Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

January 9, 2009

While all liars figure, some figures can lie

Dear Mark: I need to settle this argument. I play Pai Gow Poker, and to me, other than a copy hand, I see it as an even game, since there have been many times where I did not have a copy hand all night, or very, very, few of them. So from a dealt hand, I would say it is a 50/50 proposition on who will win.

My buddy, Tom, plays Three Card Poker, with the ante only bet, no pair plus. He says he wins more than loses. Well to me, if he puts down 10 bucks, and has low three cards, he just folds, without knowing what the dealer was holding. That's 10 bucks gone! Who gets to buy the beer next time at the casino? Myron A.

"Who gets to buy the beer next time at the Casino could be construed one of two ways. Who's making the smarter wager and Who will lose less money on each casino visit? Sound theoretical answers to follow.

Let's start off with Ton's play. By making the Ante wager at Three Card Poker, Tom's simply betting his 3-card hand against the dealer's hand. Let's also assume that Tom uses the correct strategy when playing Three Card Poker, that being, anytime he has a Queen-6-4 or higher, he follows his Ante with a bet, and if it's lower, he folds. Played this way, all he's giving up to the casino is 2.1%.

With your Pai Gow Poker game, Myron, you win if you defeat the banker on both your front and back hands, lose if the banker beats you on both hands, but can also lose if you "copy," or push, since a copy always goes to the banker.

You're right, Myron, those "copy" hands materialize once in a blue moon, but they DO occur, and that's where the house gets its 2.5% advantage over your play.

So, you'd think the winner is... ta da ...Tom playing the game with the lower casino advantage of 2.1%; but, don't reach for your wallet, Myron, because I'm not declaring a winner, at least yet.

Pai Gow Poker can be really slow; sometimes no more than 40 hands in an hour are actually played to completion. Compare that to Three Card Poker, which, although it's a lower house-edge play, is a much faster game where 150 decisions can be made in an hour.

Here's the math, Myron, on why -- IF your beer bet is based on who loses more money per hour -- you win.

If you were to play Pai Gow Poker at $10 a hand, 40 hands an hour, giving the house 2.5%, you would lose, over the long run, just $10 per hour.

With Three Card Poker at $10 a hand, and even with a lower house edge of only 2.1%, by Tom seeing 150 decisions per hour, he would have an hourly loss of $31.50.

Here's a suggestion, Myron. Make those drink wagers based on whether Tom actually "wins more than he loses." Against a negative expectation game, which Three Card Poker is, no matter how you play it, it's more of a sure bet.

Dear Mark: We have Full pay "Jacks or Better" machines in the casino where I play. Your previous column showed the difference between 9/6 machines and that of 8/5 and 7/5. I'm wondering if I'm giving up anything when I play a coin or two short? Hal S.

With payoffs beginning at a pair of jacks or better, "Jacks or Better" is the most common variation of video poker available. For those who missed the column you mentioned, Hal, Full pay Jacks or Better is also known as 9/6 Jacks or Better; the 9 refers to the payoff for a full house and the 6 refers to the payoff for a flush. When played with perfect strategy and the maximum coin amount, Full pay Jacks or Better has a theoretical return of 99.54%.

Players who do not play with the maximum number of coins, and by the way, Hal, it doesn't matter if you were to play one, two, three or four coins/credits, find that the theoretical return is reduced to 98.05%.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Many gamblers are actors. They consider the seat at the table their stage. --Mike Goodman, How To Win

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Column Mark-Pilarski Pai Gow Three Card Poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

January 2, 2009

Where did Bugsy hide the FULL-PAYS?

Dear Mark: I have experienced what you state about two machines sitting next to each other with different payouts, such as 9/6 and 8/5, and so on. My question is when a nickel machine lists 9/6, and a quarter machine also lists 9/6, does the player on the nickel machine playing five nickels get the same payout odds as he is getting for a quarter machine? Red D.

I haven't seen a true, "full pay," 9/6 Jacks or Better nickel machine since Bugsy Siegel opened the Flamingo. Okay, I'm a bit off on the timeline in that I wasn't born yet, and Video Draw Poker didn't appear until 1979, but truth be told, it's been many, many moons since I've sat in front of one.

Shrewd video poker players understand the difference between full-pay and partial-pay machines. The full-payers shell out the maximum for each winning hand; the partials don't. For instance, if you can find a full-pay Jacks or Better nickel machine that pays 9 coins for a full house, 6 for a flush, and 2 for two pair, you can expect a return rate, if each hand is correctly played, of approximately 99.5%, making it an attractive machine to be playing on. Possibly, Red, that 9/6 nickel machine you speak of may return 9-for-1 on a Full House, and 6-for-1 for a Flush, but it probably is considered a partial-pay machine because the machine only pays 1-for-1 for two pairs.

As to your question, Red, all things being equal, the nickel paytable looks like this, Royal flush 250-for-1; Straight Flush 50-for-1; Four of a kind 25-for-1; Full House 9-for-1; Flush 6-for-1; Straight 4-for-1; Three-of-a-Kind 3-for-1; Two Pair 2-for-1; pair of Jacks or Better 1-for-1, yes, the payout odds would be exactly the same on a similar quarter machine. Otherwise, just by getting paid even money on two pairs, you're giving the house an extra five-plus percent on your play.

Dear Mark: Won't the dramatic drop in slots play at casinos due to the economy also dramatically drop the payouts, since the number of spins is greatly reduced? If so, doesn't this increase the house edge well above the already sinful double digits they now enjoy? N.D.

