Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 20, 2009

Those Thinking Machines Have Still Not Arrived

Dear Mark: If a machine has just paid out a jackpot, would you recommend moving to another machine being that the machine now has to recoup its losses? Dale M.

Far too many players erroneously believe that any machine that has just hit a jackpot won't hit another anytime soon because the machine has to re-prime the pump and win back the money it just forked out. No so, my friends.

It doesn't matter whether a machine has paid out one, or multiple payouts, as the odds of landing a winning combination are the same on each and every whirl. There's just no mathematical reason to switch machines after any number of winning, or losing, spins.

Now, Dale, if a machine isn't paying after a certain number of losing spins, and you're getting bit perturbed, yes, I can rationalize that as a good reason to switch, but that's an emotional reason, and not a mathematical justification for changing machines.

Dear Mark: If you are a member of a slot club and you receive cash back, gift or comp based on your play playing slots, does the casino report those perks to the IRS? Mary Ellen H.

The only thing the casino reports to the IRS is a slot win of $1200 or more, and for that you'll be issued a W2G, but what they don't do is report cash back, gifts, or comps that you receive based on your card use and patronage.

Dear Mark: Why are Don't Pass players allowed to take down their bets on a crap game but Pass Line players are not? I think this is unfair. Jason S.

Because if the casino allowed craps players to take down Pass line wagers at will, Craps would easily be a beatable game.

The reason being, Jason, is that on the come out roll, a Pass line player has eight ways of winning (dice combinations that make a seven or 11) and only four ways to lose: One way of making either the two or 12, and the two rolls that total three. Once a point has been established, that's when the casino makes its dough.

If the casino allowed you to take down your pass bets whenever you wanted, the intelligent play would be to bet Pass line on the come out roll, collect our winnings on 7 and 11 where you have eight ways of winning and only four of losing, and then take down your bets when any point was established. I hardly think the casino is going to allow you to win two-thirds of your bets without taking your lumps. Yes, you have an edge on the come out roll, but you have to bear an inferior position on subsequent rolls.

The Don't Pass bettor, endures his pain on the come out when they have eight ways of losing (7s and 11s) and only have three ways of winning (2, 3, 12). The smart move for them is to stay in play after a point has been established when the casino becomes the underdog, and they the favorite with a 66% chance of winning.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The root of all superstitions is that men observe when a thing hits, but not when it misses. --Sir Frances Bacon

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Slots Jackpot Comps Craps Don't Pass

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 13, 2009

Where She Drops, Nobody Should Know

Dear Mark: Do casinos have policies regarding the minimum number of revolutions a roulette ball should make before dropping off the track? What would be considered too few? If the roulette wheel stops moving before the ball lands in the pocket or stops in less than a quarter of a revolution after the ball lands in the pocket would that be cause for concern?

Consider the following scenario. A player comes to an empty table in the morning and bets ten dollars straight up on a single number. After that spin, a new dealer is brought in who turns his head to the side and yells out "What number do I have to hit?" The player bets another ten dollars on the same number. The new dealer says, "You can't bet on that number, you have to bet on the numbers that I pick." What are your comments on that? Daniel D.

Casino operators, Daniel, have plenty of security procedures in place to preserve the integrity of their games, out of self-interest, as well as to protect the general public. You know the deal: Casino managers watch the shift manager, who watches the pit bosses, who watch the floorman, who watches the dealers, while the "eye in the sky" surveillance cameras, watch everything. Believe me, Daniel, the last thing a casino wants is a rogue dealer who thinks he can sector-shoot, or a player exploiting a biased wheel or dealer by clocking the wheel.

Is the wheel coming to a dead stop while the ball is circling above on the track permissible behavior? Not in any joint that I ever dealt in, or probably any casino for that matter. "Round and round and round she goes, where she drops, nobody knows" is the tune all dealers should be adhering to.

When I dealt roulette, I was trained to either speed up or slow down both the wheel and ball delivery before each spin to avoid wheel clocking, but I've got to tell you, Daniel, to consciously sector-shoot or pocket a particular number with the wheel going one way, the ball the other, with frets impeding a descending ball and between the pockets, make it frankly impossible to anticipate where the ball is going to land. A slowing or stopped wheel surely helps, but casino operators, for obvious reasons, just aren't hip to that happening.

As for the dealer yelling out "What number do I have to hit?" or not allowing you to play certain numbers, well, more than likely it was just a flippant remark and/or a rude dealer. Some dealers do believe they run the asylum.

The long and short of it, Daniel, is that every casino has its own set of guidelines for its dealers to follow, as well as a few procedures I'm sure of that keep the wheel speed within a certain range, and of course, players being allowed to bet the numbers of their choosing. Calling over a pit boss and explaining your situation should correct both problems.

Dear Mark: If a casino advertises video poker machines that can return up to 100%, wouldn't they be losing money? Glen D.

Yes, but only if every player had access to "selected machines," and understood and used perfect basic strategy. But since "selected machines" can be fewer than a half dozen on the casino floor, and probably less than one percent of players effectively play perfect basic strategy, the casino won't lose money by making such an offer. Oh, and Glen, one of the tricks of the trade is for the casino to surround those "selected machines" with others that have pay tables offering significantly lower payoffs, guaranteeing even more winnings from the uneducated - and therefore preferred - patrons.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The stock market is a huge casino, larger by factors of magnitude than all the casinos of the world combined. --Ion Saliu

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Roulette Dealer Video Poker 100% Return

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 6, 2009

MI Consumers Not on the Need To Know List

Dear Mark: Is it my imagination, or have the casinos in Detroit tightened up the percentages won by them? Before building the new casinos, my husband and I seemed to have more luck than we do in their newer ones. Not only that, but they didn't bring over some of our favorite quarter machines. Dorothy D.

