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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

June 13, 2008

Like stepping stones across the creek

Dear Mark: On weekends, the casino where I play raises the table minimum to $25 on the crap table. What's a player to do to get some crap action on the weekend when you're only a $5 player, wanting to make only smart wagers like a Pass line bet? Neil F.

There is a way, Neil, for us nickel players to fix things when the casino bumps up the table minimum on the weekends.

Here's what I'm asking you to do. Bet the Pass line and Don't pass at the same time. Huh? Yep, Ben, being a nickel Pass line player, I want you to place $30 in lieu of $5 on the Pass line, and then bet $25 on the Don't pass simultaneously. Your net bet becomes only $5.

Do the reverse if you are a Don't player. Bet six red chips on the Don't pass and five red chips on the Pass. So once more, though you're betting $55, all you are risking is a grand total of $5.

You didn't think it was going to be that easy, did you Neil? You still have one itsy bitsy problem, and that's the twelve wielding its ugly face, on average, once every 36 rolls, making you lose on the Pass line, and push on the Don't.

Consequently, you could bet a buck as insurance every roll of the dice and get 30 to 1 if and when it appears, or, take a chance, yes gamble, that it doesn't roll during your gambling timeline. Either way, Neil, at least you're in action when the table limits are higher than your budget allows.

Dear Mark: Is there a mathematical formula for blackjack that you can project your losses in a casino? Ben S.

For the blackjack player, there is an expected loss formula that the casino uses (actually they call it a win formula) that I'll teach you to use to figure your projected losses to the house.

Take your average bet, the number of hours you are possibly going to play, the speed of the game, and the casino's advantage over your play. This, in theory, gives your "expected" loss.

Say, for instance, you are betting $25 a hand for four hours (weekends, remember, higher table limits) averaging 100 hands per hour. Couple that with the three percent advantage the casino holds over your run-of-the-mill play, and you can predict, just as the casino does, your loss expectation of $300 ($25 X 4 hrs. X 100 hands X .03 = $300).

I did say predict, Ben, but not guarantee, simply because you won't automatically lose that exact amount. But the more you play, the closer your actual losses will get to your expected loss.

Dear Mark: I believed I found a sleeper full pay machine (9/6) Bonus machine where I play, but when I told a friend what I found he thought there was no way our local Indian casino would allow it on the casino floor. Could this machine have slipped through a crack without management not knowing it? Brad T.

I'd bet dollars to Krispy Kremes against it, Brad. Without your even telling me the exact paytable, here's what I'm betting on.

Your typical full-pay 9/6 Jacks paytable should look like this: 250 for a royal flush, 50 for a straight flush, 25 for four-of-a-kind, nine for a full house, six for a flush, four for a straight, three for three-of-a-kind, two for two pair, and one for jacks or better, with one coin inserted.

Next time, Brad, look closely at all the payouts for all the hands. Bonus machines, which give you a bonus for various quads, typically pay only 1-to-1 on two pair, which wouldn't --depending on the paytable--make it necessarily a bad machine, but it also wouldn't necessarily make it a full pay, 9/6 Jacks or better machine.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Luck is for the whimpering simp at the next table who plays to break even. --John Vorhaus, Killer Poker

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Craps Blackjack Video Poker Mark Pilarski

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

June 6, 2008

Hearing Versus Listening

Dear Mark: Several weeks ago I wrote to you to inquire about blackjack's Royal Match bet and got your definitive answer that I've summarized here in two words: bad bet. Like most people who ask for advice, I didn't act on your info figuring I'd just make the bet on the deal to limit the loss. HA!

Yesterday, I sat at a blackjack table at a local casino (Western Village for you as a former Reno-ite). In those four hours I never received the first two dealt cards in suite while the bet was out. Royal Match: I'm outta there.

It's OK to hold me up to public ridicule if you want to use this to reinforce your point to your readers. But please: Just don't use my name-I'm already suffering enough. Anonymous

Fortunate that you're rich enough. What I said was: "The Royal Match wager, a side bet in blackjack that is based on the first two cards dealt to the player is a bad deal, being over this columnist's mandated two percent tops casino advantage. By ignoring the Royal Match offering, you keep more of your hard-earned money in your wallet for a longer time."

What you read was only your favorite words; like: Blah, blah, blah ROYAL MATCH blah, blah, blah, blah, blah SIDE BET, blah, blah, DEAL, blah, blah, blah, blah, ADVANTAGE.

By the way, Willoughby, oops, I wasn't supposed to mention your name, but next time keep a little something extra for the Western Village's Steakhouse, as it's one of my Top 10 picks as a best-kept secret in the Reno/Tahoe/Sparks area.

Dear Mark: I am a novice Video Poker player so here's my question. Playing 5-card draw with jacks or better, I draw a pair of 5s, a king, a 7 and a 2. Do I just keep the pair of fives, or do I keep the fives and the king? Jerry S.

A good decision on a live poker game can be a bad one at Jacks-or-better video poker. For instance, a kicker, a high card with a pair, can be at times advantageous to hold at your kitchen table, but should always be discarded on a video poker machine. Holding a kicker, to any pair, Jerry, reduces your return by 5%.

I did write in a column years ago that there was one scenario where you did want to hold a kicker. There used to be a time when the machine didn't lock up as a winner when four cards had the same face value. For instance, you initially draw a 6-6-6-6-Jack. My advice back then was to hold all five cards so that you wouldn't accidentally discard one of your four-of-a-kinds. Today, most machines won't allow you the opportunity to do something so… dummy me.

Dear Mark: What are you thoughts on this roulette system? I wait for odd or even to come up three consecutive times and then bet the opposite on the fourth spin figuring it's due. Jenny T.

A roulette wheel has the same recall abilities as a teenager you forever yell at to turn off the lights when leaving a room. None whatsoever.

