casino Player magazine

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: 21 Blackjack Three Card Poker

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 10, 2009

Alert Player Sounds the Alarm

Dear Mark: I just finished reading your most recent column. You mentioned that it's best for a player to play at a casino with liberal rules, but the number one thing you failed to mention to your readers is to play at tables that pay 3-2 on a blackjack, and not to play any table that pays 6-5 or less. I think it's really important for you to convey this message to your audience to STAY AWAY from those RIP-OFF blackjack tables that pay 6-5. Jeffrey N.

I've adverted to, admonished, averred, attacked, antagonized, and all-but-wept about the pitfalls of getting paid 6:5 for a blackjack multiple times, but perhaps you're right, Jeffrey, some more 'splainin' about that rotten rule change is warranted.

On a conventional blackjack game, a blackjack typically pays 3:2. Say you bet $10 and get a natural, you'd be paid $15. However, these new 6:5 games pay only $12 for a $10 wager. Tweaking this one rule dramatically increases the house advantage---big time!

Without the 6 to 5 rule, the house edge is typically a half of one percent against a basic strategy player. Add a 6-5 rule on blackjacks and the cost to a smart player zooms an extra 1.39%.

So in dollars and cents, what's the difference between the two? For a $10 player using perfect basic strategy at 60 hands per hour, the expected loss is $3 per hour. The expected loss for the same player on a 6:5 game is an additional $8.35. Oh, and once all casinos start to utilize the 6:5 rule for a blackjack, all bets are off as to ever seeing a blackjack paying 3:2 again. It will be tough noogies for all.

'Caveat emptor' - 'let the buyer beware,' Jeffrey's question advises. He's right. Don't waste your hard-earned money on any blackjack game that pays less than 3:2 for a blackjack. You're buying a pig in a poke with a pretty pink ribbon attached if you do ...well, not all that pretty.

Dear Mark: My friend, Ed, will never, ever, split aces, especially against a dealer ace. What is the best strategy? Rick G.

What's important here, Rick, is to determine when to take advantage of the splitting rule. Even against a dealer Ace, splitting a pair of aces is a no-brainer in that without splitting them, all you have is a two or soft 12.

So being that there are more 10-value cards than any other card in the deck, why then, would anybody not split a pair of Aces?

I'm guessing your friend might be somewhat hot and bothered by the fact that a split ace and a 10 counts as an ordinary 21, paying 1:1, and not as a blackjack, which pays 3:2. He may feel cheated by that, and decide, in view of the limitation, not to bother splitting them.

Then there is the rule that says a split ace may receive only one additional card. There are blackjack players who believe that this rule limits their opportunity for additional cards, so they, too, refrain from splitting.

The bottom line is that if you put all emotions aside and focus solely on the blackjack odds and probabilities, you are better off with a hand of 11 than a hand of 12. Splitting aces gives you two hands of 11, and the correct blackjack strategy is, therefore, always to split them.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: A poker player is like a teabag. You don't know what they're made of until you put them in hot water. --VP Pappy

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Blackjack 21 Cards

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 3, 2009

Fire and Ice

Dear Mark: What are your thoughts of making all the numbers 4-5-6-8-9-10 in any order before a seven? This of course is the Fire Bet, which some casinos now offer. The pay-off is 1000 to 1. Norm M.

Top thought: After doing the back-of-the-napkin math, giving the house a 25 percent edge on your play, I wouldn't call smart gaming.

A number of casinos now offer what's called a "Fire Bet" that pays if the shooter makes at least 4 different points (among these: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9,10) before the seven rolls. Usually playing from $1 to $5, but sometimes as high as $10, the bettor is betting that a hot shooter will set and make multiple valued points; in order for the points to count towards the Fire Bet, they must all be different. For instance, a player that hits a point of 5 twice would get credit for only one point on his or her Fire bet, rather than two, because it was the same number.

The fire symbol the dealer places on the layout will mark the different points as the shooter makes them. For the first three points hit, there are no payoffs. However, increasing odds are paid for the fourth, fifth, and sixth points; 25 to 1 odds are paid for the fourth point, which would be $125 for a $5 bet; the fifth point pays at 250-1 odds, which is $1250 for a $5 bet; and the sixth point pays, as you state, considerably more at 1,000 to 1 odds: $5000 for five buckaroos.

While having an enormous payday of $5,000 for a $5 bet might whet your appetite to grab the bet, it doesn't change the fact that this wager is easily the worst one you can make on a crap game, with a huge house edge of 24.70%.

Dear Mark: I just hit a sizeable jackpot and was issued a W-2G by the casino. Can you recommend any books in relation to gambling and taxes so that I can explore all my options? Vance F.

To paraphrase the French police inspector in Casablanca, far too many players are "shocked, shocked" at being issued a W-2G for a slot jackpot as little as $1,200, and that Uncle Sam kindly requests some of that windfall. Thankfully a few authors learned on the subject of gambling and taxes have written books on this bewildering subject.