Dear Mark: Could you please supply me with a figure as to the return on slot machines on Indian reservations in Michigan? Robby B.

Unfortunately, Dorothy, and you also, Robby, I can't provide you with percentages won or return figures for Michigan casinos, because no public information is available regarding payback percentages on Detroit's gambling machines, and the Indian casinos of Michigan are not required by law to release information on their slot machine percentage paybacks. Nonetheless, according to the Michigan Racing Commission, which is responsible for regulating the tribes' slot machines, the casinos must meet the same standards for machines as in New Jersey or Nevada. In New Jersey the minimum return is 83%; in Nevada it's 75%. Thus, Michigan Indian casinos must return at least 75% in order to comply with the law, which, at that rate of return, suggests you might as well mail in your money and save the travel costs. Luckily, what cures minimal returns is a dose of healthy competition. With Detroit's three casinos, Caesars Windsor and tribal gaming throughout the state, there is some, but with competition today being so fierce for your entertainment greenback, it really is a shame that Michigan doesn't allow you to compare returns from Casino A versus Casino B.

Moreover, Michigan just so happens to be one of the few states that doesn't report returns. For example, in Nevada, they break the returns down to geographic areas, like the Strip whose quarter machines return 91.09% versus Downtown's higher return of 94.42%. In states like Illinois, figures from the Illinois Gaming Board tell me the average slot payback percentage on all slot machines for individual casinos. For instance, the Alton Belle averages 93.61% a year.

So folks, for those of you who gamble outside the Great Lake state, percentage returns are public information and can usually be found in your local paper, so, let me scream here, SHOP FOR VALUE!

Back to you, Dorothy, and where did those favorite quarter machines of yours go? Well, in the eyes of the Casino Wizard, aka the slot manager, slot machines need to show reasonable results or their replacement is inevitable. A slot machine's performance is measured in two ways: the value of coins wagered daily ("coin in") and the value collected daily by the casino ("win"). Possibly the performance of the machines that you enjoyed playing was not up to par, or, they simply weren't the newest, latest greatest, one-armed bandits, and the slot manager decided a change in the slot mix was needed.

Dear Mark: My wife and I are headed back to Las Vegas in November. I usually play video poker and craps. I'm going to play some three card poker during this trip. I've been practicing playing on a web site, but your insight on some basic strategy would definitely help. I'm not sure if always placing a bet on the "Pairs Plus" spot " is the smart play. Craig L.

Stick with this simple betting strategy, Craig. Only make the "play" wager if you have at least a queen, six, and a four in your hand. By using this approach, the house edge on the "ante" wager is about 2.1%.

Although placing a bet on the "Pairs Plus" has a slightly higher casino edge of 2.3%, it's tolerable, and worth an occasional play.

Oh, and while I'm at it, Craig, don't forget searching out the best paytables for video poker and use basic strategy. With craps, limit your play to a pass line bet with odds or placing the six and/or eight. All the wagers recommended won't necessarily guarantee you'll leave Las Vegas with a small fortune. For that you'd start with a large one. But it should keep you in action longer, and yes, give you some fun while you're there.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. --Winston Churchill

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Return Slot Machine Three Card Poker Video Blackjack

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 30, 2009

Toke Tapping Tenets for Tipsters

Dear Mark: I read an article by Henry Tamburin in which he states that the best way to tip a blackjack dealer is to place the "tip chip" on top of one's bet in the layout circle and if you lose the hand the dealer gets nothing, but if you win, you reward him the tip chip amount. The article states that most dealers prefer this method of tipping rather than just being given a tip. Since you once dealt blackjack, perhaps you have an opinion on this.

But, with this method of tipping isn't the player trapped into making a "double tip" should his cards need splitting? On a double down, the player would be okay, as he could double less the "tip chip", but I think he is trapped with the split if my memory is correct in that one has to bet the same amount on a split. I thought you might have some suggestions on this. Mac B.

As with most service industry jobs, Mac, most front-line casino employees get paid minimum wage. The majority of a casino dealer's pay comes through the gratuities of casino patrons, like you.

In dealer jargon, a tip is called a toke. You can offer your toke directly to the dealer, or you can place a side bet on top of or in front of your wager for the dealer. So which do dealers prefer? As Henry states correctly, most dealers favor a side bet alongside yours rather than receiving the toke directly. This side wager makes them feel like they're also in action and have a stake in the game. A bet for the dealer provides a little excitement in what can be a pretty tedious job at times. Check that. Pitching cards and performing mind-numbing mental calculations like counting to 21 is tedious all of the time.

As for a "double tip" if you choose to double down or split pairs in favorable situations, yes, I guess you could look at it that way, but you are under no obligation to double your tip, nor does it have to be the same amount. I would guesstimate that half the players do add to their original bet for the dealer, half do not.

Personally, Mac, I've always looked at doubling up for the dealer as a contribution to the Dame of Fortune, Lady Luck. Besides, dealers need those gestures of gratuity to make a decent wage. If the casinos had to pay a true living wage to dealers instead of dealers accepting tips, casinos would have to figure a way of making up for lost revenue. For starters, they would change the rules of the game, increase table minimums, and even alter paybacks, like paying even money on a blackjack.

Bottom line, Mac, only tip what you are comfortable with, and only tip for good service. Even I, with 20 years on the inside, won't tip a disgruntled blackjack dealer.

Dear Mark: What is your favorite Gambling Wisdom of the Week quote? Alastair K.

Gambling quotes, Alastair, seem to take on a life of their own. Take for instance one quote that's attributed to Yours Truly; "The smarter you play, the luckier you'll be." That quote has found its way into a half dozen books, and not necessarily on gambling. It even appears on page two of The Acquisitive Distributor: 4 Keys to Success When Buying a Wholesale Business. I would add that tome to my personal library, being that I'm in it, but it's $239.80 at Amazon so I'll pass.