Past results, Jenny, have no effect on a future outcome. Regardless of what happened on recent spins, on the next spin there is a 47.37 percent chance the number will be odd, a 47.37 percent that it will be even, and 5.26 percent (the house edge) that it will be neither (green 0 or 00).

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: To be a professional gambler, to win year in and year out, you have to be part mathematician, part banker, part actor, part martial artist...You have to be willing to spend your life in casinos. Deke Castleman, Whale Hunt in the Desert

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You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Blackjack Video Poker Roulette

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

May 30, 2008

Skill, money, and reading the payback label - that's all it takes

Dear Mark: For the average player, is there any mathematical advantage to playing two hands of blackjack versus one? Jason F.

Playing two hands and what advantages or disadvantages it brings your way depends on your skill level.

A skilled player using perfect basic strategy gives up the same approximately one-half percent edge to the casino on both hands. A card counter might actually gain a small advantage over the house by playing an additional hand. But if you are the Average Joe, you will reap exactly the same results on both hands, minus approximately 5% to the house, creating no edge whatsoever.

An added drawback when playing more than one spot is that you will be dealt more hands per hour. Because the casino already has a commanding edge over the Average Joe's play, is reason enough, Jason, on why you wouldn't want to be playing two spots. You are just as likely to keep on losing, but at a faster clip playing two hands.
The key advantage for playing two hands occurs only for card counters. If the deck is positive, counters, knowing they have an edge on the next hand, typically play more than one spot. Because they are playing two spots instead of one, they have twice as much chance of getting the high value cards as the dealer has.

Dear Mark: As a video poker player, what should my beginning bankroll be? I typically play $1 machines. Norm N.

In the gaming business it's called "risk of ruin." The risk of ruin is the chance that standard deviation will wipe out your bankroll before you have a chance to win what your pre-determined win goals were. What you need in order to weather risk of ruin is a decent sized bankroll. If your bankroll is too small to handle the swings caused by standard deviation, you can get your clock cleaned.

Video poker players should have an adequate bankroll of at least 40 times their typical bet, if not more. With an adequate bankroll, you can last through a cold streak and still be in action when a hot streak comes along.

So, Norm, on a dollar machine, you should have a bankroll of at least $200 (five coins in per hand times 40).
Dear Mark: What are your thoughts on players who like to believe that one video poker machine that they regularly play is luckier than another? Every time my sister and I go to the casino she runs to one particular machine that she claims pays out more. June D.

It doesn't make one iota of difference whether she always plays her "favorite" video poker machine or bounces around. As long as the paytables are the same, she can expect the same long-term payback.

What I can't rule out, is that your sister accidentally happened on a video poker machine that has a much better paytable than the other machines surrounding it, so yes, June, it would pay out more.

I once had a favorite video poker machine at the Club Cal Neva in Reno that I would play after pitching cardboard for eight hours. It was a bar-top, so along with my after-shifter, I figured it was worthy of a couple of bucks before I headed up to the lake (Tahoe). I hit a royal and a dozen four-of-a-kinds over the year that I worked there, and I'm sure I cashed out more than I put in. But deep down I knew, or would like to think that I should have known, that the probabilities of royals or four-of-a-kinds appearing remain the same on all the machines, on every hand.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: All losers praise their own systems. VP Pappy, Midwest Casino Guide

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You can email Mark at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Blackjack Video Poker

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

May 23, 2008

If I Only Held...

Dear Mark: My husband is critical of my video poker play, so much so that I hate sitting next to him. He keeps saying, "well, if you held this instead of that, you would have gotten a better hand." I strictly play each hand using a printed cheat sheet based on the perfect strategy for that game, but he believes I should deviate my play. Help. Carol R.

Each hand dealt has what's called an "expected value," which is the average value of all the wins attainable after the discards are replaced, assuming that the optimum cards are retained (per your cheat sheet) and that each possible draw occurs.

You are playing correctly, Carol, in that you must hold the combination of cards with the highest expected value, because those are the cards that will win you the most money over the long haul, not your spouse's suggestions screeched in your ear.

Your husband seems to think that if you are holding, say, three Jacks, and you correctly discard a Queen and King, and then you draw and receive another Queen, in that case, had you held the Queen, possibly you could have gotten a full house.

The correct strategy is to hold only the Jacks, since you, me, and especially he, each and all of us hasn't a clue as to what cards will be drawn from the deck to replace what you just discarded.

As for the squabbling amongst spouses, my B- in Psychology 101 hardly qualifies me for further comment. (Some casinos do sell earplugs.)

Dear Mark: A friend of mine claimed he was dead broke walking out of a casino and played $1 on a crap game and within a minute had almost a $1,000. I think he's full of it. Is his claim possible? Dan D.

Absolutely, Dan, and it can be done with just two rolls of the dice.

I'm guessing here, but I figure he put a dollar on the two or twelve, hit for $30, and then he let the $30 ride for a $900 payday.

Long odds, yes, but I've seen a lot crazier things happen on a crap game than back-to-back snake eyes.

Dear Mark: I have always wondered how the newspaper where I live can give an accurate figure as to the payout percentages of slot machines. Am I to trust those figures? Kerry A.

There is no reason not to, Kerry.

Payback percentage numbers on slot machines come from your state's (Nevada) Gaming Commission. Those figures are the amount paid out by the areas casinos, divided by the money wagered, and then multiplied by 100.

To simplify, let's say area casinos paid out $10,000 in jackpots, but patrons wagered $11,000 to win that 10 grand. Divide $10,000 by $11,000, multiply by 100, and you get a figure of a 91% payout percentage on your local slots.

Dear Mark: I read somewhere that if you bet the Banker hand in Baccarat you win more hands than you lose. Why would the casino offer a wager where you have an advantage over the house? Paul D.

