Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 26, 2008

The Sure Win is at our Throats Again

Dear Mark: If card counters have a mathematical edge against the casino, isn't it impossible for them to lose? I guess my question is, as long as a player has that edge, they would always win, right? David D.

Yes, but you could go broke first. "Huh?"

Let's begin this exercise by flipping a coin and betting a buck a pop. But first, I am going to generously give you the same mathematical edge the best-of-the-best blackjack counters have over the game, two percent. So, David, every time you win, you will be paid one dollar and two pennies. Every time you lose, all you have to give me is a buck.

Theoretically, as your question suggests, you should win because flipping a coin is a 50-50 proposition, and I'm paying you more for a win ($1.02) than you are losing for a loss ($1). So after 200 flips, you should, in theory, win 100 flips and lose 100 flips and come out ahead by 200 pennies.

Now start flipping. I'm waiting, come on, hurry up.

Hmmmmm, did you happen to notice something peculiar after those 200 flips? My guess is it didn't exactly work out that we both won 100 times, allowing you to profit by those two dollars. Possibly you lost, and lost a lot.

You see, David, your edge is a long-term mathematical fact, but in the short run, anything can and often does happen; accordingly, any given gambling session must be considered an exercise in the "short run."

Your gambling timeline of 200 flips is far too short for the law of averages to fully shake itself awake, and for you to always win and show a two-dollar profit, you would need to view a substantial number of flips, enough flips to give you carpal tunnel syndrome, and more than you will ever make in a single session.

Now let's discuss that "broke first" poke I gave you in the first sentence.

We're going to flip a coin again with the same conditions as above. But this time, you only have a $50 bankroll and Yours Truly has what most casinos have, pretty much an unlimited war chest.

These would be similar to the conditions that most casino patrons play under, that being a small bankroll (yours) versus Fort Knox. You can get wiped out even with a two percent edge, simply because your $50 bankroll might not be able to sustain the fluctuations of probability inherent in a coin flip, or for that matter, a couple hundred hands of blackjack.

You just don't have enough money to weather the bad streaks that will inevitably come your way. Sure, David, you might have the edge, along with winning streaks, but never forget that edge is only mathematical. Bad luck happens, and can hang on longer than seems reasonable, sometimes to where you just plain run out of capital.

In real world casino gambling, the house with the unlimited bankroll, against your measly $50, is the entity with real edge.

Dear Mark: Every time I play slot machines, it seems I get ahead a decent amount, and then I give it all back to the casino chasing jackpots. Any solutions? Pauline B.

Here's a simple solution, Pauline: Don't chase jackpots. Instead, how about being satisfied with modest winnings. What you need to understand is that over time small winnings can add up to sizeable winnings, which gives you an opportunity to take a whack at the casino more often.

What you're caught up in is called-CHURN. You keep betting your winning credits. You recycle (churn) your money back through the cybernetic one-armed bandit until you either tap out, or hit "the big one," and the odds of hitting "the big one" can be millions and millions to one.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: You never bet enough on a winning horse. -Old Irish Mackinac proverb

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Tags: Card Counter Slots

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 19, 2008

Not all the important information is hidden

Dear Mark: In our state, we don't have access to slot payback percentages so we as players don't have a clue what that percentage is. Your advice in a past column called "slot tips" was to play video poker instead of slots, and yet, wouldn't that also be bad advice in that video poker is just as random as slots are? Theresa P.

Here's what I wrote in that column, Theresa: "If you are going to choose between video poker and slots, play video poker. Even poor play on a video poker machine will have a better payback than most "reel" slot machines."

Here's why, Theresa, there is such a big difference. Slots are programmed by the manufacturer to pay back a certain percentage, but video poker is based on, yes, Theresa, you are partially right, a random deal from a 52-card deck, but it's still based on true mathematical probability that you can determine in advance of playing.

In your state, casinos do not make slot machine payback percentages public, but by standing front and center in front of a video poker looking at its paytable, you can easily distinguish a good video poker machine from a bad one, and can calculate precisely the true payback for each.

All you need to do is learn what paytables to look for, learn proper playing strategy -- basically which cards to hold or discard -- and you can play against the house almost dead even. Compare that to playing a slot machine, which can be gobbling up to 20 cents of every dollar inserted, and hopefully you can now appreciate the distinct difference.

Dear Mark: I saw something this past weekend I've never seen happen before in a casino; a natural royal flush at a Caribbean Stud table. What are the odds of a royal flush in Caribbean Stud? Another thing I noticed besides the royal is how many times the dealer didn't qualify and I wasn't able to get paid on my call bets. What percentage of the time does the dealer NOT qualify in Caribbean Stud? Jake S.

Caribbean Stud Poker is in essence a game of five-card stud poker, without the luxury of a draw, so seeing that natural royal flush over the weekend is a rare event indeed.

How rare you ask? Well, there are 2,598,560 possible five-card combinations in a standard 52-card deck. With four ways to make a royal flush, the true odds of hitting a natural royal are 649,640 to one.

As to your second question, the dealer will NOT qualify 43.68 percent of the time, which I'm sure leads to fits on your part when you have a good hand and the dealer doesn't qualify!

That said, Jake, don't interpret the dealer who doesn't qualify 43.68 percent of the time as some golden opportunity to always make call bets, so at least your ante will get paid, especially when you have a weak hand.