Picking one, Alastair, gosh, there are so many good gambling quotations. I've always been humored by this one: "Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit." -R. E. Shay

Years working the Green Felt Jungle makes me appreciate this dilly: "A gambler with a system must be, to a greater or lesser extent, insane." George Augustus Sala (1828-95) English writer and journalist.

But I would have to say this gem from Proverb is probably my favorite: "In a bet there is a fool and a thief."

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Gambling pulls at the core of a man --Meyer Lansky

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Blackjack 21 Tipping Tokes

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 23, 2009

Some dealers have blackjack strategy know-how, others do not

Dear Mark: I wanted to comment last week about dealer's giving blackjack advice. My experience is that all they have ever given is bad advice. The soft 18 you mention this week is the prime example. Not only do I have everyone at the table angry at me for hitting an 18, the dealer usually chimes in that I shouldn't have done that or trying to talk me out of it when I ask for the hit.

Another dealer got angry at me for not drastically increasing my bets when I won seven hands in a row. I argued that the next hand could have as easily been a loss of my hard earned profits. By the way, I walked away from table eventually with a win, albeit small. Phil R.

Hold on, Phil. The question I answered was in regard to WHETHER dealers were allowed to give advice, and NOT whether you should seek counsel or whether a dealer's guidance is any good. Case in point: Yours Truly, who learned how to deal cards on an ironing board and while pitching cards across the room into a hat.

During my virginal hours of dealing blackjack, if a player got a pair of aces, and then split them, I made the airy decision that if he split aces and got two face cards he just got himself two blackjacks, so I paid off accordingly, 3 for 2. I was actually paying this unmerited royalty on split aces until a pit boss finally noticed my generosity. The last thing you would have wanted from me then was my $.02 worth, just the free money I was doling out.

The deal, pun intended, is that some dealers know the game cold and others don't. It would be much better to learn basic strategy to a point where it becomes your automatic response, or - while working up to that proficiency - to carry along a basic strategy card and refer to it in those tough-decision moments.

A basic strategy card gives you a concise and definitive play for every starting hand you will be dealt. Using a card will ram the casino edge down to less than 1%. As long as you do not bring a blackjack game to a dead halt, most casinos will allow you to use your strategy card right at the table. This way, Phil, the advice is right every time.

As for a dealer getting hot and bothered about you not increasing your bets while winning, he might have been trying to recommend the 50% winning progression method of wagering. The progression would work like this for a $5 wager: $5, $7, $10, $15, $22, 30 etc. You keep increasing your bet until you lose, starting back over with a flat bet (table minimum) of $5. Winning progression is actually not a bad way to go, Phil, and you might want consider it over flat betting.

Dear Mark: Last week in Vegas we were at the Wynn Casino and I was watching a table game called 'Blackjack Switch.' The dealer was trying to get me to join the others in playing the game by telling me it had better odds than Blackjack. After watching for 45 minutes I could not see how the player had better odds. If anything, I think the odds were greater for the casino. Almost every round the player lost at least one of the two hands.

My thought is this is another gimmick to take our money with the odds much higher for the casino than in regular Blackjack. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Frank S.

Yes, Frank, there is such a gimmick game where they actually allow this cheating maneuver, swapping cards between two hands.

Called Blackjack Switch, it is a mutant form of blackjack where a player is dealt two hands and is allowed to trade cards between them. Outwardly, Frank, this seems like a great rule that favors the player, but unfortunately any gain is offset by the other rules that favor the house. Natural blackjacks are paid 1:1 instead of the standard 3:2, and a dealer 22 is a push.

Yet, even with rules that counter any advantage gained by being allowed to interchange your cards between hands, the house edge with perfect basic strategy, which is difficult and specific only to this game, along with the different rule variations from casino to casino, is relatively small, anywhere from 0.16% - 0.58%, which, Frank, can be lower than in regular blackjack.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Man conceals; poker reveals. --Lee Robert Schreiber, Poker as Life

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Blackjack 21 Dealer Blackjack Swim

1 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 16, 2009

Feed the right machine the right strategy and it's fun times all the way

Dear Mark: When playing video poker would you suggest staying with Jacks or Better or are there better machines to play? Tim F.

There are more than a hundred different video poker variations to choose from, Tim, games like Jacks, Joker Poker, Deuces Wild, Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus, etc., and all of them have different pay tables necessitating distinct playing strategies.

Given such a supermarket selection of machines, I recommend learning and limiting your play to two. And which two are they? Well, Tim, what it really boils down to is playing on a machine that has the highest return to the player. It's all about the pay tables, Tim, and using a correct strategy for your chosen machine.

Your biggest advantage in playing video poker is that you can determine the "Expected Return" (ER) of a machine just by looking at the pay table on the front of thing.

Some video poker games even offer an over-100% return in concert with the correct playing strategy. Although most of the games with a "Positive Expectation" (100% payback) are offered where gaming is competitive, e.g. Nevada, there are plenty of full-pay video poker machines that offer decent returns in many other gaming jurisdictions. When you couple a full-pay video poker machine with incentives like cash back, free play, and other comps and goodies, video poker can become a winning proposition.

To learn how to identify decent pay tables and the proper strategy for them, an appropriate Google search might be: "poker pay tables, strategy." If you're not interested in learning proper strategy, Tim, or seeking out liberal pay tables, then plan on video poker becoming a disappointingly expensive form of gambling.

Dear Mark: In regards to your column last week on whether a dealer can offer suggestions, I ran across one of those dealers who worked in a casino where he couldn't give advice, but I did ask him as I was leaving what he thought of my game. As I left the table he said my game was okay, but that I should be taking some extra hits when it came to soft hands. So, Mark, any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Terrance T.