Since each yank of the handle is a random independent event, no matter if it's the first or the kazillionth, the percentages of "house edge," and of payout to you, would remain the same. The casino "hold," what the casino anticipates to be its win, would also be unaffected. The "hold" percentage is nothing more than the ratio of coins the casino keeps to the total coins inserted, which is measured over an eight hour period, then by the day, month, quarter, etc. For example, if a slot machine in a particular casino has a payback of 92%, the expected casino hold on this game is 8%, and that wouldn't change due to lack of play.

What changes, if there is a downturn in action, would be the casino "drop". Also known as the Gross Casino Win, the casino drop refers to the total amount of money collected by the casino from any one -- or from all -- gaming machines, whether in cash, coins, or both.

Since the actual total value of all money received by the casino from all players, all games combined, has been reduced significantly during this current economic decline, the casino drop is reduced, but not your chances of winning.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The lamb that thinks he's a lion is the mother's milk of gamblers. --Pat Bush, How to Win the World Series of Poker

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Tags: Video-poker Casino

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

December 26, 2008

System worth at least $0.01

Dear Mark: Do you know anything about Gary Cline's (author of Beat the Odds Blackjack) blackjack system? His book goes against the traditional blackjack strategy. In the book he also talks about a method of winning and money management system. He charges $2k for the system, and I just wanted to check around with some gaming writers to see if they have heard of it and if it is worth it. Todd P.

Casino operators, Todd, don't spend a gazillion bucks building mega-resorts so that some "system player," surfing down a fat two thousand, can come in and tar-n-feather them. The only benefit that I can see to your spending 2K on Cline's system is that any casino owner alive would happily send a limousine for you so long as you have a certified bankroll.

So let's go the calm and rational route, Todd. Amazon, as of this writing, has available 17 used and new copies of his book, Beat the Odds Blackjack, starting at $0.01.

The premise of his book, and in all probability the basic dictum of his system, is that the average player can win at blackjack through understanding the percentages of every combination of cards. As you close in on the back cover, supposedly you'll be able to analyze your hands quickly, calculate the odds in a trice, and make the right moves to maximize your profits.

Does it work? Not sure. I haven't read it, and reviews on it are very limited. But I am picking up a copy pronto for a penny.

Dear Mark: A couple of weeks ago our newspaper carried your column about the court cards. It prompted me to dig around and find a book that I inherited about forty years ago entitled Playing Cards by W. Gurney Benham. It was published in England in 1931. It has 242 illustrations, many in color, where the knaves (jacks) are standing and all the queens are holding flowers. It's mostly about English cards, but there's quite a bit about cards in other countries, too. Everything you said is in there, along with some alternative versions. Also, included are many pencil notations by an unknown previous owner who doesn't always agree and sounds rather authoritarian about it. Anyway, just wanted to let you know that I always find your answers interesting, but the playing card trivia column was definitely a winner and prompted some more fun reading about cards. Vernell C.

I'm glad you enjoyed the column, Vernell. The trivia part of gambling has always been a favorite of mine to write about, and doing so does get its fair share of further inquires in the mailbag.

As a kid, I was captivated by the distinguishing motifs on playing cards, not to the point that the composition of a deck of cards had some religious, astronomical or metaphysical significance, but far enough to wonder why the King of Diamonds (the suicide king) is trying to kill himself with an axe, the significance of "one-eyed" cards, (Jack of Spades, Jack of Hearts, and King of Diamonds), or the mystery of the black queens, Argine, known as the "Flower Queen," although all of the queens today do hold them, and Athena.

Ah, yes, my favorite, Athena, the queen of spades. When I pitched cardboard, I forever followed this "Black Lady" through the deck, believing, erroneously mind you, that it made many a player money (the good tippers), and busting others (the stiffs).

Dear Mark: Is it ever advantageous to split 5s in blackjack?

Splitting 5s is a no-no. A total of 10 is a great hand to double down on when the dealer is showing 2 through 9, because your two 5s have increased the percentage of 10s in the remaining pack.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: My father told me that he quit playing poker because he liked the game too much. --A. D. Livingston, Poker Strategy

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Tags: Blackjack 21 Cards

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

December 19, 2008

Player's recall might be slightly off

Dear Mark: I like to play Video Blackjack on 25 cent machines. Do you know if these machines are dealt randomly from a deck of 52 or are they "fixed" to give me fewer blackjacks? It seems I never get my fair share of blackjacks compared to a table game, nor seem to win as much. Bill H.

Video blackjack, Bill, is dealt from a randomly shuffled 52-card electronic deck, and each card has an equal chance of being dealt. Cards are shuffled by a computer program called a random number generator, and hand probabilities are the same as if a live dealer were shuffling a physical deck of cards.

Yet, when it comes to gambling, human memory can be very selective. If you were to actually track your blackjacks over, say, 100,000 hands, you would find that you will have been dealt natural blackjacks on a video blackjack machine as frequently as in a live table game: 4.83% of the time.

The reason you might be a little lighter in the billfold is that typically rules on video blackjack can differ adversely from those of table blackjack. You want to make sure that blackjacks pay 3 to 2, and that the rules on doubling and splitting are equal to those of a live table game. Otherwise, plan on the casino's having a higher edge on your video play.

Dear Mark: They did it again. Here you have me trained to search out the best paytables on video poker machines and they keep changing what a full house and flush play. I'll keep looking, but how much am I really giving up when they change from a 8/5 machine to a 7/5 one? Sue L.

Because it is illegal for casinos to fiddle with the relative frequency of winning hands, all they have to do in order to change payback percentages is to change the payoffs. If the game is a 9-6 Jacks or better (meaning full houses pay 9-for-1 and flushes pay 6-for-1), the machines will return 99.5% over the long run with optimal play.

A Jacks or Better machine that pays 8-for-1 on full houses and 5-for-1 on flushes returns 97.3 %, and what's the latest, NOT greatest at your casino, a 7-5 machine, returns only 96.2 percent.