The hole in this strategy is that when the dealers do qualify, and they will almost 56 percent of the time, you will not only lose the ante bet, but also the call bet, which is twice the amount of the ante wager.

If you mistakenly bluff with a weak hand, you will lose 25% more of your ante over the long haul than if you had folded your shaky ones.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Poker is seductive to compulsive gamblers because they think their skill has not only leveled the playing field, but given them an advantage. --Andy Belin

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Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Vp Slots Caribbean Stud Poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 12, 2008

Better half has the week off

Dear Mark: Our local newspaper has been carrying your column for years and I must say, the education you dole out every week is a welcome relief to losing money every time I go in the casino. Count me in the “make only bets that have less than a 2% casino advantage” club that you always espouse. Anyway, my husband and I have argued this VP hand for years. I'm dealt a flush, but four of the cards could be used for a royal. For example, you are dealt a six of spades, along with a 10, J, Q and Ace also of spades. I believe you should discard the six and go for the royal. My husband believes you should keep a sure thing. We bet dishes for a week on your answer. Donna D.

Before hubby lays his eyes on this column, up the bet to both cook and clean, then slide this under a magnet on the refrigerator door.

With Jacks-or-better video poker, basic strategy dictates that you discard the six of spades from your dealt flush in order to hold a 4-card royal flush.

Your husband may think the sure thing is the happier hope -- and it certainly seems that way, given that you have only a 1 in 47 chance for hitting the royal flush -- but mathematically you're better off taking a shot at the royal. Here's why.

Any time you play video poker, you must either hold or discard certain cards to optimize the "expected value" (win potential) of your hand.

And what is "expected value?" It is the average value of all the wins attainable (after the discards are replaced), assuming that the optimum cards are retained and each unique possible draw occurs. In your example, the expected Value of a 4-Card Royal is 19 and of a naturally dealt flush is just a 5.

Any time, Donna, that the math says you're better off playing a certain hand a certain way, believe it. You'll win more money in the long run making that play.

Dear Mark: In slots, I was told that payback and hit frequency are one in the same. Is that true? Jack R.

Vastly different by definition, Jack. Payback is the amount of money the machine pays back to its players over the long haul. Hit frequency is the percentage of spins that return something to the player. It doesn't matter, Jack, whether the hit is 3 coins or 3,000, a hit is a hit.

Dear Mark: On a Jacks or better video poker slot machine, is it better to hold, let's say, a pair of 8s and hope for a third eight, or hold a face card and hope for a pair? Kathy S.

Even though a lone face card has some value and the potential of winning money, basic strategy suggests that you hold the pair of 8s. The frequency of hitting two pair, three of a kind, full houses or four of a kind when you hold the low pair more than makes up for chasing that elusive royal, or even a high pair.

Dear Mark: Every time I double down with 11 against a face card it seems the dealer has a 20. I've been burned so many times that you are going to have to convince me why I should ever do it again. Steve P.

Hopefully, simple arithmetic will convince you, Steve. When you double with an 11 against a 10 you will win the hand six times for every five times you lose.

Gambling Wisdom of the week: You can gamble for match sticks, you can gamble for gold. The stakes may be heavy or small, but if you haven't gambled for love and lost, you haven't gambled at all. --Frankie Laine. Moonlight Gambler (song)
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Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Poker 21

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 5, 2008

One toss from the poorhouse

Dear Mark: The casino I play in offers 100X odds, and I figure that by taking them I am offering myself the best opportunity to win. So what are your thoughts on a sole $2 pass line wager backed up with 100X odds? I feel I have a better chance of coming out ahead than by betting $2 and double odds and trying to grind it out. Tim H.

I am going to apply, Tim, the Woody Hayes axiom of football to your gambling question: There are three things that can happen when you throw the ball, and two are negative; an incompletion or an interception. The same holds true when taking 100X odds on a solitary wager. You could lose, and simultaneously, get wiped out, all in one throw of the dice.

Taking odds, Tim, can be an expensive proposition, especially when dealing in multiples of 100X odds.

True, with the house edge on this bet a puny 0.09%, you are getting one of the best bets the casino has to offer, but, as minuscule as 0.09% is, you are exposing your entire bankroll ($202) to embrace this wager.

It takes just one seven wielding its ugly face and you'll be begging for badly needed free drinks in the keno lounge. Oops, many casinos don't even have keno lounges anymore where you can score complimentary cocktails; instead you'll be waiting down at the bus lobby waiting for them to call your departure.

I'll be the first to agree that the suggestion in your question is a sound gambling strategy, and I especially like your pursuit of a $2 table. But let us all not forget one important thing: All craps bets come at a cost. Craps is a negative expectation game, meaning that, no matter how you bet, even a $2 wager with 100X odds, the house has an edge on your action.

A crap game that offers 100X odds is for players who typically wager between $25-$50 per hand, not a $2 player. It takes more than nerve to put your entire $202 bankroll on the line and wait for a 4 to roll. Capiche? Your reply, Tim, should be, Capisco!

Dear Mark: When playing Deuces Wild, I occasionally do hit four deuces, but have yet to ever hit a royal flush. Are the odds similar in hitting them? Jenny R.

Using proper basic strategy, you should hit four deuces once in approximately 5,000 hands. Certainly, that makes four deuces fairly rare, but still eight times more frequent than a royal flush, which occurs once every 40,000 hands.