Players make more mistakes with soft hands (a hand which includes an Ace that can be used as a one or an 11) than with any other hand in blackjack. You wouldn't misplay them quite so often if you commit to memory these two simple rules:

First, you can never bust a soft hand with a one-card hit. If you have a soft 15, such as Ace-2-2, and draw a face card, you can only make it a hard 15, with the Ace now being used as a one.

Second, soft hands of 17 and lower cannot win outright unless the dealer busts. So. Terrance, if you can't bust your own hand with a one-card hit, and you're sitting on a hand that can't win unless the dealer busts, the question becomes, why would you stand? With a soft 17 or lower, the decision is whether to hit or double down our your first two cards, and not whether to hit or stand.

But that's not to say you should hit all soft hands. You want to stand on a soft 19, 20 or 21, and on occasion, a soft 18. The soft 18, Terrance, is the tricky one. Most players figure it to be a decent hand, but unfortunately, a soft 18 is not a winner in the long run if the dealer's up card is a 9 or higher. So, Terrance, hit a soft 18 if the dealer's up card is a 9, 10-value or Ace. Stand on soft 18 if the dealer is showing a 2, 7 or 8, and double down if their face-up card is a 3, 4, 5 or 6.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: I won't say he's dumb, but when he won a gold bracelet at the World Series of Poker, he was so proud of it, he had it bronzed. -VP Pappy

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Video Poker Typesblackjack 21 Help

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 9, 2009

Stepmother has a false notion on how slots work

Dear Mark: My stepmother likes to play the slots, and she does quite well at times. She believes starting off the day by putting in a $100 bill in her favorite slot machine--rather than several $20s--produces more, larger payouts. Any truth to this? Jeff J.

In the book, The Gambler, Fyodor Dostoevsky wrote; "Can one even as much as touch a gambling table without becoming immediately infected with superstition?" Seems your stepmother is tainted with the groundless belief in a supernatural agency; a belief, Jeff, held without reason.

Though I don't challenge Mom's right to believe in the tooth fairy, Jeff, slot machines, do not operate by artificial intelligence, improving your stepmother's payouts in light of her $100 prime-the-machine hunch. If anything, if she lacks the discipline to get up and walk when things go south, it could be more costly, in that she has committed $100 opposed to $20 to a cybernetic one-armed bandit whose built-in edge is a predetermined rate, and it wouldn't matter one iota what amount she puts in.

Let's say the return to player rate is 92%. What that means is that for every $100 your stepmother puts into the machine, She will be paid back $92. With all kinds of streaks---good and bad---appearing, in the long run the machine's return will tend to its preset rate and have nothing to do with the opening amount inserted.

Dear Mark: In all your years in the gambling business, have you ever heard of anyone filling out a perfect bracket for March Madness? Although he never wins our office pool, or even comes close for that matter, a coworker claims he's come pretty close in the past. Please prove it's bunk. G. R.

Never have, nor will I.

Now before anyone writes in stating anything's possible, I suggest you first run the math. Some quick back-of-the-envelope calculating suggests that filling out a perfect bracket means predicting the correct result of all 63 games, and that would mean your chance of perfection is one in two to the 63rd power, which just happens to be one in nine million trillion, that is 1/ 9,000,000,000,000,000,000. Sorta pretty, a nine followed by 18 zeroes, but poor odds, wouldn't you say? Your coworker's odds are far better for getting hit by a purple asteroid while driving to the state lottery office to pick up his Mega Millions winnings, for the second week in a row.

Dear Mark: A long time ago, you wrote that as a dealer, if the player asked, that you had no problem giving advice while you dealt the game. I found such a dealer this weekend in downtown Reno. Is this really allowed? Aaron K.

Obviously, Aaron, I can't speak for all casinos' internal rules and regulations, but of the three casinos where I pitched cards, in one it was forbidden, and it could get you more than a wrist slap; in the second, I guess you could say they sort of frowned on it, but without repercussion; and in the third, they didn't give a hoot, just so long as when you peeked under your Ace you then didn't give advice. All you can do, Aaron, is ask to see if it's allowed.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: You will be a sick bo' if you decide to play this game because, with one exception, the house edge ranges from the absurd to the obscene. --Frank Scoblete, Strictly Slots

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Slots March Madness Dealer

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 2, 2009

The quicksand known as Gambler's Fallacy

Dear Mark: I know you don't believe in the doubling up theory after a loss in blackjack, but after I have seven or eight losses in a row, wouldn't betting more be warranted, if not just for the due factor? Jim K.

Your compass is off, Jim, if it reliably shows your viewpoint regarding sequences in gambling. You believe that after so many losses, a win is more likely to occur to self-correct a losing streak. From your point of view, your statistical justification of seven or eight losses leads you to the faulty conclusion that, based on the past evidence of so many losses, a win is way overdue, and hence to the casino's favorite hunch: so why not bet more.

What you're describing, Jim, is called Gambler's Fallacy, and you, and far too many of your brother and sister players for that matter, erroneously believe that a sequence of events in a random process-separate hands of blackjack-will display the essential characteristics of long-term play even when the sequence is short.

As your query ponders, if you lost seven times in a row, should you wager heavily on the next hand because it's way overdue? But just because you have a deviation in one direction (Loss, L, L, L, L, L, L), that doesn't mean an aberration in the opposite direction will occur over the short run to restore balance. Deviations are not ‘corrected' as time goes on, just diluted. The same holds true with consecutive wins, that streaks may well continue after a series of winning hands. Yes, Jim, the deck might be ‘hot' while your hind end is sitting there, but the probability of subsequent wins doesn't necessarily increase the likelihood of a win.