Since all big cats look alike in tall grass, the tiger hunt is forever on you to locate and scrutinize each paytable and find which ones give you the lowest house edge. At least you're on the chase; most players, to their sorrow, are not.

Dear Mark: In my most recent escapade to a casino I hit a $1,655 nickel progressive while my husband won about $5,800 playing blackjack. I get hit with a W-2G while he walks out of the casino with nothing more than a smile on his face. I'm not complaining, but is that fair? Jan H.

Getting socked a W-2G for winnings of $1200 while your husband gloats over his score just doesn't seem fair. For giggles though, you could wipe that smirk off his face and say that ALL gambling winnings are technically taxable, even if he wasn't issued traceable paperwork.

Even though table game players don't encounter any government paperwork until they hit $10,000, you're right, machine players do get whacked with paperwork for a whole lot less. According to Uncle Sam, the casino must issue you a W2-G form if a bingo or slot machine win is above $1,200, or the net proceeds from a keno win are greater than $1,500.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Many gamblers are actors. They consider the seat at the table their stage. --Mike Goodman, How To Win

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Tags: Video-blackjack 21 Video-poker W-2g

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

December 12, 2008

Finders Keepers?

Dear Mark: Thanks for sharing your great insights about gambling in the casinos. Reading your material quells lots of myths about how slot machines react to gamblers.
My question is, are there general casino rules concerning money that a customer finds left on a slot machine, or if when the Player's Club card is inserted a voucher prints out with money on it? Can the customer keep the findings? Grady K.

According to them, and we all know who them is, 'taint yours.

"Sea gulling," i.e. purposively circling the casino looking for orphan credits on a slot machine, vouchers, change on the floor, chips under roulette wheels, or half eaten sandwiches in the coffee shop, is illegal.

That doesn't mean there are not opportunists making a full-time occupation of cruising the casino and scavenging the millions lost each year by gamblers who forget their stored credits (winnings).

Clearly, you're not a slot stalker looking for an easy score. But a tip to you and other slot-playing patrons: before you walk away from any slot machine, don't forget to press the cash-out button. Millions are lost each year by gamblers forgetting their stored credits.

Dear Mark: You mentioned that with automatic shuffling machines there isn't any basic strategy differences from a multi-deck game versus an automatic shuffler. What the same hold true for card counters? Charlie M.

Card counters, Charlie, actually gain a small mathematical edge over the house by betting more money when the composition of the deck(s) favors the player, less when the deck favors the dealer.

As I stated, automatic shufflers don't affect the odds of the game for basic strategy players, average players, or even you, Charlie, whatever your skill level is, but continuous shufflers make blackjack impracticable for card counters to ever know what the true composition of the deck is, so counters avoid them like the plague. Counters fare far better on hand-shuffled games.

Nevertheless, I must reiterate that continuous shufflers hurt all other players. If the dealer never has to stop to shuffle, giving you the opportunity to badger the dealer with questions like, where are you from (it's usually on their name tag), do you live here (no, I'm from Mars, I commute) you'll see an increased number of hands dealt per hour, yielding a richer opportunity for the built-in casino advantage to work against your billfold.

On average, Charlie, plan on losing more money per hour against continuous shufflers, followed by non-continuous automatic shufflers, followed by what you should be seeking out in the first place, hand-shuffled games.

Dear Mark: In Jacks-or-better video poker, is it ever appropriate to break up a high pair? Harry F.

You should always break up a pair of Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces for a one-card draw to a four-card straight flush, four-card inside straight flush, or a royal flush.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Poker is a mental game. Success does not depend on how high you can jump, how fast you can run or how much you can lift. Psychological maneuvering, assessing your opponents, recognizing situations, and creating deceptions are keys to success in poker. --Russel Fox & Scott T. Harker, Mastering No-Limit Hold'em

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Tags: Gambling-column Pilarski Slots Blackjack Video-poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

December 5, 2008

Dear Mark: Is there any way of lowering the casino's 1.5 percent edge on a pass line bet by hedging it somewhere else on the table? Brad D.

If you're thinking of those snake oil proposition bets pitched by barking dealers (hardways, field bets, one number rolls, etc.), absolutely not. Some of those flummadiddle wagers can carry a casino edge as high as 16 percent. But there is a way, Brad, of considerably lowering the house advantage on your pass line bet, and that's by taking free odds. "FREE ODDS?" Whaddat? Listen up.

Distinct from all other craps wagers, free odds carry NO house edge. That's right, zip, zilch, nada. All bets are paid off at true odds.

For instance, let's say that you bet $5 on the pass line and the point is 10. On a double-odds table, where you are allowed to make an odds bet twice the size of your original pass bet, you are allowed to back your pass line bet with $10 in free odds.

The odds against your winning are 2-1, because with two six-sided dice, there are six ways of making a 7 (loser) and three ways of making a winner 10. If you win, your pass line bet is paid at even money, bringing you $5 in winnings, but your odds bet is paid at the 2-1 true odds, bringing you an additional $20.

The house edge is actually 1.41 percent on your pass line wager (not quite 1.5 percent as in your question), but backing it with free odds brings the overall edge on the combination down to well under one percent.

With single odds, the house edge on the pass with odds grouped together drops to 0.8 percent. Per my example above, double odds, the house edge drops to 0.6 percent, 10x odds, 0.2 percent and 0.02 percent with 100x odds.

Dear Mark: I got my dream hand, or so I thought at Pai Gow Poker. Four Aces, the Joker, plus a King and a Queen. I played it this way. The King and Queen up front, five aces in the back. I won the hand, but another player on the game said I should have played it differently. What's your take? Kenny L.