"Read somewhere" might have been here, Paul, but I also stated that even though the Banker hand does win 50.68 percent of hands, excluding ties, the house collects a five percent commission on all winning bets.

Nevertheless, even with a five percent commission, the Banker hand is one of the best bets in the casino, with a house edge of only 1.17%, thus, keep that wager in your arsenal.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: In a metaphorical sense, the host is the snake in the Garden of Eden. His job is to talk Adam into taking a bite from the forbidden fruit from the Tree of Good and Bad Bets. Whale Hunt in the Desert by Deke Castleman

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You can email Mark at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Baccarat Video Poker Craps

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

May 16, 2008

Friend Might Try Shuffle Master's Leg

Dear Mark: I was sitting at a casino bar in casual conversation with another player who said that he was a card counter. I asked him why play here since this casino uses only continuous shuffle machines. He replied that he liked to play on them because it drew less scrutiny versus a hand or shoe dealt game. Funny thing was that he was broke and couldn't even buy a round of drinks. Was he pulling my leg? Tom D.

So let me get this straight, Tom Here's a guy bellied up at the bar, tapped out and unable to by you a dollar draft, telling you he loves continuous shuffle machines because they draw less heat from pit bulls. Huh?

I remember reading a few years back that Shuffle Master, one of the manufacturers of continuous shufflers, offered $100,000 to any player who could show that a continuous shuffle machine could be beaten by either shuffle tracking or card counting techniques. What I haven't read is anyone ever collecting on that $100,000 challenge.

But thwarting card counters isn't the only reason casinos love continuous shuffle machines. What they like best about a constant shuffle machine is that dealers do not waste time manually shuffling the cards. From the casino's perspective, shuffling is time, and time is money -- their money.

The more hands you, the player, see per hour, the more you are exposed to the house edge, which allows the built-in casino advantage to eat away at the chips in front of you. It's for this reason, Tom, and not the ability to count down a deck or two that I'm no fan of continuous shuffle machines.

Dear Mark: If as you say, all spins are random, then how can a machine be set to return a certain percentage back to the player, especially machines that "supposedly" are advertised to return 98% back to the player? Tracy H.

Let's start with the premise that when a slot machine displays the outcome of any one particular spin, it hasn't been picking and choosing; it displays at a mechanically dictated moment, a randomly arrived-at member of a pre-defined pool of possible outcomes.

Now, Tracy, to guarantee a 98% return on a select machine, all the casino has to do is add up all the money the player could win on all of the equally likely outcomes, then divide that by the total number of all those possible outcomes, and out pops the payback percentage of that particular machine.

To radically simplify matters, imagine an undernourished, underprivileged machine with only 100 possible outcomes - although today's electronic gizmos actually have millions and millions - and the total amount of money you can win when you've hit them all is 98 dollars. Divide 98 by 100, and there's your 98% payback machine.

What happens over the long haul is that the odds of getting any particular outcome will get closer to 1 out of 100, and the amount of money the machine pays back will get nearer to 98% of the money wagered. But when you're dealing in real world slots, with millions and millions of possible outcomes, it doesn't necessarily mean that every time you sit in front of a slot machine and play through $100, you should expect to end up with 98 credits.

Dear Mark: Why shouldn't I insure my twenties against a dealer ace? It's darn near a guaranteed winner, so why not protect it? Zell R.

Who's holding at least two of the cards the dealer needs to make blackjack? YOU, Zell. When you insure a hand composed of two 10 cards you're giving the house a huge edge, up to a 14.3% edge on a single deck game, making this one of the worst bets you can make in the casino.

Granted when you do insure a pair of 10's, 30% of the time you'll save your wager, but 70% of the time you'll be throwing half that bet away. To me, that's a losing proposition every time.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: What's a whale? he asked finally. Martinez clinked his glass against the window. A whale is someone who can lose a million dollars at cards--and not give a damn. --Ben Mezrich, Bringing Down the House

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You can email Mark at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Blackjack Slots

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

May 9, 2008

So Just How Smart Is Lady Luck?

Dear Mark: When it comes right down to it, isn't lady Luck really the deciding factor when it comes to winning in a casino? Mark L.

Sorry, Mark, but it isn't Lady Luck nor Jack's Magic Bean that is the deciding factor when it comes to winning. It's knowledge of the game you are playing and a solid grasp of the odds and probabilities that will bring you success. The smarter you play, the luckier you'll be is the correct answer here.

As a bonus, I can also tell you with certainty what the deciding factor is when it comes to losing: continuous play.

Because the casino has a built-in house advantage on each and every game it offers, the more hands you are dealt per hour, the more dice throws you see, the more spins on a roulette table, the more pulls of a handle, the more the built-in casino advantage chomps away at your bankroll. From a player's perspective-your perspective, Mark- continuous play kills in a casino environment.

The elephant in the room for every player is the casino edge, and you can't beat it to its knees with a Wiffleball bat. But with a Louisville Slugger, and by this I mean smart play, you can occasionally get on base.

Dear Mark: On a video poker machine that offers numerous games, if I hit a jackpot on one game, for instance Jacks-or-better, and then switch to another game on that same machine like Deuces Wild, do the odds change in any way on Deuces Wild because I already hit a jackpot on Jacks-or-better? Jill L.

Hitting a jackpot on one game, such as in your example Jacks-or-better, has no effect on the chances of your hitting a jackpot on another game on that machine, nor does it have any effect on your chances of hitting another jackpot on the next hand on the same game. Each individual hand you play on the machine is, in effect, randomly dealt from a freshly shuffled deck of cards.

Dear Mark: As you so often state, the random number generator on a slot machine is always crunching numbers. If that is true, then doesn't it stop to give you your results for that particular spin? Dave N.