Dear Mark: First, my apologies for this not really being a gambling question. Last week I really appreciated your analogy of comparing bet quality to that of collecting of baseball cards. You said, "Bet quality reminds me of rating the value of baseball cards. Poor, being a Yankee Red Ruffing retrieved 40 years ago from spokes of your Schwinn Sting-ray, or, a mint Mantle, still in the wrapper, gum included."

What I can't for the life of me figure out is that with the thousands and thousands of baseball players that have played the game, you came up with the name Red Ruffing. You are either an astute collector of baseball cards, or you are related to me, as Charles "Red" Ruffing is a great Uncle of mine. Which is it? John S.

Sorry, John, it's neither. Outside of bad beat stories in poker, I'm really not a collector of anything, unless a sizable collection of Tupperware counts for something.

My familiarity with the name Red Ruffing came from when my son, Nick, was in the play Brighton Beach Memoirs. In the opening scene his character, Eugene Morris Jerome, is tossing a ball against the wall pretending to be, none other than your great uncle, Red Ruffing.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Deception is what you do to others. Delusion is what you do to yourself. --John Vorhaus, Killer Poker

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Tags: Craps Pilarski Deuces Wild

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 29, 2008

Many card counters think they are better players than they actually are

Dear Mark: As a hobby, and only at home, I like to count down a deck of cards. As I said, I only do this at home and have never tried it on a live blackjack game. Before I do, I was curious as to if most blackjack players who learn to count cards actually end up being successful at beating the house, or am I, and they, wasting our time? I have to believe that the casino is not too keen on us beating them. Kevin L.

Experienced card counters, theoretically, have an advantage of between .5 and 1.5 percent against the casino, which is accomplished by tracking the changing imbalance of big to little cards in a diminishing deck. When the cards remaining favor the player, you bet more money. When they favor the dealer, you bet less. Big cards (10s, aces) favor the player; small cards (2-6) favor the dealer.

I opened with "Experienced card counters" because most players are just too darn lazy to learn to count cards well in actual casino conditions. And even if they did learn to make a half-way decent count-down, they often give themselves away by ranging their bets too much or doing something else to tip off the dealers and pit bosses that they are counting.

What the casino can, and will, do to combat would-be counters, is put more decks on the game, burying more cards on the shuffle, stopping mid-entry shoe betting, having the dealer shuffle half way through the deck, and when all else fails, they can, in certain gaming jurisdictions, legally bar the counters from playing and back them off the game. Put another way; give them the heave ho. Hey, Kevin, you're right. The casino is not too keen on blackjack players who know how to beat the house.

Oh, and where it is permissible to count, Atlantic City for instance, they impose tougher blackjack rules, multi-deck games, and they limit deck penetration to keep the skilled counter at bay. Now, add to the mix that most budding card counters make more than their fair share of basic strategy mistakes, and yes, miscount, which then puts the edge firmly back in the casino's favor.

Sure, Kevin, I've met counters that have brought the casino to its knees, but to the many who think they are the sharpest knife in the drawer, Mike Goodman in his book, Guide to Casino Gambling, Your Best Bet, put it neatly when he said, "Many so-called experienced 21 players don't know their ace from a hole in the ground."

Dear Mark: What should you do with an Ace/7 against a deuce; double down or stand? Kevin T.

I recommend staying pat with your Ace/7, and here's why. Usually soft doubling against a small card is a good move, but it can be lethal against a deuce. Staying pat, you have a 56% chance of winning, but if you double down and catch a bad card, you better plan on the dealer only breaking 35% of the time.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: When male gamblers come with their buddies, they behave differently than when they come with their girlfriends. And when they come with their girlfriends, they behave differently then when they come with their wives. --Deke Castleman, Whale Hunt in the Desert

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Tags: Card Counting Blackjack 21

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 22, 2008

Legal, though not encouraged in the casino: Common Sense

Dear Mark: Why is the betting the seven considered a "sucker bet" in Craps? Jason F.

Bet quality, Jason, reminds me of rating the value of baseball cards. Poor, being a Yankee Red Ruffing retrieved 40 years ago from spokes of your Schwinn Sting-ray, or, a mint Mantle, still in the wrapper, gum included.

In the casino, bet quality is rated in terms of the house edge. This is the long haul average percentage the casino theoretically earns on every dollar wagered. The greater the edge, the more of your hard-earned money that you put into action the casino gets to keep, and the less you take home.

Although proposition bets like the seven have seemingly lofty payoffs, the house edge is way too high for you to waste your hard-earned money on them. The seven, in particular, is called a sucker bet because it is the worst wager on a crap game, or any table game for that matter. This one-roll proposition bet has a house edge of 16.7%. Compare that, Jason, to a pass line wager with a casino advantage of 1.41%, and you can see which is the more valuable baseball card.

Don't be an easy target (okay, sucker) and trade your pristine 1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle for a pitcher with a win percentage of .548, even if Ruffing did have an exceptional World Series record of 7-2.

Dear Mark: Does electronic blackjack have the same odds as the table blackjack? It seems to me that electronic blackjack could be programmed to the casino's advantage more than the table blackjack. Ming W.