Congratulations, Kenny, on getting the highest hand possible In Pai Gow poker, a hand composed of four Aces, and the joker, which can be used either as an Ace or to complete flushes or straights.

A quick refresher for those not familiar with Pai Gow Poker: each player is dealt seven cards with which he must make two hands based on poker rankings -- a front hand of two cards and a back hand of five cards. The five-card hand must outrank the two-card hand. In the play you described, you put the King/Queen up front, but was it the right move?

Granted, you won, but the King/Queen two-card hand might not have been powerful enough, because, although there was no way possible for the dealer to beat your five-card hand, the rules of Pai Gow Poker are that you win only if you defeat the banker on both your front and back hands.

A "copy," or push, always goes to the banker, and a King/Queen would only have given you bragging rights to catching five Aces against a banker's kind King/Queen, and it would definitely lose in the front against a small pair. Keeping those five Aces together puts your weak two-card hand at risk.

The correct way to play five aces is to separate them, using two Aces in the two-card "second-high" hand, and three Aces in the five-card "high" hand.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The boring thing about video poker is that once you learn the correct strategy, unlike real poker, there's nothing left to learn. --VP Pappy

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Tags: Craps Pai Gow Poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 28, 2008

Smaller Bankroll Needed for Video Poker

Dear Mark: Taking your advice, any time I'm given the choice, I play video poker over slots. My question is, do you still need the same sized session bankroll for video poker as you would for slots? Dana S.

Your bankroll, Dana, the money you will need to set aside specifically for playing video poker, would be less than you'd set aside for slots, because poker machines tend to have higher hit frequencies than do slot machines.

A session bankroll for video poker would be the amount for 75 hands, which should be enough to keep you playing for a couple hours. For slots, 100-plus hands would be the minimum, although both sums, Dana, could fall far short when you're having one of those "takin' a lickin'" days.

Dear Mark: My husband left a cold video poker machine and within two minutes someone else sat down on the machine he was playing and instantly hit a four-of-a-kind, followed a few minutes later by a royal flush. Would another $10 in that machine have gotten him the same hands? Sherry F.

I share your disappointment, Sherry, in giving up on a cold machine, only to see someone else plop down in front of it and good fortune suddenly blesses the newcomer.

Yet, the chill comfort I can provide you is in letting you know that all machines cycle through thousands and thousands of outcomes each and every second. Your husband would have had to hit the deal button at the exact same instant that the following player did in order to have had that four-of-a-kind, let alone the royal. A millisecond difference, earlier or later, would have produced a less juicy outcome.

Dear Mark: Unless you tell the dealer otherwise, place bets are always "off" on the come-out roll. Why is that? Isn't one roll of the dice be as good as any other roll of the dice? Mike P.

You're correct, Mike, in that the house edge on place bets is exactly the same as if you have them working on the come-out, or any other roll.

The reason most players who have a wager on the pass line as well as a place number and want the place numbers off is that they're not interested in being a winner on the pass line, and simultaneously a loser on the place bets if a 7 were to roll. They prefer leaving their place bets in an indeterminate state for a roll; that way, if the shooter rolls a 7 on the come-out, they win on the pass line, and their place bets are still alive. If a point number appears (4, 5 ,6, 8, 9, 10), they can then root against the 7 on both the pass and place bets alike.

Dear Mark: The Indian casino where I play replaced all of their remaining two- deck handheld and shoe games with automatic shuffling machines. Is there any basic strategy differences from a multi-deck game versus an automatic shuffler? Will J.

Even though there are no basic strategy differences required to play on automatic shuffle machines, if it's not the only game in town, my first bit of advice, Will, is to shuffle your feet out of the casino and find yourself a hand-dealt game.

Sure, there are some studies that show that continuous automatic shufflers actually reduce the house edge against basic strategy players, but such reduction is not enough to offset the approximately 20 percent increase in the number of hands you'll see per hour.

Increasing hands-per-hour generally multiplies the benefits-per-hour for the entity with the built-in edge, and even though you're playing basic strategy, continuous shuffling machines and non-continuous shufflers alike will take more of a bite out of your bankroll than will a hand-shuffled game, giving the house more of an opportunity for the casino advantage to peck away at your bankroll.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The attraction of gambling is the possibility of wealth without work. --San Braids, The Intelligent Guide To Texas Hold'em Poker

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Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Vp Blackjack

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 21, 2008

A little bar stool trivia on cards

Dear Mark: Is there any way of producing luck when you gamble? Wendy P.

Producing luck? Sure! You will always have more luck in the long run at games where the casino has a small house edge versus games where the casino has a large house edge. You've read it here before, and I'll state it again; The smarter you play, the luckier you'll be.

Indeed, Wendy, though it's possible to have good fortune making bad bets on bad games, don't bet on such outlandish lucky streaks happening with any frequency.

Dear Mark: It seems every time I play one coin instead of three coins in a slot machine, I seem to hit more payouts. Are the machines set to pay less when you play more coins? John S.

You didn't mention where you play, but in every gaming jurisdiction that I'm familiar with, which is pretty much the whole US market, it is illegal for a slot machine to determine which symbols will land on which payline based on the number of coins played.

You will, though, have a higher long-term payback when you play the maximum coin amount. But that's just because some combinations pay more when you play maximum coin. What doesn't change are the chances of landing on paying combinations, whether you played, one, two, or the maximum number of coins.

Dear Mark: In last week's column you stated that the suit of spades reflects nobility in the structure of medieval society. As a bit of a card trivia buff, I was always under the impression that spades represented the Middle East of biblical times. Is there a different interpretation that I am unfamiliar with? Tomas H.