Technically, Dave, the random number generator (RNG) never stops crunching numbers. You are correct in that at some point the software within needs to know the value of the RGN to produce the outcome you see on the screen, but what the program is doing is "polling the RNG" to pinpoint its value at that given moment, and it's not necessarily coming to a complete halt.

Just what creates that given moment? Some action by you the player causes the program to poll the RNG. It could be when you yank the handle, deposit your first coin, or press either the Spin or the Bet Max buttons. Because pulling a handle and pressing Spin commences the same action, the program accounts for that, and any or all of these events have been used by to initiate polling the random number generator.

Gambling wisdom of the Week: There is no disgrace in being a loser. The disgrace is not knowing why. VP Pappy, Midwest Casino Guide

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You can email Mark at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Vp Video Poker Lady Luck

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

May 2, 2008

That sweet edge and how to find it

Dear Mark: Is there any point when the player actually has an edge in video poker over the house? Vic D.

There is, Vic, but you'll need to master this combination. Play on a full pay machine, use an optimal playing strategy against that select machine, play progressives over a certain amount, and take full advantage of the goodies casinos give away.

Full pay machines are machines that pay out more for certain winning hands than do other comparable ones. For instance, a full pay jacks-or-better machine pays (per coin inserted) 9 coins for a full house and 6 coins for a flush. This payout is better than what you get from a machine that pays only 8 coins for a full house and 5 coins for a flush, and is far superior to some paytables that you'll find out there today that pay only 6 coins for a full house and 5 coins for a flush.

You'll also need to learn an optimal playing strategy for the type of machine that you are playing on. What I mean by optimal playing strategy is that you must learn which cards to hold and which ones to discard.

A marriage of both, Vic, playing on full pay machines and using an optimal playing strategy, will get you pretty close to you that edge that you're looking for in video poker.

Then pile on the advantage you take of casino comps. For example, a video poker player playing a 9/6 machine and using optimal strategy can expect a 99.5% return. By getting cash back for your play by using your Player's Club Card, it's very possible for the overall return to exceed 100%.

One other possibility is playing on a progressive machine where the jackpot exceeds a certain amount, which creates the opportunity -- that is, if you hit the jackpot -- to have a payback that is temporarily over 100%.

For example, on a one-dollar jacks-or-better 8/5 progressive machine, the break-even point would be a jackpot of $8,800. When the jackpot exceeds that amount, there's your edge. On a quarter jacks-or-better 8/5 progressive machine, look for a jackpot over $2,200. Again, factored in, is your chance of hitting the royal.

Dear Mark: Every time I get ahead on a crap game, I end up giving it all back. It's tough for me to walk away from a hot game. I get all caught up in the frenzy of the game, and then all of a sudden, it's all gone. Help! Kenny J.

Fortunes in craps are won when the dice are hot, lost when they go cold. You just keep forgetting to leave when the dice begin to chill.

Besides making the wisest bets on the layout, successful gamblers buck this memory loss by setting loss limits and win goals. You can only end your playing session a winner by walking when ahead. Sticking around when your karma is fishtailing, as you seem to do, is what gets me this e-mail.

From this moment forward, Kenny, pledge to set loss limits and win goals for yourself. For example, if you bought in for $200 and your win goal is doubling your buy-in, say adieu to the table when you hit it. Or, if you bought in for $200, and the gambling gods have allowed you to win $500, set aside the $200 buy-in, plus your $200 profit, and play with the remain $100. When it's gone, Kenny's gone.

Oh, one more thing. You are making the best bets (pass line, odds, placing the 6 and 8) on the layout, right? Oh... you didn't know there'd be a quiz?

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Piker (PY-kur) noun: A stingy person, a cautious gambler, or one who does things in a small way. --Wordsmith.com

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You can email Mark at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Vp Video Poker Craps

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 25, 2008

Come play the tightest loose machine in the West

Dear Mark: How do you determine what is considered loose and tight in slot machines? Is there a way of identifying them? Do they place them where we can't find them? Karen K.

All casinos, Karen, have "loose" and "tight" machines commingled on the casino floor. "Loose" machines are defined as those machines returning more of the player's money; the "tight" machines return less.

Likewise, "loose and "tight" are relative terms. One casino's "loose" machines could be the equivalent of another casino's "tight" machines---with all casinos having a mix of both.

If such-and-such casino describes their machines as "loose," it can mean one of two things, "more payouts" or "higher paybacks," and a slot machine's payback is not necessarily related to the number of payouts. Confused, I thought so.

As for finding those "loose" ones, well, that's no easy task. Slot managers place their machines strategically to maximize customer appeal and potential casino earnings. Unfortunately, Karen, I can't give you a tried-and-true reply as to where slot managers place their "loose" machines, besides, no two casinos do it exactly alike.

Nor is it possible to distinguish "loose" and "tight" machines by look or type. Unless specifically advertised, such as, "98% return on these machines," two similar machines sitting side-by-side could produce radically different results.

Yet, if happenstance and Irish luck place you in front of the loosest machine in the house, a "loose" machine over the long run is seldom a winning proposition.

Dear Mark: Is there any difference between a Pass Line bet and a Come bet? Can you explain how they work? Larry S.

Come bets can be confusing to newbies, but they are easy to play -- and profitable!

A Come bet acts like a Pass line bet, but they are made after a pass line point has been established, with the next point that the shooter rolls becoming your personal point.

When you make a Come bet one of the following three things will occur: a.) The next roll will be a 7 or 11, in which case you immediately win even money (1 for 1), or... b.) The next roll will be a 2, 3, or 12, in which case you immediately lose money, or... c.) The 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 will roll, becoming YOUR and the roller's point. If the shooter repeats that point on an ensuing roll, you win and are paid even money (1 for 1).