The solution to Gambler's Fallacy is to treat each hand as an independent event. Cards, Jim, have no memory of any past actions.

Oh, and Jim, that logic of betting more after a loss is called the Martingale System, an historic name for doubling up after every loss. In essence, you the gambler double your previous bet (after a loss) to recoup that loss and also win back your initial wager. Above I discussed why this form of betting isn't foolproof, because you don't necessarily win even after an extended losing streak. But also, you don't have an inexhaustible bankroll, and the casino limits the maximum size of your wager. Let's say your initial bet is $10 and you lose, followed by $20 to recoup your losses. Then $40, $80, $160, $320, $640. You invested $1,240 just to get your measly 10 bucks back.

Then there is the possibility that you were playing on a table with limits of $10-$1,000. A string of seven defeats and the casino automatically protects itself by its table limit of $1,000, and you, Jim, in all probability, are wiped out by then, all in less than three minutes.

Dear Mark: Great column last week on multi-line/multi-coin video slots machines. So if I am to get you right, you are just recommending one coin per line, correct? Mary S.

That's right, Mary. On multi-line/multi-coin slots, I by and large recommend playing one coin per line, because more than likely, you are playing on a Straight Multiplier or "equal distribution" machine. The payouts on additional coins per line are just straight multiples of the one-coin payout on most of these machines, so there's no advantage to playing more than one coin per line.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: A belief which leaves no place for doubt is not a belief; it is a superstition. -Jose Bergamin, author

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 25, 2009

Those hungry multi-line/multi-coin machines warmly welcome all wallets

Dear Mark: I like to play multiple line slot machines in AC, but it seems the amount I bring to the casino does not lend itself to these type machines. I am a 25-cent machine player with usually $200 to play with for four hours. I seem to run out of money before the four hours elapse, so my question is, is the amount I bring large enough, or am I playing the wrong machines? Rachel B.

What you failed to mention, Rachel, is just how many coins we're talking about per spin? Five, nine, fifty? It makes a big, big difference.

Now, if you were a typical slot player on a 3-coin quarter machine, pushing the spin button every ten seconds, wagering 75 cents per push, you'd be betting $4.50 a minute, or $270 an hour. Since the average quarter machine returns approximately 92% to the player, over the long run, you'd be losing around $22 for every hour of play. A four hour session, Rachel, is going to cost you, on average, $88. Your stated bankroll of $200 should get you through.

However, playing these multi-line/multi-coin machines is something like playing on separate machines all at once, since all the lines and payouts operate independently, and each line wants its share of your quarters. The problem I see with your bankroll of just $200, is that not only could you be vastly under-funded, but also your average bets may be much larger than they seem.

Sure, you can play a quarter game for a single quarter, but the majority of players bet all the paylines. Bet one quarter on each of nine paylines, and you're betting $2.25 a spin, which is much more than betting three quarters at a time on a reel-spinner. Bet five coins per line on a nine-line quarter game, and you're betting $11.25 every yank of the handle, making you a $5 machine player, and not the 25-cent player you believe you are.

A $200 bankroll, Rachel, isn't enough for an ever-hungry multi-coin/multi-line quarter monster even if you're betting just nine quarters per spin. Using that 92% return as an example, your bankroll falls $60 short for four hours play. Wager five coins per line on a nine-line quarter game, and -- though you may have come to Atlantic City in your $25,000 car, you might go home in somebody else's $250,000 vehicle, a Greyhound bus.

The reason the casinos are putting in multi-line/multi-coin quarter machines is because players like you just love them. But you don't have to play them. You could amuse yourself on a 3-coin quarter machine instead; nor do you have to play every line if you do favor them. One way to stretch your bankroll is to play fewer than the maximum lines allowed. On most machines you only give up a little bit in hit frequency, and nothing in long-term payback.

Dear Mark: Recently on a crap game, I had $100 on the pass line, and $200 odds. The shooter clearly rolled an eight, the point, but the boxman yelled out something like "no roll." The next roll was a seven and I lost the $300. What gives him the right to call the roll off, when I clearly would have won? Matt R.

When the boxman supervising a crap game invalidates a roll, it's called "no dice." Usually this happens when one or both of the dice fail to cover much distance, they bounce off the game, a player tries to slide them, or the dice do not land flat.

I've sat box, Matt, and I can tell you that in a fast and furious game like craps, a boxman needs to make split-second decisions that won't always be favorable to you, the player. Without being there to eyeball the event, I'll just have to speculate that the boxman who made the call either thought it wasn't a legal toss, or one of the dice after landing was tilted at an angle in such a way that it wouldn't clearly distinguish it as the number you were looking for.

Unfortunately, Matt, even though you thought it looked like an eight, you got a "no dice" call, then the seven, cinco dos, adios.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly. --William Shakespeare, King Lear

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Slots Multi-line Multi-coin Craps "no Dice"

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 18, 2009

The Good Samaritan

Dear Mark: About a month ago, I was playing the 5¢ slots and lost about $20. When I took my player's card out, I noticed the machine next to me (no one was playing while I was there) had a ticket sticking out. I took the ticket, without looking at the amount, and asked a man and women standing in line at the cashier's cage if they were on that machine. They said "no" and I told them about the ticket. He asked how much it was for and only then did I looked at the winnings. It was $644 and some odd cents. He exclaimed, "that's your money, it can't be tracked to the owner." I knew it wasn't my money and went back to check the player card slot, which was empty. While walking to the restaurant, I encountered a gentleman wearing a suit and badge from the casino. I proceeded to tell him the story. Without a word, he grabbed the ticket from my hand and said "that is not your money." I knew full well it wasn't mine, but asked how and if the casino could check on the rightful owner. It was explained that they could track the owner if he/she used a player's card. It was also explained to me that if they didn't, the money was still not mine, and that it belonged to the casino. The security person also said if it was under $500, the rules were different. That's the part I am not sure of. I am an honest person, and knew the money was not mine, but if the owner could not be found, (didn't use a player card) I don't think the casino should get the money back. So, Mark, is the money the casinos? Could I have put the ticket in a machine, with no player card, and gambled with the money? What would have happened if I had worked the money down to under $500 without a card?