It is a Nevada law (and I'm sure most states follow suit) that video representations of cards follow the same odds as those in a real game with a human dealer, and that they be completely random.

What you need to concern yourself with is legally "altered" rules. For instance, in video blackjack, it's tough to find a machine that pays you the true value of a blackjack (3 for 2). Most video blackjack machines pay only even money on natural 21's. The loss of that bonus is going to cost you an additional 2.3 percent.

So, Ming, be assured that even though the cards are dealt randomly, you are giving away a considerable amount percentage-wise on a blackjack machine, so naturally, the odds there wouldn't necessarily be the same as they'd be in table blackjack.

Dear Mark: My aunt Harriet "Kitty" Marshall started dealing 21 around 1948 and she worked in Reno, Lake Tahoe & Carson City. She finally had to quit two or three months ago due to vision problems with her commuting from Silver Springs. She is currently 86. Ray M.

Last week I mentioned that John Stanislaus Matuszak, who, at 86, was possibly the oldest person known to have dealt cards in a casino. I'm adding Kitty to that elite and honored club for dealing well into her ninth decade.

...and to think that I've got 30-plus more years in this business to catch this pair. That's either a sobering thought, or employment well into my golden years. I'll get back with you later on which.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: When people enter a casino, a whole new transformation takes place. People who wouldn't bet you the Pope was Catholic even get caught in the urge to gamble. -- John Patrick, So You Want To Be a Gambler

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Tags: Deal Me In Craps Blackjack

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 15, 2008

The games they play to change your winning ways

Dear Mark: I play roulette when I feel lucky, which is hardly ever, however I noticed that at one local casino where I play that if you watch real close, they change balls every time they spin the wheel. I also noticed they are different sized balls. Is this common practice, and do all the casinos do this? I have in the past seen them change the balls, but usually when they have a dealer change. What gives? Bob M.

Any time the house is taking a beating, superstitious pit bosses do try various things to "change" your winning ways. Reversing the rotation of the wheel and/or swapping different weighted balls are a couple of things they erroneously believe will more efficiently separate you from your hard-earned money. Nah!

When I dealt roulette, before each spin, I was trained to either speed up or slow down both the wheel and ball delivery to avoid wheel clocking, and yes, occasionally I switched balls, particularly if I flicked the ball too fast and it came off the game, but rarely would a spooked pit bull ask me to exchange balls, even when we were getting clobbered.

Most rational pit bosses know that no amount of ball changing on a random non-biased wheel has anything to do with the outcome of the next spin. Each spin is an independent event, and over the long run, you can plan on your losses being 5.26%.

Apparently, Bob, where you play, superstition trumps mathematics.

Dear Mark: Is it possible for casino IT gurus to change odds remotely from the back room to cheat unsuspecting players? Inquiring minds want to know! Diane U.

Is it possible that some geek in the bowels of a casino basement in Singapore can tinker with your payouts? Sure. With networked machines, satellite transmission, and computer programming, absolutely anything is possible. But is it happening? Capital D -- definitely not, and here's why.

Casinos reap their profits by paying winning slot machine players less than the true odds on their bets. Let me say that again: EVERY slot machine offered to the player is already mathematically fixed in the casino's favor. Since every coin inserted into their one-armed bandits is operating on this principle, why, Diane, should they ever bother to fleece you further?

What's more, most casinos are publicly traded companies on the NYSE, and believe me, Diane, they are not in the least bit interested in exposing their gaming licenses to loss through any inkling of cheating.

There is no more regulated business in America than gaming, with plenty of rules and regulations that would close a casino down for defrauding, or appearing to defraud, the public.

Dear Mark: The casino where I play allows players to draw to split aces. How big of an edge am I getting with this rule change? John M.

Unlike when you split any other pair, when you split aces, normally you are only allowed to draw one card to each ace. Some casinos, like the one where you play, allow you to draw additional cards to each split ace. This player-favorable rule decreases the house's edge by 0.14%.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The good news is that in every deck of fifty-two cards there are 2,598,960 possible poker hands. The bad news is that you are going to be dealt only one of them. --Anthony Holden

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Tags: Roulette Blackjack Slot

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 8, 2008

You can pitch cardboard at any age

Dear Mark: I am a recently laid off autoworker in Detroit who is being forced to look for a new career. I am considering dealing blackjack. My question is, is there any age limit to dealing cards? I am 57, and I was wondering if that is too old, and if at that age I would lack certain skills needed to deal the game? Dan O.

Once, when I was having one of those whining "why am I here" moments while dealing blackjack, a pit boss clued me in that "a chimpanzee could do your job, so, shut up and deal." Not one to leave it alone, I sassed back, "Yeah, but I doubt a chimp could make the correct payoffs on blackjacks, nor wait for his hourly bathroom break." That bit of wit cost me two weeks of dealing 50-cent blackjack, where a whole different type of primate played, but he was right. Blackjack is a pretty darn easy game to deal, and little or no skill is required that would be affected by age.

I've known plenty of dealers in their 70's, and I am acquainted with possibly the oldest person ever to deal cards in a casino, that being John Stanislaus Matuszak, who was dealing at the Blue Chip Casino in Michigan City, IN, when he was 86 years old.

So, Dan, as an unrestricted free agent from the auto companies, with their unfulfilled promise of 30-and-Out, at 57 you still have time left to have a lengthy career in gaming, that is, as long as you can hold it for 60 minutes between trips to the head.