Look at a Come bet and Pass line bet as analogous, both as a couple of the best bets in the casino, with each having a house advantage of less than 1.5%.

Dear Mark: Suppose you are playing Three Card Poker and you make a bet on "Pairs Plus". You're dealt a pair of fives, but the dealer has a pair of aces. What happens to your bet? Does it lose? I lost a bet this weekend with my example above. Jerry C.

You shouldn't have. Dealer error! He or she, possibly seven hours into their shift, probably had you on ante/play spots and inadvertently scooped up your winner.

With a "pair plus" wager, it does not matter if the player's hand cannot beat the dealer's. This is a stand-alone wager with the payout based solely on the rank of the 3-card hand. If less than a pair, the player loses. With a pair or higher, you win, and the higher the rank, the greater the payout.

Your typical "pair plus" payout schedule, no matter what the dealer has, is as follows:

A pair: 1 to 1

A flush: 4 to 1

A Straight: 6 to 1

Three of a kind: 30 to 1

A Straight flush: 40 to 1

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: It makes sense to do the job well instead of depending on luck. --H. W. Lewis

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You can email Mark at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Slots Cards

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 18, 2008

Plenty of Wampum Needed for a Royal

Dear Mark: How much money is needed for a bankroll before I can expect to hit a royal flush? Andy A.

It could be more than your net worth, Andy.

Plenty of players, my Mom for example, went years, stretch that, decades, without ever hitting one. Of course, she's a worst-case scenario, made worse by the fact that she's no longer with us. Possibly by now she's caught her first, playing at St. Peter's Casino and Resort Hotel.

But on average, Andy, you can expect to hit a royal approximately once every 40,000 hands. By factoring in smaller wins (a pair through a straight flush) along the way, the average bankroll required is 4000 to 5000 units ($200 to $250 for nickels, $1000 to $1250 for quarters, and $4000 to $5000 for dollars) to keep you in the game between royal flushes.

Dear Mark: I love playing in craps tournaments, yet I have never been able to win one. Either I can't maintain the lead or catch the leader when behind. Any suggestions? Jason D.

Successful tournament players, once ahead in a craps tournament, mimic every bet of those competitors who are close behind so their rivals have no chance of catching up. If the closest challenger makes a $500 pass line bet, the leaders often do the same.

You can only catch the leader by betting the opposite of the leader's bets. Do your best to let them lead out, and if they are betting $500 on the Pass line, you bet $500 on the Don't. This way, you win if they lose.

The other way to catch up in short order is by making proposition bets that pay off in large amounts. The odds remain awful on these long shot wagers, and I would never recommend them for conventional craps play, but I've seen a few tournaments won with these come-from-behind long shot wagers, especially in the latter stages of a tournament.

Dear Mark: Do you have any idea who in gambling is credited with the term "beat the house." Sue F.

I believe that term, Sue, predates legalized gambling (1931) in the United States.

Its genesis, Sue, is a pre-revolutionary expression, where "house" referred to a merchant's place of business. Those who could talk a shopkeeper into giving them a better deal could literally boast that they had "beaten the house."

In today's usage, "house" refers to a gambling establishment, and giving it a whopping is referred to as "bringing down ..." or "beating the house."

Dear Mark: In last week's column you shared with us the virtues of doubling down. You didn't mention it, but what are your thoughts about doubling down for less? Gene R.

Let's review. Last week I wrote that the three main reasons why doubling down is so advantageous to you are 1) you know the dealer's up-card, 2) the casino is allowing you to bet more money with that information, and 3) your chances of winning the hand are better than the dealer's.

With those reasons working in your favor, Gene, especially reason number three, doubling down when you're more likely to win the hand than not, why would you not want to put up the maximum amount?

The primary reason you play blackjack over most other casino games is because it offers opportunities where you can have the edge over the casino, not the other way around. Hereafter, Gene, never shortchange yourself when a doubling down situation arises.

Dear Mark: Is there any one particular seat at a blackjack table that gets better cards? Sunny G.

No seat, Sunny, be it first base or third, has a better chance of being dealt good cards.

Considering expert card counters who track what's been played, they do get to observe additional cards from the third base position before they make a decision, but that extra information only helps them, not the Average Joe.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Compulsive winning is as self-destructive in its own way as compulsive losing. --David Spanier, Total Poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 11, 2008

That Sweet Ol' Double Down Outpaces the Insurance Bet by a Mile

Dear Mark: Why is doubling down in blackjack so advantageous for the player? Also, why shouldn't I always take insurance? The worst that could happen is losing half my bet. Hector F.

The three main reasons why doubling down is so advantageous to you, the player, is because 1) you know the dealer's up-card, 2) the casino is allowing you to bet more money with that information, and 3) your chances of winning the hand, when you should to be doubling, are better than the dealer's.

You always want to bet more when the casino is at a distinct disadvantage so as to increase your potential return. Your edge comes from the new bet's paying even money on hands that you are favored to win.

Let me give you an example of where doubling down will give you a substantial edge over the casino.

Take doubling down on an 11 against a dealer six. The odds with this hand are that you'll win 63.3, lose 30 and tie 6.7 percent of the time. Play this hand for $5 a thousand times and you can expect to win $3,165 and lose $1,500 for a net profit of $1,665 on doubling this one wager alone.

Far too many players don't double, fearing that losing the extra bets might wreak havoc on their bankrolls. Hey, Hector; if you find you're getting cold feet betting one of the best wagers the casino has to offer, you shouldn't be on that denomination game.

Back when I dealt blackjack, I was always amazed at how many players would take insurance on every hand (even dog ones like a 16) when I was showing an Ace. They, as your question states, believed that the worst that could happen was losing half their wager.