P.S. The woman who left the ticket behind did use a player card and we did find her. She was elderly, had been winning all day (she said) and didn't miss the $664 she left in the machine. Joan C.

At the outset, Joan, let me tell you what casinos don't want. Somebody making a full-time occupation cruising the casino scavenging for the millions abandoned each year by gamblers who forget their stored credits, coins in the tray, lost chips on the ground, or in your case, a winning ticket protruding from a machine. You might not have been foraging for free money, but for those who purposively circle the casino looking for orphan anything, it's illegal.

I can't speak directly to rules governing a Canadian casino, or their $500 rule, which, Joan, I have never heard of, but the seven joints where I worked, and most other casinos for that matter, take the position that abandoned currency or credits, of any amount, belongs to them.

So what happens if you find a winning slip that was left behind? Do you leave it alone, play it, or do you alert an attendant? Yes, you could have easily reinserted the slip in another machine, even cashed it out and probably would have gotten away with it, but giving it to an attendant, who could have easily tracked down the rightful owner if they were using a player's card, was the virtuous thing to do. I suspect though, that a good number of players would have probably taken the money and run.

A few tips for other slot-playing patrons, not you of course, is that if you plan circumnavigating the casino looking for an easy score, you might want to also be aware that the second you set foot in a casino that you are on film, and any inappropriate behavior becomes obvious in short order. Always use your Player's Club Card, if but for the reason above. And finally, before you walk away from any slot machine, don't forget to press the cash-out button, and for gosh sakes, take your winning ticket.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Players are held in the trap by the idea that a jackpot may be just a pull away. --Alan Krigman, Winning Ways

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Slot Found Ticket

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 11, 2009

The Casino's Bread is Now Buttered by Slot Players

Dear Mark: The casino where I play has curtailed not only the amount of blackjack games now available, but also the comps they give to their blackjack players. I've inquired to as why this is so, and their response is that we are now catering more to slot players than we have in the past, and he said it was at the expense of the table games. Does this make sense to you? I might only be a nickel ($5) player, but I still give my fair share to the house, even when playing smart by using basic strategy. Gerald C.

Truth be told, Gerald, slot players yanking handles is now the butter for casinos' bread. Slot machines don't take sick days, need vacation time, and their health care coverage consists of a slot mechanic with screw driver. Oh, and they don't whine when you work em' overtime on weekends.

Let's do the math, Gerald, to see why casinos think the way they do, by you going toe-to-toe, mano-a-mano against Geraldine, a nickel (in her world a nickel is five cents, not five dollars) slot player.

For starters, the casino is going to get a lot more action out of Geraldine at 500 spins per hour than the 50 hands of blackjack you might play at a full table. But it's not just because of the hands per hour that they're grinning ear to ear when Geraldine sits in front of a nickel machine, but the savory scent of the much higher house edge that slots carry over blackjack. The casino is going to keep something like 12 percent of every nickel Geraldine inserts, while keeping only a half of one percent against you, a basic strategy player at blackjack.

So there's you, a $5 blackjack basic strategy player at a full table, betting $250 per hour, averaging roughly $1.25 in losses.

Then there's our nickel slot player, Geraldine, who bets one coin per line on a five-line game -- 25 cents a spin -- wagering about $125 an hour and averaging approximately $15 in losses. As you can see, Gerald, Geraldine's losing action blows yours away. And yet, she's rejoicing, because she is finally being appreciated where you play.

Dear Mark: Perfect basic strategy at blackjack tells you to hit a 12 against a two or three. Yet when you do, especially when playing third base, you can get a lot of grief from fellow players. How come most players don't know the difference between hitting and not hitting on this hand? Ned F.

I know that you know, and most of those reading this column know, the difference, so what follows is for those other people who don't. To clarify, far too many players blame the anchorman (third base) for giving the dealer an advantage by hitting or standing in the same manner they would. But hitting 12 against 2 or 3 is mathematically the correct move no matter where you are sitting at the table.

Without considering depletion of deck, your chances of not busting when you HIT a 12 are 9÷13, or 69.23076%. So why stand on that 12 when you know that if you hit it, the odds significantly favor an improvement of your hand? But you already knew that, and you also know that if you do not HIT, your only chance of winning with a 12 is if the dealer busts, and he has that same 69% plus chance of making his hand as you did.

Just block out the grumbling, Ned, from players who think that you are "taking the dealer's bust card." You don't have, nor do they, any control over the order of cards in the deck, and by hitting the 12, you are just as likely to take a card that would have benefited the dealer's hand as one that would have busted it.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The first time I looked at a video poker strategy chart, I thought I'd accidentally been given the one written in Greek. --Angela Sparks

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Blackjack Slots Third Base 21

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 4, 2009

The RNG neither frowns nor smiles

Dear Mark: Please explain the frequency of wins on a slot machine. For instance, sometimes the machine will give away money, spin after spin, and then it comes to a complete halt. I could hit that spin button 20 times in a row, and not a winner will appear. Can the random number generator be set to stop hits after so many wins, so that I end up giving it all back in the end? Billy H.

A random number generator, Billy, has no brain, no preferences, and but one function: generating random numbers. It doesn't give the minimal shadow of a hoot what those numbers are used for; so by design it can't generate a predestined sequence of wins or losses.