The introduction, manner, and interpretations of what both the suits and the Kings, Queens and Jacks (Knaves) on them represent are forever a matter of dispute. Your version represents civilizations that have influenced our culture. Hearts the Holy Roman Empire, diamonds the Roman Empire, clubs Greece, and as you state correctly, spades the Middle East of biblical times.

Another depiction, comes from France, the culture having had the greatest influence on the creation of the modern deck of cards. They combined the knight and page, reduced the size of the deck to 52 cards, and simplified the suit symbols in 1480 to red for diamonds and hearts, black spades and trefoils (clover leaves). The four suits reflecting the structure of the medieval society: hearts---priesthood; spades---nobility; clubs---peasantry; diamonds---the wealthy merchant class.

There are many theories about whom the court cards represent, one of the most common being that the Kings in a deck of cards represent famous rulers; the king of spades is King David, the king of clubs is Alexander the Great, the king of hearts is Charlemagne, and the king of diamonds is Julius Caesar.

As for the king's better half, the queen of spades, the only armed queen in the deck, represents Athena, who used the epithet "Pallas," the Greek goddess of war. The queen of diamonds is Rachel, the second wife of Jacob. The queen of clubs is Argine, an anagram of Regina, signifying queen. The queen of hearts is Judith of Bavaria, daughter-in-law of Charlemagne.

The jack of spades represents Ogier the Dane, a knight of Charlemagne, clubs, Judas Maccabeus, one of the greatest warriors in Jewish history, hearts, La Hire, a French military commander who fought alongside Joan of Arc, and diamonds, the Trojan prince, Hector.

A propos Biblical times, or at least the Bible, did you know that after Johann Gutenberg finished printing the 1,284-page Gutenberg Bible run, having invented the printing press in 1455, the next impressions he made were of playing cards?

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Poker is a godless game filled with random pain. --Andy Bloch, Bigger Deal

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 14, 2008

Will a Roll of Quarters 4.5 Yards Long Last the Weekend?

Dear Mark: Is $600 enough of a bankroll for playing quarter slots for a weekend casino trip? Theresa S.

That depends, Theresa, on which quarter machines you chose to play and the speed at which you play them.

A $600 bankroll on a two and three-coin machine should be enough to keep you playing for a weekend just so long as you're not Speedy-Gonzales-fast when hitting the credit button.

Characteristically, a player yanks a handle or pushes a button once every ten seconds. On a 3-coin quarter machine, wagering 75 cents per spin, that's $4.50 per minute, or $270 per hour.

Since the average quarter machine returns approximately 92% to the player, over the long run you will lose around $22 for every hour of play. Four, four-hour sessions will cost you $352, which is less than your stated bankroll. Simple "Rithmetic," Theresa, states you probably won't tap out and that $600 is enough.

Yet I couldn't help thinking of those quarters, each 1.75 mm thick, in one immense coin roller, stretching 4.5 yards, and why it won't work on all quarter machines. A $600 bankroll wouldn't be enough for a multi-coin/multi-line slot machine where you're betting 50 quarters per spin, buying you fewer than 50 spins. If you're on a cold machine, you could bust after 10 minutes of play

Another alternative, Theresa, is that I sweet-talk you into playing video poker instead. Even poor play on a video poker machine will give you a better payback than most "reel" slot machines do, and that $600 bankroll will last even longer.

Dear Mark: I was hoping that you can settle a argument between me and a friend of mine. He is insisting that the highest hand in poker is a royal flush in SPADES. Everyone else states that a royal flush is the highest hand no matter what suit, and a spade royal would not beat another royal if both were in the same deal. Years ago my friend's mother used to have high stakes games at her house. I am sure if you have a game at your house you can make your own rules, just as long as all players know about them, but generally speaking, there is no such thing as spades ranking supreme. Steve P.

If your friend's mother is gracious enough to let her card club spill beer and chip dip all over her carpet, she can make the rules of the house, and spades, which reflects nobility in the structure of medieval society, I guess ranks supreme in her house.

At our kitchen table Pinochle game, my Mom's rule was that spades paid double, so you would always try to grab the bid, even if your chances were slim of making it.

But in the casino, no poker game, video or otherwise, is suit specific on any hand. Occasionally though, a casino will have a promotion with designated video poker machines paying higher jackpots if certain straights, flushes or royals are in a particular suit. There are also a few video poker machines that pay a mega-jackpot if you hit a royal flush in a predetermined suit with cards in sequential order (Example: 10 of spades, J, Q, K and Ace of spades), but what plays as an occasional promotion on a video poker machine will get you a baffled stare in any poker room.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Winning enhances your self-esteem faster than a year's worth of psychotherapy. --Cat Hulbert, Outplaying the Boys

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 7, 2008

When in doubt, let the house set your hand

Dear Mark: As someone new to Pai Gow Poker, would you a) play the game, and b) advise letting the dealer set my hand since I'm a beginner? Pat T.

Pai Gow Poker is a variant of American seven-card poker. It is played with a standard 52-card deck and a joker, but differs from the typical seven-card game in that you play against a banker, not against the other players at the table.

Each player is dealt seven cards with which he must make two hands based on poker rankings -- a front hand of two cards and a back hand of five cards. The five-card hand must outrank the two-card hand.

You win if you defeat the banker on both your front and back hands. You lose only if the banker beats you on both hands. A "copy," or push, always goes to the banker.

I see no reason why you, as a newbie, wouldn't want the house to set you hand correctly, mostly because the casino advantage on the game will be lower if they do, and, as someone new to Pai Gow Poker, you are prone to make two typical novice-errors. You risk failing to see a five-card flush, and/or you risk incorrectly setting your hands when dealt two pairs. Two-pair hands appear fairly often, and setting them correctly is incredibly important. (Note: Here's the quick rule of thumb for playing two pairs: If your hand has either an unmatched Ace or King, keep the two pairs in your five-card hand. If you have neither, play the lower-ranking pair as the two-card hand.)