Dear Mark: Where did the name blackjack come from? Dave E.

The game of 21's common nickname, blackjack, comes from illegal casinos in the early 1900s who paid a bonus if a two-card 21 was made up of an ace and jack of spades, or in some cases, if the ace of spades was accompanied by a jack of clubs. The jack being black was the trigger to the bonus -- hence the origin of the word blackjack.

Dear Mark: Assuming no one else has brought this to your attention, I think you need to check your math with respect to the total hours you spent in a casino working. If you spent 50 weeks a year for 20 years that would be 40,000 hours (41,600 with no vacation). 8,320 hours would be only one day a week for 20 years. Glenn

What math wizard Glenn was really saying in his question was, "Pay no attention to that man (me) behind that curtain."
And he's right. My back from emptying buckets of coins from slot machines at 3 AM, or the carpal tunnel ailment every dealer claims to get (I never did, but I use it as an excuse now and then to get out of household chores) from pitching cards one hand too long should have told me that my figure was light by over 30 thousand hours.

Then again, I was the "early out" king, jumping on the EO list any chance I could get, so those missing 33,280 hours may still be too high.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: It would seem that the odds of smacking Megabucks twice are much longer than the odds of Earth being sucked into a stellar black hole. --Basil Nestor, Casino Player

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Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Blackjack

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 1, 2008

No filet mignon this time

Dear Mark: What is the best way to play $25 on the crap game. I say place it on the Pass line, while my friend believes you should Place it on either the 6 or 8? Your decision gets one of us a steak dinner. Jeff F.

You are in the know, Jeff, sort of, but only for Whopper at Burger King and not a steak dinner, and here's why.

Between the two wagers mentioned, your Pass Line bet has a 1.414% house edge whereas Placing the 6 or 8 has a casino advantage of 1.52%. But you guys forget the Don't Pass, which has an even lower house edge of 1.36%.

Better yet, the bet with the lowest house edge would be a Pass/Come or Don't Pass/Don't Come with odds placed behind them. It amazes me how few players think about making an odds bet along with their Pass Line bet. Like you, most players just want to chuck a $25 chip down on the Pass Line, but what you really should do, Jeff, is get the most money you can in odds and the least amount of money on the line.

For instance, instead of taking that $25 chip and plunking it down on the Pass Line, you are better off with $5 on the Pass Line and $20 in odds. By taking odds, you will lose just seven cents each time you make the bet this way over the long haul, versus a 35-cent loss if you make just a Pass Line with the full $25 amount.

You can enhance the wager even more if you happen to be on a $2 game that offers 10X odds. By splitting up the $25 wager into a $2 Pass Line bet with $20 in odds, the cost of your wager is only three cents.

An Odds bet costs you nothing, Jeff, because the casino's edge on it is zilch, so use it. Now go enjoy that Whopper, heavy all, light mayo.

Dear Mark: Is the Field bet in craps ever worth playing? Seems in the past you were not a big fan of it. Bill M.

A Field bet is a wager that one of these numbers, the 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12, will appear on the next roll of the dice. Typically this bet pays 2:1 if either the 2 or 12 rolls, and 1:1 (even money) if 3, 4, 9, 10 or 11 rolls.

You're right, Bill, my past comments were always to disregard all proposition bets that the dealer is barking out. Craps offers two kinds of one-roll proposition bets---hopeless and wretched. Although proposition bets have seemingly lofty payoffs, the house edge is way too high, as high as 16%, to waste your hard-earned money on them. The Field bet is one of those proposition bets, and it normally carries a casino advantage of 5.56%. The only difference between the Field and other proposition bets is that the Field bet is placed directly by the player and not handled by a dealer or a stickman. Because of this, I've seen some confusion as to its quality in the minds of many players, but it's still a wager you should avoid.

The exception to my "don't play" rule is when the 2 or 12 are returning three to one, instead of the usual two to one. Here the house edge drops to 2.78%. Yes, Bill, it is over my "never make a bet that has more than a 2% house edge," rule, but if you've got to play one proposition bet, this one is the best of the worst bets on the game.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: If it wasn't for luck, I would win every hand. --Phil Hellmuth

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Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Craps

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski


July 25, 2008


More and less than you think

Dear Mark: I was looking at your website and figured you were a good person to ask. I have noticed that when people are wining a lot, casinos switch dealers on them. Why do they do it, and why in the heck do pit bosses walk around with clipboards marking stuff? Rossco C.

Telling you that dozens of dealers go on a break every 20 minutes for an hour's work to commiserate over rude and obnoxious players while wolfing down the cafeteria chow probably won't satisfy you, but it is one answer.

The answer you are probably looking for is that the dealer change is often erroneously credited by superstitious pit bosses (and players alike) with ending a player-favorable streak of cards, but it's actually the players' seeing more hands per hour that modifies their luck.

Pit bosses like to push in a dealer whose pitch and pay-and-take is Speedy-Gonzales-fast, a seasoned dealer who can handle high-limit action, and deal more hands per hour. Their reasoning is that the more blackjack hands that expose you to the house's built-in odds edge, the faster Speedy G. will obliterate your bankroll. I do want to mention here, though, that switching for this reason is done far less often than you think.