Wins that occur spin after spin, then the well running dry, and consequently your giving it all back, have to do with normal randomness, your short gaming timeline, and the fact that you are playing on a negative expectation game.

You can't alter chance, Billy, but you can learn to play Froggy and leap when losing.

Dear Mark: I am curious as to which is your favorite buffet in Las Vegas. I'm going with a group from work, and as a whole, we decided that price was not an object, just quality. Your recommendation would be appreciated. By the way, we love your column at work so much that it gets posted each week in the break room. Jason S.

Thanks for the nice words about my column. The last time my name was posted in a break room was getting caught skiing after I had already called in sick, so my chastisement was dealing 50¢ blackjack, indefinitely, or at least until the next screw-up, screwed up.

One thing that's guaranteed about Lost Wages, oops, I meant Las Vegas, is that you really can't come home from your visit with nothing. Your homecoming comes guaranteed with some extra pounds, especially if you partake of a feeding frenzy at an All-You-Can-Eat buffet. And since you threw in that money's no object, my personal recommendation for thriving gluttony -- where you can expand two belt sizes in one sitting -- is at Wynn Las Vegas.

Yep, the prices are steep, $22.95 for lunch, $34.95 for dinner, but one thing Steve Wynn has always done right, going all the way back to the Golden Nugget, are buffets. The food quality and service at Wynn Las Vegas have limited peers.

If you think it's a little on the expensive side, Jason, sell your coworkers on the fact that it's less than five minutes on a dollar slot machine or two hands of blackjack.

Dear Mark: I recently saw a man keeping a log of all the numbers that were coming up on a video keno machine. This person claimed that certain numbers, especially certain odd ones, were appearing more often than others. He said he's been tracking numbers for eight hours straight and was starting to see distinct patterns. His proof was that he was up $250 playing specific numbers. Any merits to his system? David D.

Even with a seat time of eight hours, and assuming he is ahead by tracking numbers, I still would chalk it up to nothing more than a lucky streak, David.

On a properly functioning video keno machine, no specific numbers or combination of numbers are any more likely to appear than any other number or combination of numbers. Possibly, your chartist had stumbled on a machine that had had too many margaritas spilled on it, with unplanned results.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: In gambling, and only in gambling, nothing depends on anything." --Bersabe & Arias, Superstition in Gambling

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: RNG Slots Las Vegas Buffet Video Keno

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 28, 2009

This Cultist Can't Offer Reader Counsel

Dear Mark: I'm figuring you are the go to person regarding this gambling related question. Could you please give me some recommendations on gambling software for Windows that you have tried over the years? Nick G.

In April of 1984, I walked into a computer store in Reno, NV, walked out with a Macintosh 128, then drove my newest prized possession up the hill to Lake Tahoe in a automobile worth half what the computer cost. Scores of Macintoshes since, and I'm figuring no less than 25, I'm still with the Apple family. I've never owned, met, acknowledged nor operated a Windows machine. Apple's slogan then, "if you can point, you can use a Macintosh" appealed to the right side of my noggin. I know, Nick, it's not a religion, it's a computer, still, I'm just not your "go-to" guy, especially when it comes to doling out field test advice regarding Windows gambling software.

So instead, I'm going to recommend that you check out the Gamblers Book Shop at (http://www.gamblersbook.com) or call 800-522-1777). Their collection of gambling software is second to none, all meritoriously described in their FREE catalog. Ask for it, it's great.

Now if only I had bought some shares of Apple along the way.

Dear Mark: I play blackjack at MGM casino in Detroit, and have a question about the number of decks used. Their tables are $10 to $25 using eight decks and $50, $100 and $200 tables using six decks. My question is this: Is it better to play at a table with six decks or with eight decks, regardless of the denomination? Sonia K.

I'm leery of giving guidance when I see the words "regardless of the denomination" in the question. Reason being, Sonia, I don't want you to be one of those every man-Jack and every woman-Jill's who mulishly stays at any table, no matter what the denomination, getting whacked hand after hand, figuring they are due.

The better way to play is to get on a game with the lowest denomination table available, and when things start going south, you're only losing the table minimum. When the Gods of Gaming are rewarding you with good fortune, you can progressively bet more.

Anyway, all other rules of the game being equal, six decks handicap your play 0.54%, and eight decks 0.58%. Hardly a noticeable distinction, Sonia, when you're taking a beating and getting your head handed to you on a plate at 10X the amount you could be betting.

Dear Mark: I have been told, by casino employees, that the best bet in the entire house, bar none, is to go to the craps table and play $5 on the pass line, and $10 underneath. Do you agree? If not, what would you say is the best bet in the house? Larry M.

The suggestion from a craps dealer of making a pass line bet, and taking odds, is a sound guerilla gambling strategy. With a $5 pass line bet on the number 10, if you win, your pass line bet is paid at even money, bringing you $5 in winnings, but your odds bet is paid at the 2-1 true odds, bringing you an additional $20. By making use of them, double odds drops the house edge to 0.6 percent, 10x odds to 0.2 percent and 100x odds, all the way down to 0.02 percent. So yes, Larry, it's one of the best bets.

But there are other good bets the casino offers as well. Blackjack and video poker using basic strategy, and baccarat.

Playing Blackjack correctly brings the house edge down to well under one percent. Video poker gives you another opportunity where playing perfect basic strategy on a machine with a decent pay schedule can reduce the house advantage to well under one percent.

Baccarat's offering has a slightly higher edge, but is one of the easiest casino games to play, especially since you don't even have to know the rules, the hitting sequence being predetermined. The house advantage is either 1.17% when betting the bank hand or 1.36% with a player hand wager.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: There are three kinds of poker players: Raisers, who make things happen, folders, who avoid things that happen, and callers, who wonder, 'What the hell just happened?' --VP Pappy

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Gambling Software Blackjack Craps Best Odds

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 21, 2009

Persnickety Play Could Make Your Day

Dear Mark: Could you please explain how slot tournaments work? I'm entering a $50 dollar tournament at our casino and I was wondering if you had any strategies on winning? Megan H.