So what's the house edge by having the house set your hand? Two and a half percent, about the same as if you were to use perfect basic strategy.

Now, Pat, let's talk about that 2.5% for just a moment. At first glance, you'll note it's higher than my ageless recommendation: "never give the casino higher than a 2% edge." But with this negative expectation game, slow is good, very good.

Pai Gow Poker can be really slow; sometimes no more than 40 hands in an hour are actually played to completion. Compare that to Mini-baccarat, which, although a lower house-edge play, is an extremely fast game where 200 decisions can be made in an hour.

Here's the arithmetic, Pat, on why it's not such a bad play. If you were to play Pai Gow Poker at $5 a hand, 40 hands an hour, giving the house 2.5%, you would lose, over the long run, just $5 per hour. With Mini-baccarat at $5 a whack, and even though the house edge is only 1.17%, if you were to play just the Banker hand, by seeing 200 decisions an hour, you would have an hourly loss of $11.70.

Pai Gow Poker, even as a beginner and allowing the house to set your hand, is pretty cheap entertainment, Pat, for a measly five bucks an hour.

Dear Mark: Often in your column you mention the benefits of basic strategy in blackjack. Basic strategy tells us to always hit a 16. Isn't the smart move to let the dealer bust instead, even if he has a 7-10 showing? Ted R.

The Basic strategy I often mention in this column is a set of computer-derived rules for playing every hand against every possible dealer up-card.

Let's examine your hand example, the one we all get, all of the time, that god- awful 16. If you hit this crappy hand, you will bust over 60 percent of the time. The other option is to stand and let the dealer bust out. The problem is that when you stand as well, you will lose approximately 70 percent of the time.

The dealer's chances of having a 17 or more when he shows a 7, 8, 9, 10 or ace are between 74% and 83%. For that reason, correct basic strategy dictates that you always hit your 16.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Don't fight a battle if you don't gain anything by winning. --General George Patton
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Tags: Gambling Column Mark-Pilarski Pai-Gow-Poker Blackjack

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 31, 2008

Progressives are in no way a "Cluck-for-the-Buck" deal

Dear Mark: I enjoy playing those super jackpot progressive slot machines because it gives me the greatest return for a small investment. Is this sound and sensible gambling? Oliver P.

It is a mistaken belief, Oliver, shared by scores of slot players, that you are only making a small investment in an attempt to win big jackpots when you play progressive slots. This false impression, for those who play progressives, is that for a few bucks you get a shot at a champagne wishes and caviar dreams lifestyle. The problem, Oliver, is that you're probably going to end up losing most of your money, most of the time, chasing your imaginary castle in the sky.

What's not figured in your comfy fantasy is that progressive slots come with a casino edge in the double digits, as high as 20 percent. Meaning, Oliver, over the long run, for every dollar you insert, the casino is going to keep 20 cents of it.

So there you are, Oliver, sitting down for a six hour stint in front of your favorite progressive. If you are a dollar player, playing the maximum three coins a pop to get a crack at the top prize, you'll hit the "Bet Max" button 240 times an hour, and that's slow playing mind you, and all of a sudden you've just cycled $4,320 (240 spins X $3 X 6hrs) through the machine. Now back off 20 percent - that's the $864 the casino is looking forward to banking from your wallet -- and I'm not sure where your idea of "small investment" emanates from.

If you were to go to a casino a baker's dozen times in a year (one visit per month, twice in February cause it's your birthday), you are really wagering $56,160. The 20 percent cut the casino is going to swallow is $11,232, so once again I ask you, where does that idea of small investment come from?

Did I mention that some of these progressive jackpots have a one in 16,777,216 chance of being hit?

Dear Mark: Do those $25 video poker 9/6 machines you see in the high roller room return the same as a dollar 9/6 game? I was told because you are playing so much per hand, even if the paytables are exactly the same, the return would be better the higher the denomination. Bill S.

You were told wrong, Bill. All paytables, being equal, will give you the exact same return, but as for net profitability, that isn't necessarily so.

A 9-6 Jacks or Better machine will return 99.5 percent over the long haul with expert play regardless of whether the game takes quarters, dollars, or $125 per hand ($25 X 5).

The problem with the higher denomination machines is that you have certain hands that will trigger IRS-level jackpots, for instance, a hand pay for a four-of-a-kind or a straight flush on a $25 machine.

With hands of this type, you run into the rule that the casino is required to have you sign an IRS form W-2G before they can pay you any jackpot of $1,200 or more.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Deep down, in the final analysis, women gamblers are no different than men. They too have the gambling itch, and in today's world they scratch it with relative impunity and anonymity. --Deke Castleman, Whale Hunt in the Desert

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Tags: Gambling Column Mark_Pilarski Progressive Video_poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 24, 2008

Negative Expectations we cherish and suffer

Dear Mark: Although I seldom win anything, I do enjoy playing video keno. Is there any advice you could give me to improve my chances of winning? Kaye S.

The reason you seldom win anything, Kaye, is because keno is a negative-expectation game that has a higher casino edge than most games the casino has to offer. On the plus side, with video keno, the medium house advantage compared to that in a live keno game is much lower. For a live keno game it's 28%, whereas with video keno it is 7.5%.

Why lower you ask? Video keno simply has better paytables, but that doesn't necessarily mean video keno is a better entertainment deal for the evening. At $1 a ticket, the most you could lose on a live game over an hour is about $15, that being the average number of games called per hour. A typical video keno player can burn through $15 worth of quarters in mere minutes.