"The few details the IRS provides to guide gamblers through the tax maze are general, vague, open to individual interpretation, even contradictory," so says Marissa Chien (a tax consultant and gambler) and Jean Scott in their book, Tax Help for Gamblers. Scott and Chien cover everything from the handling of wins and losses; the gambling session; player and casino recordkeeping; filing your tax return; the W-2G withholding rules; and guidelines for state-tax considerations.

Another book that covers this complex subject is, How to Keep More of What You Win: A Gambler's Guide to Taxes, by Walter L. Lewis (CPA). Covering all the subjects above and then some, it too is an excellent resource when it comes to all the tax-related concerns of gambling wins. What I like best about this book, Norm, is how easily Lewis explains such complicated tax issues in a simple, easy to understand manner for tax law neophytes.

As tax time approaches once again, now the only thing standing in the way of gamblers and the IRS is, the tough part, actually hitting a jackpot.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The attraction of gambling is the possibility of wealth without work. --San Braids, The Intelligent Guide To Texas Hold'em Poker

Tags: Craps Fire Bet Taxes W2-G Book

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 27, 2009

How sweet they are - those twenty minutes of sanity

Dear Mark: I have always been fascinated by the gambling business. What I like most about your column is your insider’s view as to what is going on. Take last week’s column where you described the position of the "Pencil" and dealers being sent off to battle. I always wondered how the dealer was assigned a table. My question is in that same category. Once a dealer gets their table assignment, do they always deal on that same game all shift long or do they rotate to different tables? It seems some casinos operate differently than others on this matter. Eric G.

Yes, Eric, casinos do it differently. Personally, I much preferred the "round robin" approach when I dealt. The other common routine is the "pre-assigned string." Let me explain.

Dealing on the same table all shift -- the "pre-assigned string," is where three dealers each have a set table assignment, and a fourth dealer works relief for those three games. These three games are referred to as a "string."

For example:

Blackjack-1: Eric G.
BJ-2: Larry
BJ-3: Sue
Relief: Marty

Eric G, (that’s you), Larry, and Sue will work their respective games for the entire shift. Marty will be relief and take the first break at the top of the hour. At twenty past, Marty will tap out Eric G. on BJ-1, who will take a break until forty minutes past before returning to his respective game (BJ-1).

Then Marty will move to BJ-2 to give Larry a twenty minute breather. When Larry returns to BJ-2, Marty will tap out Sue on BJ-3 and deal there for twenty minutes. When Sue returns, Marty will take another break before starting the cycle all over again.

Because dealers get a 20-minute break every hour, most don’t like this method because their break time is slighted by having a relief dealer released from one game by an incoming dealer and then having to tap into the next game on the string. Smoothly done, this switch can take less than a minute, but with jam up action, up to five minutes of the next dealer’s break can be lost. A four minute walk each way to the break room, leaves you with just seven minutes to shovel down food like a crazed baboon.

The variation most dealers prefer is called the "round robin." There are still three dealers and a relief assigned to a three-game string, but the dealers on the string will work every game for an hour, and once they return from their break, they will take over for the next dealer needing his or her 20 minutes of sanity. So when Eric G. returns from his break after leaving BJ-1, he will give Larry on BJ-2 a break, who comes back to give Sue on BJ-3 hers.

Dear Mark: Are there certain rules newcomers to the game of blackjack should be looking for? Sean I.

Blackjack players, whether a newbie or not, should always play in a casino that offers favorable rules. To avoid hostile playing conditions in blackjack, look, Sean, for the following combination of rules that are advantageous to the player:

A single deck game (if you can find them)
Surrender, both early and late
Double down allowed after splitting pairs
Double down allowed on any two cards
Multiple pair splitting allowed, plus re-splitting aces
Dealer stands on a soft 17

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: A factor contributing to the appeal of slots is the chance to arrive by bus and depart by limo. --Alan Krigman, Casino Times

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Column Pilarski Blackjack 21

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 20, 2009

Tutorial on casino management

Dear Mark: A friend at Lake Tahoe is a dual rate dealer. Since he broke his hip skiing, he can't reach the pass line on the craps table. While he recovers, he has been working "the Pencil". He is spontaneous and multi-tasks well. Can you elaborate on this position? Randy S.

Being that once upon a time I held both of these positions - dual rate and Pencil, in that order - let's cover what a dual rate dealer is first.

A dual rate dealer is both a dealer and a games floor supervisor. When acting as a supervisor (also known as a floorperson), the dual rate dealer is responsible for compliance procedures, but also supervises the performance of other dealers to make certain that smooth and efficient gaming occurs during the shift. In a pinch, the dual rate dealer can also pitch cards, so, when acting as a dealer, they are responsible for dealing the game in a proficient manner.

Typically, they must have a comprehensive knowledge of at least three games, and must be able to deal at least two of the three major table games, Craps, Blackjack, and Roulette.

As for "the Pencil", that is the floor supervisor who is responsible for ensuring that the dealers know their table assignments. When on top of your game as the Pencil, sending dealers to do battle is only a momentary distraction from your normal duties, such as supervising a pit of at least six table games and lots and lots of schmoozing, to both players and dealers.