What's on the clipboard? Nice you should ask: Notes monitoring chips flowing in and out on the games in the pit, dropped $100 bills, fill slips, notes of patron play, even comments that you would freely give while gabbing with a pit boss. If you happen to mention that you've got a dog named Chip, the pooch could well appear in a database upstairs. Give up your wedding anniversary date, and you might even see two coupons for a trip to Hoss's All-you-can-eat buffet in the mail two weeks ahead of time. Uncanny skill I had when I played pit bull; making you talk and talk and talk, and once I sucked Chip's name out of you, I could get anything else.

At shift's end, the bulls take their final strolls with clipboard in hand, count down the trays and get relatively accurate tallies as to that shift's wins or losses. Yes, Rossco, casinos do lose in an eight-hour shift, and more often than you think.

Oh, and as the pit boss hands off the clipboard to the incoming shift's pit boss, he or she will share verbal notes as well, like, "Watch Rossco on T-7. He's in only $200 and beating the crap out of us."

Dear Mark: I usually take 200 times my bet for video poker and still usually go home broke. Does this seem possible to you? David K.

Any time you play on a negative expectation game, there is no reason why you can't go home busted.

Let's crunch the numbers, David, and just see how, when you play a game that pays back less than 100%, which is pretty much every video poker machine, it can and will eventually eat your entire bankroll.

Let's say you play a quarter machine at $1.25 per hand, nibbling into your $250 bankroll (200 times your initial wager gives you a $250 bankroll). If you were to play that through your bankroll 10 times, the total action from that bankroll would be $2,500.

Let's also say that the payback of that particular video poker machine during your gambling timeline was only 90%, which is well within the expected range for playing 2,000 or so hands. Your total win would be $2,250, which is $250 short of your action played, which leaves you, unluckily, going home broke.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: If you play enough poker, your life is a cabaret of spectacularly bizarre events. --Steve Badger

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

July 18, 2008

Bills only, thank you!

Dear Mark: I liked your column last week where you told Ruth to slow down her play by inserting coins instead of using credits. Unfortunately, where I play, they only use bill acceptors. Still, it's good advice, just not here. Denny B.

A friend of mine has a yellow ski boot where he hoards all his change thru the year, separates it in different denominations for slot play, and then hits the casino for fun and frolic. Like you, where he plays, the casino wants him to keep his loose change at home. (Side note: The last I heard Burger King still takes coins for their Value Menu, although have you noticed -- they now ask if you want to pay for that Whopper Junior with a credit card?)

My apprehension with bill acceptors, or using credit slips, is that you play slots oh, so much faster. Twice, maybe even three times as fast.

Back in the day when you could plop coins in for each spin, you would average 250 twirls an hour. Today with credit play it's double that, and players of dubious talent with a hungry twitch can see 1,000 spins.

What that means to player on a $1 slot machine that holds onto, let's say, 92% of what you put into it, at $3 a yank, instead of losing $60 an hour, it's now $120 and $240 if you work at it.

Like you, Denny, it's not only the $3.49 prime rib buffets I long for.

Dear Mark: When you nearly line up three jackpot symbols, does that mean the machine is due to hit in the near future? Jenny S.

Ah, Jenny, were it only true!

Those "almost jackpots," Jenny, we call, "near misses," and you see them for two reasons: The fun factor, and to encourage you to keep playing.

Although it seems you are on the doorstep of hitting the big one, the odds don't change on your next spin. Your chances, albeit minuscule, of hitting a jackpot are the same on each and every spin whether you've had a near miss or not. The near miss has no predictive talent.

Dear Mark: Do players win less when they use their player's club card? Sue N.

Just because you are accumulating comps on your club card, the casino is not going to make you pay for it with a lower return on their machines. Besides, the random number generator within doesn't even know you are using a slot club card.

Let me also add, Sue, that differential paybacks are illegal. Oh, and one more thing. Think of all the time and energy the casino went through to enroll you in the slot club and put you in the database so that through its incentives you'll keep coming back.

They want you as a loyal, regular customer, and not one it can screw over. Appeasing you with a feeding frenzy at the buffet while stiffing you on returns on their slots would make for bad business.

Dear Mark: I have a coupon from our local casino that pays 3 to 1 for a natural blackjack. What's that worth to the player percentage-wise? Nick G.

Get your scissors or grab your saber, Nick, clip that coupon and use it. A 3 to 1 payout on a natural in blackjack gives the player a 6.52% advantage over the house.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: No victor believes in chance. Friedrich Nietzsche

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

July 11, 2008

A sour grape swelling in memory

Dear Mark: How come every time I get up from a machine, someone sits down and immediately hits a big jackpot? Bill F.

My twenty years spent working on the front line, put me within a casino for at least 8,320 hours (20 yrs X 52 weeks X 8 hours a day), I don't need to get to my toes to count how many times I've seen a person desert a machine, someone new jump into the still warm seat, and on the first spin, snag the big one and sail into a charmed life of champagne wishes and caviar dreams.

Seriously, Bill, how many machines have you left, (and that's probably hundreds if not thousands over your career-pursuit of the big one), and how many times has the next player after you "really" hit it big on the first three coins? Sure, it happens, and yes, I've seen it, but far, far less often than you see in your mind's eye.