Which leads me to my first bit of advice. Only bet what you can afford to lose. And just as important, the slower you play, the less hard-earned money you'll put through the shredder.

Also, Kaye, hunt for the highest-paying paytables. Scrutinize each paytable to find which one gives you the lowest house edge. Oh yeah, and don't forget to use your slot club card to offset the losses you can, no, will, experience on such a negative-expectation game.

As for strategy, sorry, Kaye, but like the emperor's new clothes, there isn't any. The numbers are chosen at random and each draw is independent, so playing providential numbers you think are lucky, or numbers you feel are "due," just doesn't work. (A friend of a friend uses the numbers out of Fortune cookies, but he borrows bus fare to go home.)

Dear Mark: Between these three games, Three Card Poker, Caribbean Stud and Let It Ride, which game offers the player the best bet? Tom G.

Although it lacks a progressive jackpot, as does Caribbean Stud, or decent sized payoff for a royal as in Let It Ride in a casino environment, I would recommend of the three, Three Card Poker, simply because the casino advantage is lower on select bets among the three games you mentioned.

With Caribbean Stud, the best you can hope for is a casino edge of about 5.2% based on the player's ante wager, or 2.6% based on the ante and call bet. As for the progressive wager, the average house edge is over 26%, depending, of course, on the size of the jackpot.

As for Let it Ride, even if you played the game flawlessly, the casino's edge on Let-It-Ride is 3.51%. And, oh! let's keep track of those Let-It-Ride side bets where for $1 you are offered an additional payoff with certain paying hands; those bets carry a double-digit casino advantage.

As regards Three Card poker, it depends on whether you like your cards or not; I'll rephrase that---on whether you should like your cards. The house edge is 3.37% against the Ante alone, but only 2.01% against your Queen-6-4, if you decide to make the Play bet. With a Pair Plus wager, the casino advantage is slightly higher at 2.32%.

As you can see, Tom, Three Card Poker, offers better wagers for the player, and although the casino advantage is above my suggested "never make a wager that has higher than a 2% house edge," it is tolerable, easy to learn, and plenty of players find it fun to play.

However, you knew this was coming, didn't you? ....You might want to think about giving Mini-Baccarat a try, or even blackjack, using perfect basic strategy. Each has a house edge well under two percent, beating the bejeebers out of all the table games mentioned above.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: No matter what our character, no matter what our behavior, no matter if we are ugly, unkind, murderers, saints, guilty sinners, foolish, or wise, we can get lucky. Mario Puzo, Inside Las Vegas (1976)

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 17, 2008

It Probably doesn't matter where you sit

Dear Mark: You mentioned in a recent column regarding 98% slot paybacks that "if you look closely at the casino advertisement, it will probably say, "on select machines." Typically that means dollar machines, but the return usually it is not posted on the machine itself, and generally will be limited to a single carousel of machines, or possibly just one or two slots." My question as to that comment is, on each machine on a carousel that are linked together, such as Megabucks, are the paybacks the same? Frances D.

The best answer I can give you, Frances, is probably.

In a carousel or bank of either video pokers or slots, the machines are typically hooked together so as to create progressive jackpots; still, each electronic machine within that network plays, and can be programmed to return such-and-such amount, independently.

You can presume, though, with some certainty that in most cases the paybacks are one and the same on all of the machines that are linked together, especially on a progressive carousel. And yet, Frances, there is no electronic reason why some machines couldn't be programmed to have higher or lower long-term paybacks than the others.

One casino I once worked in had different paybacks on all their "in-house progressive" carousel machines. Of course, the unsuspecting player never knew which machines were tighter than the others, and those stingy machines got just as much play as any other on the carousel.

But, using Megabucks as an example, although you are playing an individual machine, you are hooked up to a statewide network of progressive slot carousels linked together to produce those whopping payouts, and you should feel reasonably comfortable that each machine's payback percentage, albeit very low because it's a monster progressive, is the same as the payback percentage of all those it's linked to.

Dear Mark: I'm kind of new to the world of craps. The other night while playing I overheard a couple people talking about a put bet. Is there really such a thing as a put bet? And, if there were, why would casinos let you make this bet? Albie D.

When you bet on the Pass line, Albie, one of the following three things will occur:

· The next roll will be a 7 or 11, in which case you immediately win even money (1 for 1), or...

· b.) The next roll will be a 2, 3, or 12, in which case you immediately lose money, or...

· c.) The 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 will roll, becoming YOUR and the roller's point. If the shooter repeats the point on an ensuing roll, you win and are paid even money (1 for 1). If the "ugly 7" appears before the point repeats itself, you lose your Pass line wager.

A "Put" wager is a seldom-used bet that is made on the pass line after the crapshooter establishes their point. For instance, say you have no action on the pass line and the shooter rolls an eight. You can then "put" a bet down on the pass line and take the maximum odds.

The reason the casino permits you to make a "put" bet is because you skip the come-out seven and eleven, which has a 22.2% chance of winning, and only a 11.11% chance of losing. For the average crap player, it's not worth giving up the come out roll.

However, for the casinos that offer 10X, 50X and even 100X odds, a "put" bet isn't such a bad wager, especially on a $2 game. The higher odds will more than offset the seven/eleven come out advantage. But if the only casino where you play offers only 2X odds max, it is still more profitable to just make a pass line bet and take advantage of the come out seven/eleven.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Many bad players will not improve because they cannot bear self-knowledge. David Mamet, Things I learned Playing Poker on the Hill (1986)

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Tags: Slots Payback Craps

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 10, 2008


"Any Craps" would be a great hangman word

Dear Mark: Is there any chance that you could spend a portion of your column explaining the "any craps" bet on a crap game. In all the years you've been writing your column, I don't believe you have ever covered it. Buck D.