As for your friend having spur-of-the-moment skills, that is a must-have attribute when things get harried, as they often do near the end of swing shift, with tables closing left and right, and dealers needing to be re-assigned or sent home (EO'd or early out).

For instance, you could have a 60-table-games spread around midnight, but you are going to shut down 80 percent of them over the next hour or two. Thus, you've got dozens of dealers closing games and coming your way, with staggered shift start times, breathing down your neck at the pit stand. God forbid you jump someone on the EO list. Oh, and while all this is happening, some goof ball spills a 7-11 Big Gulp across the roulette table.

The Pencil can be extremely demanding, definitely requiring both spontaneity and the ability to multi-task well. In my circumstance, what made matters worse (besides my self-diagnosed Attention Deficit Disorder), is that I held the Pencil in a "go for your own" joint, the gist of that being that dealers kept their own tips - no splitting. One thing every dealer knew is where the Whales - big tippers - were, on every table, at any given moment, creating an environment where the inmates -dealers - tried to run the asylum, , at times successfully, I might add.

I still get cold sweats at night thinking about "the Pencil."


Dear Mark: Do you think the casino would set the bar video poker machines at say 7/5, and the video poker machines on the floor at 9/6? I seem to have better luck on the floor machines. Tim F.

Absolutely, sure, happens all the time, Tim. Oh, and the reason for having more luck on the casino floor, is because you're playing on a 9/6 machine (nine for a full house, six for a flush) with far superior payback than you get from a 7/5 one.

Although every slot manager is different when it comes to the placement and positioning of machines on the casino floor, it's still your responsibility to be always on the lookout for the best video poker opportunities available. One 9/6 video poker machine can easily be standing side by side to 7/5 one, let alone across the casino at the bar.

Of course drinking and gambling are the casino's favorite mix. In the gaming business, we call those free libations "chip removers."

Free drinks (coin removers for you) have always been part of the casino ambience. It speeds up the process of losing. Unfortunately, influenced by a sundry of alcoholic beverages, a lot of inebriated patrons just don't notice that the bar top machine is only a 7/5.


Gambling Wisdom of the Week: As we all know, slots are hungry devils and they can go through our money the way a school of piranha can go through a cow. --Frank Scoblete, Strictly Slots

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Video Poker Dealer

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 13, 2009

Casinos try to keep it cloak-and-dagger

Dear Mark: For years I have been a heavy gambler on video poker here in Reno. I used to break close to even on specific machines at a certain casino. I became suspicious when I started losing real bad over several months. I asked a Slot manager if they reset the machines and he said yes. He stated all they did was lower the paytable from 97.9 % to 95%. I have not been back since. IS THESE LEGAL? I can't believe they did that much less admit it? Les L.

Given the competitive nature of the gambling business, casinos usually don't divulge much to patrons about their casino hold. Macy's never told Gimbel what they were up to; only in the 1947 movie, Miracle on 34th Street, did they swap a trade secret.

What's happening is that the casino where you play made a seasonal wholesale change to their video poker machines, hoping to improve their theoretical hold. They changed out the paytables and a chip telling the machine when Les hits specific hands, like a full house and a flush, to pay him significantly less.

What baffles me a bit is, why now ???, especially when casinos need to keep gamblers playing during these tough times. Good paying machines should keep Les coming back for more; hard to see Les scooting right back for less, as he's writing me, and leaving him wondering, what the hell is going on.

It appears that your casino's recessionary cost-cutting plan was to tauten the video poker machines. Since casino revenues are generally down across the country, they are looking at any way they can cut costs. And ah!... yes, Les, it's LEGAL.

Cash-short casinos may think this makes common sense in the short term, but long-term, uh-uh. This recession won't last forever, and they could lose the loyalty of plenty of players, like you, Les.

Odd thing, Les. When I made mention a few weeks back that finding 9/6 video poker machines was a tiger hunt forever on you, Mike Dini, the public relations manager at the Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort in Mt. Pleasant, MI, reached out and told me that their casino offers 360 9/6 Jacks or Better video poker games. AND, get this: Soaring Eagle is a stand-alone property with zero competition, whereas Reno, where you play, is far more dog-eat-dog.

The games that give you the best chance of winning are the ones that carry the smallest house edge, like video poker, with the best paytables, assuming you use the proper strategy on said machines.

The best thing about video poker machines is that you don't need to be an insider to know which are the best machines to play, because video poker paytables tell you exactly what your theoretical return is on any machine. It's not like a slots where you see a pretty machine and put in a quarter.

For example, for Jacks or Better, if the game is a 9-6 Jacks or Better (meaning full houses pay 9-for-1 and flushes pay 6-for-1), the machines will return 99.5% over the long run with optimal play. If the machine pays 8-for-1 on full houses and 5-for-1 on flushes, it returns 97.3 %, a 7-5 machine, returns only 96.2 percent.