Besides, Bill, a slot machine uses a Random Number Generator to determine which symbols will land on the payline, and the RNG in the slot machine is continually running whether anyone is playing or not. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the player following you would have stopped the RNG at exactly the same nanosecond needed to produce the mega-jackpot combination on the screen, as you would have. There is little, if any chance that both of your results would have been the same.

Dear Mark: Is there any trick to winning at slot tournaments? Sherry W.

In most slot tournaments, you play strictly for points, and the player with the most points at the end of the tournament wins. To increase the frequency of winning combinations, most states allow for a separate tournament chip to be used in the machine. That is why you see so many more paying combinations when playing in tournaments than you see in normal play.

So, Sherry, the trick here is to get your little fingers moving as fast as they can because the more those reels are spinning, the more you give yourself a chance to accumulate points.

You need to set the reels in motion as often as possible to maximize your chances to amass points. The faster you get at tapping the max coins button, as soon as the reels stop spinning, the better your chances are of winning a slot tournament.

Dear Mark: Is there minimum payout percentage on slot machines that must be paid out? Dave N.

The legal minimum, Dave, is set by statute in each state. Your letter comes from New Jersey, where it's 83%. Where I worked, Nevada, it was slightly less. Yet that percentage return doesn't necessarily mean you will see slot machines actually set that low.

Players don't like having their money gobbled up by machines that are as tight as legally allowed. For that reason, along with competition, you'll find in general that casinos tend to have higher paybacks on their slots than the legal minimum, and seldom will you find the real payout percentage falling much below 90%.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Bookie: A pickpocket who lets you use your own hands. --Henry Morgan

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

July 4, 2008

Is stretching your bankroll by betting one coin at a time a good idea?

Dear Mark: I am a senior citizen on a very limited budget, but I do enjoy my monthly bus trips to the casino. In the past, you have written that you should always play the maximum coin amount when playing slots, but if I do, especially on a quarter machine, I'm sitting, waiting and coinless long before the bus leaves. I'm just there to have some fun, so does always mean always? Betty G.

There is a reason, Betty, why I recommend playing the maximum coin amount. For most multiple-pay and multiple-play slot machines, when you play the maximum coin level, the machine yields its best percentage payback.

It's easy to spot these proportional differences among payoffs by looking at the machine's paytable. For example: One coin could pay 500 coins, two coins 1,000, and three coins, KA-BOOM, 4,000.

So, Betty, if you can afford to play the maximum coins allowed, I recommend you do so. And if quarters are too rich for your blood, switch to nickels.

But, Betty, because you want to extend your playing time, plus you seem to be sticking within your budget, and yes, we do have to include the fun factor here, I have decided to make you a candidate for an exemption.

Although returns vary from one gaming jurisdiction to another, let's look at a typical Red White and Blue slot machine that pays back, say, 92 percent when you play one coin at a time, and 95 percent if you play the maximum three coins. You are better off playing three coins at a time if you play a specific amount of action. For instance, if you run $2,000 through a machine that has a 95% payback, your expected loss would be $100 whereas your expected loss would be $160 while playing one coin at a time at 92% payback.

Betty, you may have a shorter gambling timeline before catching the Greyhound back to Hackensack. So let's look at playing one coin versus three in a slightly different manner, that of playing for an hour, which is about 800 spins. At one coin per spin, you'd wager $200 (800 X .25) and have an expected loss of $16 with a 92% return. But playing three coins per spin with a 95% return, you'll wager $600 (800 X .75) and expect to lose almost double, $30. Even though playing the maximum coin amount with a higher payback, you will lose more because you're wagering more.

Naturally, Betty, -- No I'll put it this way: If you take the exemption I offered, play one coin, line up three treasure chests and get a teeny jackpot, please don't write me a nasty "you said" letter. It's all in a day's work.

Dear Mark: My recent trip to Las Vegas was a bit trying, not in that I lost a lot of money, but that of trying to find a quarter video poker machine. They had them, but finding them was tough. Can't they put them all in one area and mark them appropriately? Cathy R.

Have you ever noticed, Cathy, those lights that are on top of a slot machine? In gamblese, they are called a "candle," and have two colors associated with each machine. The top color is usually white, and its purpose is to light up when you press the button for slot attendant assistance, or it will blink when you hit a jackpot that must be paid by hand.

The bottom part of the light is color-coded so you can easily track those tasty quarter machines wherever they may be hiding. In the future, look for yellow for quarter, red for nickel, and blue for dollar machines.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: It might be instructive to remember that Nick the Greek died penniless and was buried in a pauper's grave in North Las Vegas.--Marvin Karlins Ph.D.

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

June 27, 2008

Quiz: What do driving and video poker have in common?

Dear Mark: Maybe it's me, but a roll of quarters doesn't seem to last very long anymore when playing video poker. Is there a way I can slow down my money going to them? Ruth T.

A true conundrum! Could be "them," that is, if "them" tightened the paytables, or it could be you, because of your skill level or the speed of your play, or all of the above.

Remember, Ruth, a column or two back when I mentioned that the casino uses what's called a win formula. Although my example was for blackjack, the same holds true for video poker.

Take your average bet, the number of hours you are possibly going to play, how fast you are going to play video poker, and the casino's advantage over your play. With this little bit of information, you can easily figure out how fast your roll of quarters goes to, guess whom --- them.