Yes, Buck, I have not explained the "Any Craps," bet in any drawn-out answer to a reader's question, but I have in the past briefly mentioned that it is a wager that you should definitely avoid. Now is no time to waste hard-earned money.

The bet is quite simple. Typically employed on the come out roll, an "any craps" bet is wagering that 2, 3, or 12 will be the result of the next roll of the dice.

By and large, most players make Pass Line bets and they win with a 7 or 11 on the come out roll, but lose if a 2, 3, or 12 appear. These three numbers are the "craps" numbers, and a bet on "any craps" is a combination bet on any one of those three numbers.

Pass line bettors in the dark like them because they want a "hedge" against their pass line bet -- which is where the "any craps" bet comes in. So instead of a flat loss of your pass line money if a 2, 3, or 12 rolls, it is "hedged" by winning an "any craps" bet.

Here's an example: Suppose you have a $10 bet on the pass line and you toss the dealer a $1 chip and yell out "Any craps!" He or she will place it in the "C" circle (for Craps) on the layout. Now you have two bets working, a pass line bet and an "any craps" wager. On the next toss of the dice, you will experience one of three things.

1) A point rolls, and your wager stays on the pass line but loses your $1 any craps bet or...

2) either 7 or 11 is tossed, and you win your pass line bet of $10, but you lose your $1 any craps bet. Here your net win would be $9 instead of $10, or, finally ...

3) a craps number rolls - either 2, 3 or 12, and you lose your pass line bet of $10 but win your $1 any craps bet, and you are paid 7 to 1. So, Buck, instead of losing $10 you would lose only $3.

Whether you play the "any craps" hedge bet is up to you, but I'm going to give this wager two thumbs down because the odds against any craps happening are 36 to 4 or 9 to 1. The correct payoff should be 8 to 1, but the casino is only willing to part with 7 to 1, creating a house edge on this one-roll bet of 11.1%.


Dear Mark: If a casino advertises 98% return on their slots, does that mean all of their machines, or is it specific denomination machines, return that amount back to the customer? Carol G.

If a casino advertises slots that return 98%, this does NOT mean that for each dollar you put in, you will automatically get back 98 cents. All that the 98% return means is that over the life cycle of that particular slot machine, it will average payoffs equal to 98% of all money inserted.

Also, Carol, if you look closely at the casino advertisement, it will probably say, "on select machines." Typically that means dollar machines, but the return usually it is not posted on the machine itself, and generally will be limited to a single carousel of machines, or possibly just one or two slots.

On top of that, it becomes your responsibility to find them. The easiest way is to ask a slot employee, and if he or she doesn't know, have one of them ask their direct supervisor. The secret here is to ask, ask, and ask.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Poker is a delicate dance of knowing when to stick your neck out and when to turn turtle. --John Vorhaus

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Tags: Craps Slots

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 3, 2008

Give those machines a more thorough physical

Dear Mark: As a video poker player, if finding a 9/6 machine is not too tough, finding one that pays 2 coins (for each coin bet) on two pair is even tougher. Most machines look like 9/6 but 1 coin returned for two pairs. When the "best" machine in the casino is a 9/6/1, is there a better advantage to playing the 8/5/2 version? Dan R.

First, Dan, do you mind if I ask you question? Are you sure the machines you speak of didn't pay a bonus on some of the four-of-a-kinds? I have to ask because your question omits vital information, notably the rest of the pay-table.

A standard Jacks-or-better full-pay machine typically returns 9-for-1 on a Full House, and 6-for-1 for a Flush. The full-versus-partial equation changes when the machine only pays 1-for-1 for two pairs. Most likely, you were playing on some hybrid Bonus Poker machine, where the payoff bonus for Four-of-a-Kind is reduced to 1-for-1.

But even if the paytable states four Aces pay 80-for-1; four 2s, 3s or 4s 40-for-1; four 5s through Kings 25-for-1, you could be giving the house an extra 5-plus percent on your play. Reducing the return on two-Pair hands penalizes the player too far, even with the increased payoffs on Four-of-a Kinds.

Now it's time to scare the bejesus out of you. Let's say there is no bonus for four-of-a-kinds. Assuming that the other paybacks on this machine are the same as 9/6 Jacks, these machines dribble back only a bankroll-busting 86.7%.

My recommendation is to keep looking for that Full Pay 9/6 machine where you are paid 2-for-1 for two Pair. If you can find it, you're getting a return of approximately 99.5%. Otherwise, your next best choice is to play the 8/5 machines that do pay 2 for two pair. They pay back about 97%.

Dear Mark: An interesting situation happened on a blackjack game that I hope you can help me out with. I'm playing two hands of blackjack at $20 a hand and I receive a 13 on one (6 and a 7) and a Jack and Queen for a 20 on the other. I toss $10 in front of both of my bets for insurance. Because it wasn't directly in front of either, the dealer asks me which bet I wanted to insure. Am I wrong in believing that obviously it was the 20 and the dealer should have known that, or did he know something I don't know? Ron L.

He may or may not have known, that it really doesn't make any difference whether you insure the 13 or the 20. Insuring a 13 is every bit as poor a wager as is insuring a 20. Both, Ron, are sucker bets.

But if you want to get really technical, insuring the 20 is actually the worse play, since you are holding at least two of the cards the dealer needs to make blackjack. Insuring a hand composed of two 10 cards, even on the most liberal single deck game, gives the house a 14.3% edge, making this one of the worst bets in the casino.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: One thing that a loser has that a winner doesn't have: lots of room for improvement. --VP Pappy

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Tags: Video_Poker Blackjack

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