Knowing how to identify the best paytables offers you the opportunity to compare and shop around for the best value. Now it's up to the casino where you used to play to somehow/someway try to bring you back in.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The boring thing about video poker is that once you learn the correct strategy, unlike real poker, there's nothing left to learn. --VP Pappy

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Video Poker %

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 6, 2009

Pick the Odds Against You: 5.26% OR 2.7%

Dear Mark: My game of choice is roulette. I like to play certain individual numbers straight up in sections, not sections being the first (from 1-12), the second (from 13-24), and third (from 25-36), but sections grouped together on the wheel itself. For example, these are the numbers in sections I typically play; 5-22-34,16-4-23 and 28-9-26-30. A pit boss at the casino where I play told me they are bringing in a single zero roulette wheel. My question is, with the 00 missing, are the sequence of numbers the same, so that I can continue playing specific sections of numbers? Justin B.

Unfortunately, Justin, as to betting the same specific combinations of numbers on the wheel, you won’t be able to, but switching to a European roulette wheel will unquestionably be the astute way to play over the long run.

Like American wheels, European wheels (single zero) have alternating odd and even numbers displayed in alternating red and black colors, but they have only 37 pockets numbered in an unordered format.

Sequencing clockwise, the number ordering for the single zero or European type of wheel is as follows; 0-32-15-19-4-21-2-25-17-34-6-27-13-36-11-30-8-23-10-5-24-16-33-1-20-14-31-9 -22-18-29-7-28-12-35-3-26.

Whereas the American roulette wheel has 38 numbers: 1-36 and a "0" and a "00" (double zero). With the zeros at the opposite ends of the wheel, the numbering scheme for an American wheel is; 0-28-9-26-30-11-7-20-32-17-5-22-34-15-3-24-36-13-1-00-27-10-25-29-12-8-19-3 1-18-6-21-33-16-4-23-35-14-2.

Clearly, Justin, they are different, but here’s the real skinny.

Currently you prefer straight-up bets on specific numbers, giving you a payoff of 35 to 1, with true odds of 37 to 1, and a casino edge of 5.26%. You don’t seem interested in Split Bets (i.e. that one of two adjacent numbers will appear; Payoff: 17 to 1, True Odds: 18 to 1, Casino Edge: 5.26%) or a Corner Bet (wagers are placed at the intersection of lines between any four numbers that form a square; Payoff: 8 to 1, True Odds: 8.5 to 1, Casino Edge: 5.26%), so it doesn’t make any difference what the number sequence is on either wheel.

Be it Straight-up, Split or Corner bets, most players mistakenly believe that certain wagers on a roulette table are superior to others. In reality, the casino advantage of 5.26% in roulette comes from the presence of the 0 and 00 on the layout, since all wagers are paid according to how the odds would be if there were just 36 numbers on the wheel, even though, by adding the 0 and 00, there are now 38 numbers.

Therefore, Justin, I would highly recommend that you play on a single-zero game where the house will still pay you 35-1, but you effectively cut the house edge about in half, giving the casino a 2.7% edge not only on your straight-up wagers, but on all roulette bets on the layout.


Dear Mark: If slots are presumed to be random, who checks to see that they are, or, are we to just believe the casinos? Sam F.

Each state has a regulatory body that takes responsibility for making sure that the slots are random. And, believe me, they don’t presume anything. The guts on the inside (chips) have to be licensed by the gaming board before they are inserted into each machine.

Gambling wisdom of the Week: A major reason I haven't taken up live poker as a money making activity is because successful bluffing and identifying when others are doing it are not skills I'm particularly good at. --Bob Dancer, Million Dollar Video Poker

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Roulette Slots

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

February 27, 2009

While cards flit hither and yon, the dots on dice stay put

Dear Mark: As to table games, you have mentioned that in roulette and craps, each spin of the wheel and each toss of the dice are based on independent events. Why wouldn't blackjack be in this same category? The cards are randomly shuffled, so wouldn't each individual blackjack hand also be considered independent from another? John C.

Yes, John, you are correct in stating that each individual spin on a roulette wheel or toss of dice on a crap game should be treated as an independent event. Roulette balls and dice have neither memory nor clairvoyance. No amount of past history (looking backwards from a streak) on a random, non-biased wheel or legal die cubes predicts a future outcome.

Yet, although the first hand of blackjack dealt from a randomly shuffled full deck consists of randomly selected cards with equal likelihoods of being selected, the same cannot be true of any following hand, since no following hand can have in it any of the cards already dealt. In card games, what has happened in the past DOES affect what will happen in the future.

The odds constantly shift as cards are dealt from the deck. Blackjack players who count cards, are constantly trying to determine the comparative presence of 10s and non-10s in the deck. That information determines whether the deck is favorable to the house or to the player at any given moment. When the balance favors the player, he or she would increase the bet. Conversely, when the deck favors the house, the player would wager less.

With the other two games mentioned, those tools of gambling (roulette ball and dice) have neither memory or consciousness. They are just blind tools of the trade, whose composition doesn't change during play, and which cannot affect the odds of the game in any way. But a shoe that's showing, say, plus 10 for the player isn't independent at all, but a golden opportunity for a player to not only increase his or her next bet, but to enjoy a much higher probability of winning.

Dear Mark: On a jackpot of $1,200 or more, is there any way I can legally avoid receiving a W2-G? Say for instance on a $1,200 jackpot, can I ask the casino to pay me less than the full amount? Mel T.