So along comes Ruth, bopping on down, betting $1.25 a hand for two hours, playing 240 hands. Pair that with the five percent advantage the casino holds over the typical video poker player who's just winging it and doesn't use perfect basic strategy, and you should already be halfway through you're your donation to them of your second roll of quarters ($1.25 X 2 hrs. X 240 hands X .05 = $30).

Quick story. I didn't get my driver's license until I was almost 18 years old because I got tossed from the class for making a flippant remark to the drivers'-ed instructor, Mr. Miller, that "speed doesn't kill, impact does." Okay, I also replicated his little nasal beep before I said it, but he was right: speed does kill, Ruth, and especially in a casino environment. The faster you play, Ruth, the more decisions there are per hour. And since the casino has the edge over your play, the faster your rolls of quarters become theirs.

So what you need to do, Ruth, besides finding the best paytables possible and improving you play by learning perfect basic strategy, is to slow down your play. You can, if you are not on a coinless machine, play coins instead of credits, press the Bet One button instead of pressing the Bet Max button, and take a little extra time to study your video poker hand by checking your video poker strategy card more often.

Dear Mark: In blackjack, how do you play an Ace/seven against a nine? The dealer told me to hit it, but all the players (four of them) on the game said stay. I'll go with your advice, so do I stay or hit? Gary P.

Never expect herd behavior, a group of players acting together without knowledge of basic strategy, to dictate sound play. The dealer was right, Gary. You always hit a soft 18 against a nine.

No blackjack hands are misplayed more than the "soft" ones (those containing an Ace). What the mob didn't realize is that a soft 18 (Ace/7, or for that matter Ace/3/Ace/Ace/2) is a losing hand against the dealer's nine.

Here's the arithmetic: With a soft 18 against a 9, you'll win eight times out of 20 if you stand, but nine times out of 20 if you hit. And the winner is?

Fortunately, Gary, a soft 18 is an open-ended hand, so you always want to improve your chances by hitting one against a nine.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Numbers make the games work, the same way they make the universe function. --Basil Nestor

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

June 20, 2008

'I Told You So!' could cost you dearly

Dear Mark: I enjoy playing the carnival game Let It Ride. I know, bad odds but its fun. So I don't play the side bets, Bonus or 3-card bet because I feel these are sucker bets and the house has big enough odds against me without adding to it. But every time I would have won at one of these side bets the dealer never fails to point this out and chastises me for not betting it, and then the other players join in with the dealer and make me feel like a fool for not making the bet. I still don't make the side bets but I want to ask you, are they right and I should be betting the side bets and if so which one or both? Any help you can give me would be appreciated. Bill

The game you speak of, Bill, Let It Ride, (for those unfamiliar with it) is a variation of five-card stud poker where the player wagers on a poker hand consisting of three cards in the player's hand and two community cards in the dealer's hand. When the game is played using perfect basic strategy, the casino's advantage on Let-It-Ride is 3.51%, and even though the house edge is almost six times the edge in blackjack when using perfect basic strategy, you enjoy playing it, know in advance the toll it could take on your wallet, and there are in the casino worse games (and better ones) than Let it Ride that you could play.

But now, lets talk about this dealer who used the wisdom of hindsight to be critical of your play. He, or she for that matter, is dead wrong. It's easy to have a perfect understanding of a wager that could have won after it has happened, but in actuality, the Let-It-Ride side bets, where for $1 you are offered an additional payoff with certain paying hands, carry a double-digit casino edge making them nothing more than sucker bets.

Skip those side bets, Bill -- better yet, any interest in switching to blackjack?

Dear Mark: Can you please recommend a book and/or author that give the BEST strategies for playing video poker? I think it would help my odds considerably, if at least, I played "by the book." Mike S.

Because video poker often has a positive expectation, it is the one machine game that really offers the player the chance to get the best of the casinos. A caveat to that statement is that you must select the best machines and play the proper strategies on those machines.

I could easily recommend the most technically accurate video poker book on the bookshelves today, but it isn't going to be of much use to the average player if the poor guy or gal has to struggle to understand and apply its strategies. So, Mike, I'm going to limit my picks to three straightforward, and easy-to-grasp books: Victory at Video Poker by Frank Scoblette, or either Precision Play or Optimum Play by Dan Paymar.

My advice for those of you who are now just recreational players but who want to become serious video poker players, is to get any of these books and watch with pleasure which direction your hard-earned money then flows.

Dear Mark: I read your casino column every Thursday and thanks for all the advice on video poker. We are planning a trip to Las Vegas and I would like to know where to find '' a printed video cheat sheet.'' Robert B.

Using a printed video cheat sheet gives you not only the discipline to play video poker correctly, but it also gives you an understanding of the "Expected Value" of the hands you are dealt. Each hand dealt has what's called an "expected value," which is the average value of all the results attainable after the discards are replaced, assuming that the optimum cards are retained (per your cheat sheet) and that each possible draw occurs.

As for where to find a printed cheat sheet, you can either purchase the books recommended above, copy their strategy charts and use them in the casino, or check out the Gambler's Book Shop at 800-522-1777 (http://www.gamblersbook.com), which carries a decent selection of laminated cheat sheet cards for different video poker games.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: In poker, you should be rewarded for good decisions and penalized for bad ones. That's the essence of the game. --Mike Sexton, "Shuffle Up and Deal"

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