Dear Mark: How does a Casino turn a bank of low payout slots into VERY HIGH payout slots for a tournament and then back again to low payout mode without changing a computer chip inside the machine? Harvey S.

I'll get to your query in a second, Harvey, but let me take a whack at Megan's question first.

The tournament format that you are probably playing in, Megan, is one that uses timed sessions with machines in free-play mode, meaning, you don't have to put any money in the machine to play. Your up-front $50 entry fee is your total cash outlay. A typical format when playing free-play tournaments is to give each player 1,000 credits and 20 minutes to play them, per round. Each time you tap the spin button, three credits are deducted from your starting credits, and credits that you win are shown on a separate meter. When time has expired, the machine will automatically lock up ending the play.

Any credits that you have not played will be lost. A tournament director records each player's win meter at the conclusion of each round, and the player with the most cumulated points at the end of the tournament wins. Your main objective, Megan, is to make use of all your credits within the specified time period. By not using up all your credits, you lessen your chances of winning because players who are Speedy-Gonzales- fast when hitting the spin button will have more spins than you, which makes them more likely to have more points.

Here's the deal, Megan. The simple fact is that no slot strategy will make you a long-term winner at the slot machines. In spite of that fact, in a slot tournament there just happens to be one simple strategy: Get in as many spins as you can. Just keep your fingers on the spin button and get skilled at pushing it with split second military precision. What I mean by that, Megan, is that the machine will not spin until the winning credits have been tallied and displayed on the screen, so timing is everything. You need to be prepared to push the button instantly after your credits have been tallied.

Another tip, Megan, is to concentrate on your play, and your play only. Don't be a Lookie Lou gawking at the scores of your opponents. A few precious seconds here or there can sometimes be the decider on whether you advance to the next round.

Okay, Harvey, let's talk about that tournament chip.

Prior to any slot tournament, a slot technician with a tournament-mode computer chip, which changes a machine from normal play to tournament play, swaps each machine's computer chip out. Because the chips are uniform in nature, each slot machine used in any given tournament has as good a chance of winning as any other machine, which insures that all participants are playing on equal footing.

What's important to note here, Harvey, is that the long-term payback purposely programmed into the tournament chip is a great deal higher than that used in a normal slot machine chip.

Although the random number generator (RNG) stays the same, the machines are loosened up by changing the layout of the symbols on the virtual reels, hence, Harvey, you'll see those VERY HIGH payouts at tournaments, but not with conventional play.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Horse sense is a good judgment which keeps horses from betting on people. --W.C. Fields

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Slot Tournament

0 comments View Entry

Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 14, 2009

Making money on a losing situation, sort of

Dear Mark: I play a decent game of blackjack, but one hand gets the best of me, possibly because I wing it more than I should rather than stick to playing basic strategy. It seems every time I am dealt a hard 12, I get a bust card, so on more occasions than not, I stand. I typically play every other week, two five-hour sessions per, on $10 games. I would like to know how much I'm getting hurt by not hitting 12's. Michael W.

"Winging it" on this particular hand, Michael, isn't the worst mistake you can make at blackjack, but there is a correct way to play it.

A hard 12 (face-two) with the dealer presenting a two as an upcard is virtually a toss up between standing and hitting, yet the percentages favor hitting, albeit slightly. Let's do the math.

For every 1,000,000 hands where the dealer is showing a two, you'll get your troubling hard twelve 6,230 times. Stand on it, Michael, and you'll win 35% of the time; hit it, 37%. Yes, a losing proposition of 63% versus 65%, so let's just see how much that 2% gain by hitting a hard 12 is worth monetarily to you.

As you stated, based on your playing 20 hours of blackjack a month at $10 per bet, you'll save yourself on this one hand around $60 a year just by hitting versus standing on a hard 12. Sure, Michael, it's a lousy hand, but hitting a hard 12 is the better play, and it will save you some dough in this losing situation.

Dear Mark: Where I play, the casino offers a single zero roulette wheel. With the 00 eliminated, when you see a streak of five or six in a row with one color (black), wouldn't it be smart to bet the other way being that the other color (red) is due, and the 00 isn't there to hurt you? Nate R.

Before I move to your question, Nate, for all those who dabble in roulette, it's important to note that with this game, the casino's steep edge of 5.26% comes from the presence of the 0 and 00 on the layout. The casino pays all wagers according to how the odds would be if there were just 36 numbers on the wheel, even though, with the addition of the 0 and 00, there are in fact 38 numbers. The true odds of hitting your selected number are 1/38, yet winners are paid only 35-1. And even on a single-zero game, the house still pays 35-1, with the true odds improving to 1/37, which cuts the house edge about in half to 2.6%.

Now to your question, Nate.

That little white ball going round and round doesn't give a hoot whether black or red has appeared five, six or even 10 times in a row before it drops in the pocket. In fact, the chance of your winning the next spin is independent of your wins or losses on the last 10 spins, 100 spins, or a thousand spins.

Yes, Nate, sooner or later the number of times you win will close in on the house edge of 2.6% (single zero game), but sooner or later could be a long time. Over the short run, like the few hours you might be playing, that tiny sliver of time can't improve the likelihood of a win based upon what has happened in the past.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: I once saw a couple who stopped to hug and kiss after every 4-of-a-kind while playing video poker. --Jean Scott, Frugal Video Poker

===============================================
You can email Mark your questions at pilarski -at- markpilarski.com

Tags: Mark Blackjack Single Zero Roulette

0 comments View Entry