According to IRS, the casino must issue you a W2-G if a slot machine win is above $1,200. The way you can circumvent receiving one is by refusing the money altogether. Let me know when you do that, Mel. Better yet, call me. I'll claim the jackpot and gladly pay the taxes.

As for asking the casino to shortchange you on your windfall to dodge a W2-G, off the cuff, I'd say, notta chance. In the joints I worked, we wouldn't for two reasons; accounting--the pencil pushers upstairs like things balanced--and collusion. Being that all gambling winnings are technically taxable, Uncle Sam getting wind of a publicly traded company on the NYSE in cahoots with players trying to avoid paying taxes would be a bit unpleasant for all involved.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Some of the opponents you will encounter in poker games will be more ruthless than any casino in taking your money. --Jean Scott, More Frugal Gambling

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Column Pilarski Craps Blackjack Slots Jackpots

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

February 20, 2009

Honest answer, yes, but here's the explanation why

Dear Mark: My favorite slot to play is video keno. I've been playing them since their inception. I find I win more than a live keno game, besides, they don't offer a live game anymore where I play. Now, video keno is no longer available. I complained, and I was told they were no longer profitable. How can a slot machine not be profitable? Was I being told the straight story? Alice J.

To begin with, Alice, you are correct in your assessment that video keno is a better play than that of a live keno game. For a live keno game the medium house edge is 28%, whereas with video keno it is 7.5%. And although video keno does have better paytables for the player, even at 7.5%, it still should be an overall winner for the house.

I think what they meant, Alice, by no longer "profitable," is that all machines need to show reasonable results or their replacement is inevitable. A gaming machine's performance is measured by two factors: the amount of coins wagered daily ("coin in") and the amount collected daily by the casino ("win"). My guess is that the video keno machines' performance faltered, possibly due to lack of play, so the slot manager decided a change was needed in the slot mix. Out went video keno.

Another potential problem with video keno, at least in the slot manager's eyes, is that far too many players play just one coin at a time. Furthermore, the game itself takes longer to play than just yanking the handle of a slot machine. Tallied together, you're making smaller and fewer bets per hour on video keno than you would on a comparable reel slot machine, which also can make them overall less "profitable" for the casino.

Dear Mark: Great column last week on Spanish 21. I tried it for the first time this weekend, I liked it, and even won a little money. You forgot to mention it in your column, but the game also offers a pretty neat surrender feature when doubling down. You might want to pass that along to your readers. Tom S.

Yes, Tom, some of Spanish 21's player-friendly rules are doubling down on two or more cards, double downs up to four times after splits, and the "double down rescue" that I failed to cite.

If you happen get hit with a stiff (an undesirable card) on a double down and are not satisfied with it, you can double-down rescue (aka, surrender, forfeit or concede) part of the hand. Here the dealer takes the original bet and you retain the double portion of the wager.

For example, suppose you are dealt an 11 against a dealer's 9 and you choose to double down. You draw a 4, putting you on a 15 and on tenterhooks for a dealer bust. Double down rescue allows you to surrender your primary wager and keep the double down portion.

Dear Mark: If one is not a card counter and simply plays correct basic strategy, Is there any disadvantage to a table employing continuous shuffle machines? I do not like these units, but cannot come up with any concrete reason why they should put me at a disadvantage versus dealing from a shoe. Cliff M.

I've written time and again on this subject, Cliff. Possibly you missed it, but the "concrete reason" is that continuous shufflers hurt all players because the dealer never stops to shuffle, meaning, you'll see an increased number of hands dealt per hour, yielding a richer opportunity for the built-in casino advantage to work against your wallet.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: It's (gambling's) fun, exciting, it only sucks when you lose. --Charles Barkley

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

February 13, 2009

Little risk, big reward logic is not sane gambling

Dear Mark: I play craps exclusively and tend to stick with your recommendations, that being Pass line bets, odds and a Place bet on either the Six or Eight. I also like to bet the "snake eyes" or "box cars" as a fun way to invest a little for a decent payoff. You've called them "sucker" bets, whereas I see it only as a buck with little chance of financial ruin. They do hit occasionally, so I'm asking if there any flaw in my logic? Dave C.

Your question, Dave, reminded me of a bright new freshly paved road I once happened onto in nowhere Nevada one very, very hot summer day. It was smooth, the concrete was new, bright, swift. We just tooled along, until coming over a slight rise we saw that the road ended. No signs, no warning, no fence, no gate, and no gas - just sand, cactus, and some sleepy lizards. They could have named that road Snake-eyes because I was bitten.

Yes, Dave, I hear it all the time: "It's such a small investment for the potential of a decent payoff," or, "I hit the two (snake eyes) and twelve (box cars) enough that it pays to bet a $1."

What encourages most players to make this bet is that it can hit, on any given gambling session. Those "ups" you may be currently having just shows the volatile nature of gambling. The rollercoaster "ups" and "downs" of gambling happen to everyone, but getting an oversized payout of $30 for your $1 wager will camouflage the long-term ruin that this "sucker" bet will eventually bring to your wallet.