God forbid (actually the casino forbade) me telling players that 10-point cards (10, J, Q, K) make up 31% of the deck, so there was a 69% chance that I didn't have a blackjack. With that 69% chance that the dealer doesn't possess a snapper, and there's you insuring your weak hand, you could easily lose both the insurance and your original bet.

So NO on insurance, Hector, even if you have a Blackjack. With a 3 to 2 payoff, you'll make more money in the long run by never taking it.

Dear Mark: Suppose I have the following hand: A Jack of spades, 10 of hearts, six of diamonds, four of clubs and a four hearts. Being that the pair of fours does not pay, wouldn't the correct strategy be to go after the royal (as you've stated in the past, that's what we're here for) and discard the fours? Don B.

Hold on, Don. When I made that statement, it was to debate keeping a high pair over a three-card royal. I stated; "the expected value (win potential) of three cards to a royal and a high pair is so insignificant, even I abstain from perfect basic strategy and jump on the chance, as remote as it might be, of hitting the elusive royal flush." As for a low pair hand, it is far superior to a single high card hand.

Let's review your example: A Jack of spades, 10 of hearts, six of diamonds, four of clubs and a four hearts. If you are trying to force as many royals as possible, sure, you hold just the Jack and discard the rest. But the expert play here is to hold the pair of 4s. The frequency of hitting two pair, three of a kind, full houses or four of a kind when you hold the low pair more than makes up for always chasing that elusive royal.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: In poker as in life, there will always be people who will take advantage of your weaknesses. --VP Pappy

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

April 4, 2008

So Much for Being a Penny Pincher

Dear Mark: I would like to share the following with your readers. Recently I lost over $500 in one session, get this, playing penny slots. I don't believe I have ever lost that much playing nickels, or even quarters. Being frugal just doesn't work in the casino. Timothy H.

Thanks for sharing, Timothy. The answer here is pretty simple. A "penny machine" isn't a penny machine if you play 25 coins per line. Really, how hard is it to bet a buck or more a spin on a penny machine? It isn't.

Unfortunately, the lower denomination machines are taking more and more space on the casino floor, and all penny slots offer a minimum bet of more than one unit. Most players get bored easily at a penny a pop, then gung-ho trigger happy for the Play Max button, and voila, they're $500 in the hole.

Dear Mark: I just saw the movie 21. Did I hear right that during one scene someone said that splitting 8s against a 10 was for suckers. Doesn't that run contrary to your writings that you should always split 8s? Rob B.

I've yet to see the movie 21, based on the book Bringing Down the House by Ben Mezrich, but had I been an advisor on that film, I probably would have caught that dialog error, had it appeared in the script, and suggested a change.

What you're really doing when you split 8s is breaking up a 16, the worst possible hand you can have in blackjack. When you split 8s, you will lose $44 for every $100 wagered. If you were just to hit the hand, you would lose $51 for every $100 bet. You may not necessarily always put extra jingle in your pocket by splitting 8s, but you will jingle louder and longer if you split 'em.

I'll stand firm, Rob, as would most blackjack writers, that the correct strategy is to split 8s against a 10. The lone exception on splitting 8s is that when surrender is allowed, you do it against an ace, if the dealer hits a soft 17.

Dear Mark: After the point has been established, why won't the casino allow you to make a Don't Pass bet? They do on the Pass Line. Sid D.

If they, they being the current casino owners, allowed you to go right up on the numbers without having to go through an initial placement on the Don't Pass line, they would be turning over the keys to the front door to the future casino owner, that being you.

Here's the arithmetic. On the come-out roll, when you first place a Don't Come bet, the house has eight ways to win if the 7 or 11 appear, and will lose only 3 ways if the 2 and 3 (the 12 being a push) are thrown. But once a number has been established, the player has a substantial edge over the house: six to five on the 6 and 8, three to two on the 5 and 9, and two to one on the 4 and 10.

They, and now that we know who they really is (or are), have no problem letting you make a Pass Line bet once a number has been established because that wager is paid off at even money. They have a large edge on this bet since before a number has been established, the player has eight ways to win if the 7 or 11 are rolled, but has four chances of losing if the 2, 3, or 12 appear.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Luck is a lady but--as with all ladies of class--she chooses her lovers imperiously. --Lyle Stuart

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 28, 2008

Insert your card for your fair share of freebies

Dear Mark: As a fairly new slots player, I have made certain observations, as well as heard things from other players. Is it true that once you have inserted your "players club" card into a machine, it knows how you gamble and can be the determining factor in whether you win or lose? I have observed in my most recent visits, that my chances of winning are greater, as well as the amount I win, if I do not put in my player's club card. Is that just a fluke? Geri L.

There is a darn good reason for you to be inserting your "player's club" card into a machine, that is, if you want to get your slice of over a billion dollars' worth of comps that casinos nationwide give away each year. You get your goodies by using one of their player's club slot cards, whose only purpose is to register the number of coins you cycle through a machine. What the machines are not programmed to do, Geri, is stiff you of jackpots because you're using one.

Slot machines are only preprogrammed to pay out a certain percentage on a random basis, notwithstanding all kinds of "fluke" streaks-good and bad-appearing. Because its decisions are random, it doesn't give one iota whether your player's club card is inserted or not. All the casino operators' care about is that after millions and millions of such decisions, "X" amount of money will be retained by the casino and lost by the players.

Dear Mark: I've written you in the past and you always answered and were most helpful. I was hoping to pick your brain on a Las Vegas question. In my past five visits to Vegas, I never tipped the parking attendant when I arrived at the casino, but always tipped the valet $5 when I left. Are you supposed to tip on both ends of the deal? Also I was reading the tipping advice from a Vegas commerce site and their advice was to tip the valet attendant two bucks. So have I been doing it wrong and have I been over tipping. I use about 40 valets over a 5-day period for one reason or another. Any insight would be appreciated. Still faithfully reading your column and enjoying it. Steve B.