What doesn't change with a snake eyes or a box cars wager is the built-in house edge. It's a whopping 13.88 percent, meaning for every $100 you bet on the two or twelve, the casino pockets $13.88. Ka-ching! Can you hear me now?

Chicken scratch it's not, and if you're bellied-up to a crap table continually betting $1 on the two, and participate in 140 rolls of the dice every hour, your $140 investment should have an expected loss of $19.43 per hour. Hang around the game for four hours, plan on $77.72 in losses on that one wager.

Sound gambling? I think not. Neither is driving in the desert without a full tank of gas.

Dear Mark: I have heard that some states offer slot machines that are based on skill. How can that be? Don't you just yank a handle and win? Jenny G.

You meant lose, Jenny, didn't you?

"Skill" slots are slightly different in that you have two opportunities to spin the reels. After you see the results of your first spin, supposedly the "skill" factor comes into play in the bonus round when you decide to keep none, one, two or all three symbols on each reel before you spin them again.

Naturally, you keep the sure things like cherries, treasure chests, and doubles and trips of everything, but I've tried these "skill" machines once in North Carolina and I'm still not quite sure what proficiency you need outside a flair for guessing and loads of luck.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: He was about to gamble his life on that table, and the insanity of that risk filled him with a kind of awe. --Paul Auster, The Music of Chance

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Column Pilarski Craps Slots

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

February 6, 2009

Rice and Beans with that?

Dear Mark: I read your column every week but have not seen any comparison between blackjack and Spanish 21. I know that the number 10 card is removed from the Spanish 21 deck, giving you less of a chance to get a two card 21, but it also gives you less of a chance to bust when you take a hit with 16 or less. Also, Spanish 21 has more payoffs than Blackjack giving you a better chance to win. When playing basic strategies for both Blackjack and Spanish 21, which game has the better odds for the player? Frank S.

You mentioned in your question one of two notable variants when comparing Spanish 21 to the regular blackjack game. With Spanish 21, all the 10s (not the Jacks, Queens, and Kings) are removed from the deck. Also, the player gets paid for a hand total of 21, or the standard three-to-two payoff for a blackjack, even if the dealer's hand is a natural blackjack.

Additional player-friendly rules are; doubling down on two or more cards, pair-splitting and double downs up to four times after splits, bonus payoffs for different combination 21s, and although I have never actually popped my peepers on this one, a super bonus that pays out $1,000 for a suited 7-7-7 when the dealer's up card is a seven.

So, Frank, even without those 10s in the deck, does Spanish 21 with perfect basic strategy, offer better odds for the player than does blackjack, utilizing the same?

Almost. By employing Spanish 21 basic strategy-which obviously differs from normal blackjack strategy-you force the house edge down to 0.8%, which is only slightly higher than the 0.5% you can achieve using perfect basic strategy at blackjack. Of course, if you deviate from it, the casino edge can go up to three percent, about the same as in seat-of-the-pants blackjack.

Dear Mark: I run a charity poker room and have a blackjack table. In charity poker rooms the charity wins all ties. I have a couple of players who I think are counting cards on a 6-deck shoe. They seem to win every time. Is this possible? Are they counting cards? Are not the odds still in favor of the charity. Any advice or knowledge you can give me would be great. DSC

Because charity games are deliberately designed to feed a buck or two into the community coffer, the charity blackjack game wins ties at blackjack. Players should consider pushes the cost of philanthropic entertainment to support worthy causes. A charity blackjack game that keeps ties has an advantage of 8.8% over the player.

No card counter can beat an 8.8% edge, so, the probable answers here are a) they are NOT cheating, they have just been lucky, or b) dealer collusion, that rouge dealer on the inside. If it's always the same dealer, pitching cards to the same players, mystery solved, or c) charlatan players who have decided to bring their own cards to the party or who mark the current ones on the game.

Suspicious play warrants decks being pulled off the game and inspected. An expert, not you, should look for bends, crimps, bumps, scratches, inks, pigments, the latest in shade technologies, etc. From here forward, anytime you swap out decks, make sure the cards are new, and of a different color. Castrate the used decks by having holes punched through the middle, corners cut off, or large black spots applied.

You also have an assortment of countermeasures that casinos utilize to offset a counter's advantage. One such that you are using to impede skilled blackjack players is a six-deck shoe. For giggles, bump it to eight. You can also shuffle at will to thwart bet variance, and you can instruct the dealers to move the cut card closer to the top of the shoe against assumed counters.

Granted, the last thing a charitable organization needs are card counters on the game emptying the tray, but with your built-in 8.8% edge, and counters maxing out with a 1.5% advantage, less outright cheating, I'm coming full circle and stating that my inclination is that it's a fluky streak by the players in question.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: No dog can go as fast as the money you bet on him. --Bud Flanagan

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

January 30, 2009

Anytime is the right or wrong time to play

Dear Mark: Is there any good time to play slots. For instance, day versus night, weekday versus weekend? It seems you see more jackpots hit on the weekends. Dusty E.

Your chances of winning, Dusty, have nothing to do as to when you play. Casinos don't tighten or loosen machines at a whim or with moon rise.

That doesn't mean that there are not better times to play. Some players don't like crowds, so weekday play suits them fine. In addition, your favorite machine's availability is better on weekdays. Just try getting on a single bank Wheel of Fortune quarter slot on Saturday night. It's not going to happen. Then there are those who love crowds, smoke, and pushy players. Okay, I'm bringing my past employment to the table, but there are players who do enjoy the liveliness of a crowded casino.

The reason, Dusty, why you'll note more players hitting jackpots on the weekends is because more people happen to be playing then, but that has absolutely nothing to do with your chances of winning, or theirs.

Dear Mark: Recently on a crap game, I suggested to a player, as you have always recommended, to just stick with the pass line and forget about all the wacky bets he was making. He rudely told me to mind my own business. I was just trying to help a poor soul who ended up losing all his money. Did I do or say something wrong? Gerald C.

You probably in the future want to avoid being a kibitzer -- that fellow player who offers unsolicited advice about how to play. Even though the Great Kibitzer in the Sky would give you a high five on that advice, Gerald, the High Eminence of Diplomacy would remind you that cantankerous players will always end up blaming you when they lose.

Dear Mark: What amount of dollar play rewards a blackjack player with comps to a casino's restaurant? I'm typically a $5-$25 player. Marty B.

Even as a $5-$25 player, Marty, you can get your fair share of goodies, at least when it comes to food and drink. What you are asking for is called a "soft" comp, which can be cocktails, restaurant expenses and shows that the casinos produce themselves. They are relatively easy to get because casinos technically purchase them wholesale and bill them to a comp account retail.

"Hard" comps are reimbursements for airline tickets, golf, concerts, off-site casino shows or anything else that would cost the casino real out-of-pocket dollars. Those hard comps have to see a lot more action on your part to become yours.

Every casino has different standards and policies towards rewarding comps to table game players, but if you planned on playing in the $5-$25 level for at least a couple hours, when I played pit boss, we would have gladly comped your play with a feeding frenzy at our buffet.

Because comps are not automatically flung at table games players, you have to do your part. Ask for them. One thing I wasn't good at was reading minds, or sniffing out the hungry pheromones spread by starving players.

Dear Mark: My friend and I read your column religiously and have a bet on if you do, or don't, play the lottery. I say no, he says yes. Tim J.

If you are you asking, "Do I play occasionally, like twice a week," the answer is, absolutely not. But do I dabble in $3 worth of Quick Picks occasionally for a once-in-a-lifetime possibility of flanking a never-in-our-lifetime probability. Yep.

With my background of evaluating odds in every playing situation, I confess, I do play, but only when the jackpot exceeds the true odds of hitting either the Mega Million, which is 1 in 175,711,536, or Michigan's Classic Lotto 47 when it's over $10,737,573.

Gambling wisdom of the Week: The dice goad like hooks and prick like whips; they deceive and torment. They are coated with honey. --Better's Lament, Rig Vada Hyme

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Slots Craps Blackjack Lottery

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

January 23, 2009

Rigging your Payday?

Dear Mark: Do casinos set Multi-play video poker machines so that a more powerful hand doesn't appear on the initial deal, so they can avoid a very large payday for the player playing multiple hands? Alex G.

Multi-play video poker games are offered in "Triple Play", "Five Play", "Ten Play", "Fifty Play" and even "One Hundred Play" versions.

With Multi-play machines, once you chose the number of hands you wish to play, you hit the deal/draw button. Five up-cards will appear on the first hand only. All the additional poker hands will now play from the cards you hold from these first five cards. As you select the cards you want to keep, identical hold cards will appear in the remaining hands. Now, you press the deal/draw button once more to draw. Each poker hand will be dealt different draw cards. For each hand that is a winner, the poker machine will indicate your winnings by a notice flashed on top of the winning hand(s).

That's how they work, Alex, but are the casinos rigging your payday?

By law, the casino may not set the machines so they do not deal high-paying hands. Video poker machines by all U.S. manufacturers deal the cards as if you were dealing them yourself from a deck at your kitchen table, only electronically. On the deal, every possible five-card hand is equally likely to be dealt--even a beginning hand containing a straight flush.

Some additional points, Alex, if I may. When you indulge in multi-play games, search out the best paytables. Generally speaking, better paytables are found on single play versions, not multi-play games, but, some oddballs do exist.

The odds do not change if you play one or one hundred hands on games with the same pay table, so don't change strategy when you go from a single to a multi-play game. If you are playing Ten Play full pay 9/6 Jacks or Better, the pay back is 99.54% -- the same as in single play.

One final point to keep in mind when choosing between a single or multi-play game is the cost. A hundred hands on a quarter machine at $1.25 per hand is definitely a bankroll buster.



Dear Mark: It seems that it's getting tougher and tougher at video poker to hit mid-range hands like full houses and four-of-a kinds where I play. Any chance the casino is tightening the machines? Gail B.