Valet Parking is a free service offered not only in Las Vegas, but also pretty much at every casino nationwide. Along with knowing that valet parking is a complimentary service, it should also be known that casino employees work in a service-based industry and cannot survive on their salary alone. Their livelihood is based almost entirely on tips.

So how much makes you look like a cheapskate and how much makes you seem like a chump? Well, Steve, a friend of mine - who would like to remain unnamed -- who makes a tidy sum at one of the larger -- he'd like to keep that undisclosed, as well -- casinos on the Strip says that at least $2 for both dropping your car off and picking it up elevates you above el cheapo, $3 to $5 each way puts you in the generous category, and $20-and-up coming in will get "VIP" marked on your ticket, which gets your car up front and out a whole lot faster. Oh, and he also said, "Wave a buck in your hand on the pick up, and you'll be waiting for your car longer than it takes GM to build it."

If all this tipping seems a bit too philanthropic for your liking, his reply was, "Hey, it's Vegas baby."

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: I got cigar boxes full of bad checks from Square John Businessman, but not one from a gambler. --Amarillo Slim Preston

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 21, 2008

Bad paytables are found on bad video poker machines

Dear Mark: My question involves Video Poker. My wife and I for years have enjoyed playing this game in Vegas and Laughlin, several times a year. One disappointing thing we have noticed in the past couple years, has been a nearly non-existence of Royal Flush winners. In the "good old days," it seemed it wasn't unusual to hear one of your neighboring players scream when they hit the Royal. Now you rarely do.

I do know that the traditional "9-6" machines have pretty much been replaced with "8-5" or even "7-5" payoffs. Could this be the reason? Tom M.

Royal flushes of yesteryear are an easy urge to wax nostalgic for the "good old days." A lack of them goads this columnist into your question.

Correct your analysis is, Tom, in that replacing the traditional 9/6 machines with tighter paytables will produce fewer royal flushes, but it's not because the odds of hitting one are in any way altered. On average, once in every 40,000 hands some buckaroo like you is going to scream hallelujah. But when the paytables are tightened, you run out of funds faster, and there is fewer of everything, but what you miss the most is, of course, the Royal Flush.

Paytables, or pay schedules, which are always posted somewhere on the machine, tell you what each winning hand will pay for the number of coins played. Casinos can "loosen" or "tighten" the return of a game by manipulating the number of coins won on certain pay categories. For Jacks-or-better, it's the full house/flush numbers that are the primary indicator of a machine's payback percentage. That once traditional, now elusive, 9/6 machine you speak of is your return for a full house (9) and a flush (6) with one coin inserted. It's also associated with a house edge of 0.5%. Compare that to a 6/5 machine (six for a full house, five for a flush) that returns a payback of 95.00%; a 7/5 machine 96.15%; an 8/5, 97.30%; an 8/6, 98.39%; a 9/5, 98.45%.

Now here's a possible second reason for fewer royals. Payouts on video poker machines are determined not only by the pay schedule, but, also just as importantly, by how you select which cards to discard, since selecting the wrong cards to throw away will reduce the overall payout. Even if you're playing on a 9/6 machine, the odds won't swing in your favor unless you learn how to play each and every hand correctly. You might be surrounded lately by shoddy play.

Oh, and one more thing, Tom. For good measure we better talk about your shortened gambling "timeline" -- the time you spend at the machine. It is possibly limited to hundreds of hands of video poker, not millions, so any percentage return (like no bells or whistles going off for a royal) can, and will happen. The Law of Averages (more revealingly also known as the Law of Big Numbers) might not have had much of a workout during your time in the casino, and since the machine will, on average, display a royal flush every 40,000 hands, possibly you and surrounding players are not playing anywhere near that many hands.

Dear Mark: Do you know what is meant by 99% slot machine payback? Does every machine payback 99% of what you put in it? Phil G.

Each machine is distinctly designed and tested to assure the casino a definite payback percentage. The "payback percentage" is the portion of the money put into the slot that is eventually paid out to the player.

In the example you cite, a payback of 99%, the casino will over time keep about 1% of all money put into the slot. You, Phil, should get back 99 cents of every dollar you insert. Of course, don't expect 99 cents to clang in the tray for every dollar's worth of handle yanks. The percentage return is a long-term concept. Your gaming timeline (there's that word again) is possibly limited to 200 pulls of the handle, not millions, so any percentage return (as low as a goose egg to as high as a mega-jackpot), can, and will happen. Now that's deja vu all over again.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: To me, it seems like Hold'em is just a game for bullies with deep pockets. -Kevin Pollak

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 14, 2008

This Show Will "Blue" You Away

Dear Mark: Here in Detroit we have Las Vegas style casinos so I have never found the need to travel there, at least till now. The company I work for is sending me to work a booth at a tradeshow this spring and I will have at least one evening free to take in a show. After 12 hours working on the floor, what I am looking for is to just sit and be entertained. Any recommendations? Dolores N.

WARNING: Flashing red lights -- A biased opinion is about to come your way -- Flashing red lights.

Dog-tired after standing like a statue for 12 hours, what you need, Dolores, is a breath-taking 90-minute Broadway theoretical journey, one that combines music, comedy and some multimedia WOW. So even though two of my past recommendations were either Cirque du Soleil or the magic of Lance Burton, I now add to my must see/do list in Las Vegas the Blue Man Group at the Venetian.

I must admit, I knew nothing about Blue Man's unique, unconventional, avant-garde comedy until my son, Nick - speaking of bias - became a Blue Man. Yes, he's one of those drum-beating, Cap'n Crunch-chomping, Blue Men who can catch and pack 30 marshmallows in his mouth and regurgitate the yummy mass into a gestural abstraction valued at $4,000. This, he tells me, is where studying theater at the Cincinnati Conservatory of Music and the Chicago College of Performing Arts was well worth the cost of the big $$$ tuition. While I, silly me, sort of saw it like playing on a non-paying slot machine, $$$ down the drain.