Over the past few weeks, I've spent some quality time discussing, a) identifying full pay video poker machines, and b) an individual's gambling timeline: The gist being, are you seeking out the best paytables, and, anything can and will happen during your casino visit. Possibly, Gail, you are on a losing streak, maybe from hell.

Still, I'll shift gears, and talk about the casino taking a screwdriver to loosen or tighten video poker machines at will.

Can they? Yes. Do they? Probably not, especially not with any frequency.

The house can change the payback on any machine, any time it wants. However, it is just not cost-effective for the casino to continually alter the payouts on their machines. To alter the percentage return in their favor, the casino must, by law, make a hardware change. This is done by swapping out an internal component, the ROM portion of the microprocessor chip. ROM, or read only memory, is a chip the slot manufacturer provides to the casino. This is the chip that tells the video poker machine to pay 9 coins for a full house, 6 coins for a flush, etc. Additionally, the casino would have to physically change the glass payout schedules on their machines. And beyond that, some state gaming commissions won't allow casinos to switch chips in-house. Casinos in those jurisdictions have to send the machines back to the manufacturer for any such surgery.

You might see a seasonal wholesale change to improve their theoretical hold, changing all 9/6 machines to 8/5 or 7/5 machines, but making the change is a lengthy process. What they definitely can't do is throw a secret switch to instantly tighten their machines.


Gambling Wisdom of the Week: I also hear the nonsense about the casinos trying to get you drunk, so that you will play stupid and lose. Let me tell you my friend, a lot of players don't have to get drunk to play stupid. --John Patrick, So You Want to be a Gambler

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Video-poker

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

January 16, 2009

Happenstance or Cheating?

Dear Mark: I was recently in Vegas for New Years. I changed $100 to play blackjack at a $10 table, breaking my bets into five $20 bets. It was just me versus the dealer, pushed a couple of times, and I lost eight straight hands without winning one single hand (the last $20 was broken down into two $10 bets).

Here's the part that keeps me up at night. It was a brand new six deck shoe. When the cards were dealt, the shoe appeared hot. Here's the kicker, the dealer would always get better cards than me. If I pulled an 18, he'd pull a 19, If I pulled a 20, he'd pull a 21, etc.

I can't help but wonder that if another player were to sit down, or if I played two hands, it would have changed the flow and help to my benefit, since all the cards being dealt were high.

Do you think that would have happened? Or would the dealer still be able to pull miraculous 21's out of nowhere? Johnson T.

You didn't go home a loser, Johnson, because you were swindled by some card shark. It was because your gambling timeline -- the period you're on the game -- was limited to but a few hands of snapper. When your gambling timeline is limited to under a dozen hands of blackjack, and not to millions, thousands, or even hundreds of them, any percentage return, can, and will happen. The Law of Averages (aka the Law of Really BIG Numbers) did not have time to work during your brief tenure at the table.

Yes, definitely, you would have been dealt different cards possibly poles apart had you played two circles, and perhaps you could have won eight straight, but anytime you join a game, even if it's fresh decks out of a shoe, you initiate your own personal sequence of hands, with the cards possibly going hot or cold from that moment forward.

The lesson here, Johnson, is that when you shorten your time on a table, don't expect the Law of Averages to be working in your favor; half the time it won't. Abysmal aberrations in gambling odds do happen, even in games that carry the smallest house edge, like blackjack with smart play.

Dear Mark: My favorite video poker machine offers a double-up feature. It seems like an even-up bet to me. Is it? If it is, should I keep doubling up? Greg M.

For those outside the lingo, some video poker machines offer Double Up, the option of risking your current winning hand for a chance at doubling your money. Typically, it's high/low against a machine-dealt playing card. This Double Up bet involves five cards being drawn face down. The house draws one card first and then player must choose one of the remaining four cards. The player who draws a higher card than that drawn by the house, is paid 1-to-1 on the wager. The Double Up offer continues after each win until the player begs to be excused or loses.

At first whiff, many players believe this is just another way for the casino to pillage your wallet. Not so, my friends. In fact, it ‘s actually one of the best bets in the casino. No house edge means a 50-50 chance of your doubling your money, if, that is, ties are a push, and not a casino win. If ties are pushed, the game is fair, with an expected value of 100%. But if ties are considered a house win, then the Double Up bet has a house edge of 5.8%.

One other thing, Greg. Let's say your favorite casino is philanthropic and pushes ties, giving you a 50-50 chance of winning. The wager can become heavily stacked against you if your goal is to string a dozen wins together.

As well, don't plan on doubling as often as you wish. We all fantasize champagne wishes and caviar dreams, like winning 19 hands in a row with a $2.50 investment and becoming an instant millionaire. I'm sorry to say, just as in the table games where table limits apply, the compounding of money by parlaying winnings won't work here either. Machines limit the doubling from as little as five times in a row to 10,000 coins returned ($2,500).

So the long and short of it, Greg, is to show some strong money management (cash control) and play this wager without going overboard.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: I think we consider too much the luck of the early bird, and not enough the bad luck of the early worm. --Franklin Delano Roosevelt

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Column Mark-Pilarski Blackjack Double-down Video-poker

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