So, what's the show about? Well, even after seeing it a half-dozen times and am now blood-related to it (currently Nick's doing his Blue Man shtick at the Briar Street Theatre in Chicago), the show is still somewhat hard to describe, but in a way, you may be better off not knowing. So, Delores, I will just wrap it up with this. If you are looking for a part Broadway show, part rock concert, and part performance art, and like to be entertained by things you have never seen before, then this is the show for YOU.

Dear Mark: You mentioned in a recent column regarding Megajackpots that the winner is not paid until the win is authenticated. Can you explain that sequence of events, from when you pull the handle to getting a check in your hand? Brian L.

Yes, Brian, I did state that when those geeenormous progressive jackpots on machines like Megabucks, Quartermania, the Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy, The Price is Right, etc., are hit, they are paid by the manufacturer of the slot, who, in the above examples being IGT, would send a representative to authenticate the win, and yet another rep to then pay off the winner.

So let's say you are playing Megabucks in Laughlin, NV and your stars align allowing those winning symbols to line up perfectly on the payline.

Five hundred and fifty miles north in Reno at an undisclosed location known only to Dick Cheney -- actually it's the IGT MegaJackpots operations room -- your jackpot triggers an alarm that a jackpot of size has been recorded on the system. That system will alert staff monitoring mainframes 24/7 which game you were playing on, as well as the location, time and the amount of your win.

Reno will then notify a technician in the area where you are playing so that he or she can inspect your machine and verify that the jackpot is legitimate. The techs do this by comparing various machine readings to the information originally received at IGT's secret bunker.

Once your jackpot is authenticated, a separate jackpot response representative will ask you to present two different forms of identification showing you are who you are, have you sign a bunch of forms like a W2G (IGT usually doesn't withhold state or federal taxes), and then present you with a check for the first of 25 annual installments if it was on an annuity game, or the full amount if you were playing on an instant winners game.

You then smile for the camera, and off you are on your merry way to start living the champagne wishes and caviar dreams lifestyle, or, blow it all in one year and then get on Oprah and tell us all how you did it.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Looking for justice in poker is like looking for virtue in a whorehouse. --Peter Alson, Take Me To The River

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

March 7, 2008

Ultimate Hold'em 101

Dear Mark: How about one of your Gambling 101's on a table game called Ultimate Texas Hold'em. I'd like to give it a go, but would love a primer from you before I try it out. David L.

ShuffleMaster's Ultimate Texas Hold'em pretty much has it all, David: aggressive betting, yet the ability to check through the river, optional Trips bonus bet (see question below), and yes, those bad beats and miracle draws. Played on a blackjack style table with a ordinary 52-card deck, Ultimate Texas Hold'em is a poker-based casino game where the players do not compete against one another, but head-to-head against the dealer.

To play, players make equal-sized bets in both the Ante and Blind circles, and an optional Trips bet if they so choose. Two cards are then dealt face down to each player and to the dealer. Players can then check or make a Play bet equal to 4X their Ante. Then the dealer turns over three community cards, known as the flop.

The player who had previously checked, can either check again, or make a Play bet equal to 2X his or her Ante. Any player, who had already made a Play bet, can bet no further. The dealer now reveals the final two community cards.

Any player, who had previously checked through the river, must now bet 1X the Ante or fold, losing both the Ante and Blind bets.

The dealer now reveals the two hole cards and the player and dealer both make the best possible hands using any combination of their own two cards and the five community cards.

If the player's hand beats the dealer's, both the Play and Ante bets are paid at even money. If the dealer's hand beats the player's, the player's wagers lose. If the player and dealer tie, then the Ante, Blind, and Play bets will all push.

There is a kicker, David, and that is that the dealer needs at least a pair to qualify. If the dealer doesn't qualify, he returns the player's Ante, but all other wagers receive action. Qualifying only matters for the purposes of the Ante bet.

Regarding the Blind bet, if the player has the higher hand, the Blind bet will pay according to a Blind Bet paytable posted on the game. If the dealer has the higher hand, the Blind bet loses.

The Trips bonus bet pays according to the value of the player's hand according to the table's paytable, regardless of the value of the dealer's hand.

As for strategy, David, because you are playing heads-up against the dealer, allow yourself to play a bit looser than you would on a live game of Texas Hold'em.

Also, since you can make just one raise at any allowable time during the course of the hand, the earlier the raise is made, the higher it may be. So, David, make the 4X pre-Flop wager with any two-card hand that has a pair of threes or higher, an ace, a king suited with any other card, a queen suited with six or higher, a jack suited with 8 or higher, an unsuited king with a five or higher, and an unsuited queen with an eight or higher.

Dear Mark: I'm in love with Ultimate Texas Hold'em. I do have one question though regarding one of the bets on the layout. The game offers an optional side bet called the Trips bonus bet. Is it worth playing, and by that I mean is it under your recommended two percent casino advantage? Jim S.

The optional Trips bonus bet you speak off pays odds if the player's final five-card hand is a three-of-a-kind or better regardless of the value of the dealer's hand. Although the paytable listed on the layout varies from casino to casino, if you find one that pays Trips 3 to 1, Straight 5 to 1, Flush 6 to 1, Full House 8 to 1, Quads 30 to 1, Straight Flush 40 to 1, and Royal Flush 50 to 1, the house edge is 1.9%, and obviously under my recommended "only make bets that have less than a 2% casino advantage."

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: In America the ultimate expression is greed is good. Las Vegas shows you that greed is at least fun. --PBS, American Experience.

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