Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 28, 2008

Smaller Bankroll Needed for Video Poker

Dear Mark: Taking your advice, any time I'm given the choice, I play video poker over slots. My question is, do you still need the same sized session bankroll for video poker as you would for slots? Dana S.

Your bankroll, Dana, the money you will need to set aside specifically for playing video poker, would be less than you'd set aside for slots, because poker machines tend to have higher hit frequencies than do slot machines.

A session bankroll for video poker would be the amount for 75 hands, which should be enough to keep you playing for a couple hours. For slots, 100-plus hands would be the minimum, although both sums, Dana, could fall far short when you're having one of those "takin' a lickin'" days.

Dear Mark: My husband left a cold video poker machine and within two minutes someone else sat down on the machine he was playing and instantly hit a four-of-a-kind, followed a few minutes later by a royal flush. Would another $10 in that machine have gotten him the same hands? Sherry F.

I share your disappointment, Sherry, in giving up on a cold machine, only to see someone else plop down in front of it and good fortune suddenly blesses the newcomer.

Yet, the chill comfort I can provide you is in letting you know that all machines cycle through thousands and thousands of outcomes each and every second. Your husband would have had to hit the deal button at the exact same instant that the following player did in order to have had that four-of-a-kind, let alone the royal. A millisecond difference, earlier or later, would have produced a less juicy outcome.

Dear Mark: Unless you tell the dealer otherwise, place bets are always "off" on the come-out roll. Why is that? Isn't one roll of the dice be as good as any other roll of the dice? Mike P.

You're correct, Mike, in that the house edge on place bets is exactly the same as if you have them working on the come-out, or any other roll.

The reason most players who have a wager on the pass line as well as a place number and want the place numbers off is that they're not interested in being a winner on the pass line, and simultaneously a loser on the place bets if a 7 were to roll. They prefer leaving their place bets in an indeterminate state for a roll; that way, if the shooter rolls a 7 on the come-out, they win on the pass line, and their place bets are still alive. If a point number appears (4, 5 ,6, 8, 9, 10), they can then root against the 7 on both the pass and place bets alike.

Dear Mark: The Indian casino where I play replaced all of their remaining two- deck handheld and shoe games with automatic shuffling machines. Is there any basic strategy differences from a multi-deck game versus an automatic shuffler? Will J.

Even though there are no basic strategy differences required to play on automatic shuffle machines, if it's not the only game in town, my first bit of advice, Will, is to shuffle your feet out of the casino and find yourself a hand-dealt game.

Sure, there are some studies that show that continuous automatic shufflers actually reduce the house edge against basic strategy players, but such reduction is not enough to offset the approximately 20 percent increase in the number of hands you'll see per hour.

Increasing hands-per-hour generally multiplies the benefits-per-hour for the entity with the built-in edge, and even though you're playing basic strategy, continuous shuffling machines and non-continuous shufflers alike will take more of a bite out of your bankroll than will a hand-shuffled game, giving the house more of an opportunity for the casino advantage to peck away at your bankroll.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: The attraction of gambling is the possibility of wealth without work. --San Braids, The Intelligent Guide To Texas Hold'em Poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 21, 2008

A little bar stool trivia on cards

Dear Mark: Is there any way of producing luck when you gamble? Wendy P.

Producing luck? Sure! You will always have more luck in the long run at games where the casino has a small house edge versus games where the casino has a large house edge. You've read it here before, and I'll state it again; The smarter you play, the luckier you'll be.

Indeed, Wendy, though it's possible to have good fortune making bad bets on bad games, don't bet on such outlandish lucky streaks happening with any frequency.

Dear Mark: It seems every time I play one coin instead of three coins in a slot machine, I seem to hit more payouts. Are the machines set to pay less when you play more coins? John S.

You didn't mention where you play, but in every gaming jurisdiction that I'm familiar with, which is pretty much the whole US market, it is illegal for a slot machine to determine which symbols will land on which payline based on the number of coins played.

You will, though, have a higher long-term payback when you play the maximum coin amount. But that's just because some combinations pay more when you play maximum coin. What doesn't change are the chances of landing on paying combinations, whether you played, one, two, or the maximum number of coins.

Dear Mark: In last week's column you stated that the suit of spades reflects nobility in the structure of medieval society. As a bit of a card trivia buff, I was always under the impression that spades represented the Middle East of biblical times. Is there a different interpretation that I am unfamiliar with? Tomas H.

The introduction, manner, and interpretations of what both the suits and the Kings, Queens and Jacks (Knaves) on them represent are forever a matter of dispute. Your version represents civilizations that have influenced our culture. Hearts the Holy Roman Empire, diamonds the Roman Empire, clubs Greece, and as you state correctly, spades the Middle East of biblical times.

Another depiction, comes from France, the culture having had the greatest influence on the creation of the modern deck of cards. They combined the knight and page, reduced the size of the deck to 52 cards, and simplified the suit symbols in 1480 to red for diamonds and hearts, black spades and trefoils (clover leaves). The four suits reflecting the structure of the medieval society: hearts---priesthood; spades---nobility; clubs---peasantry; diamonds---the wealthy merchant class.

There are many theories about whom the court cards represent, one of the most common being that the Kings in a deck of cards represent famous rulers; the king of spades is King David, the king of clubs is Alexander the Great, the king of hearts is Charlemagne, and the king of diamonds is Julius Caesar.

As for the king's better half, the queen of spades, the only armed queen in the deck, represents Athena, who used the epithet "Pallas," the Greek goddess of war. The queen of diamonds is Rachel, the second wife of Jacob. The queen of clubs is Argine, an anagram of Regina, signifying queen. The queen of hearts is Judith of Bavaria, daughter-in-law of Charlemagne.

The jack of spades represents Ogier the Dane, a knight of Charlemagne, clubs, Judas Maccabeus, one of the greatest warriors in Jewish history, hearts, La Hire, a French military commander who fought alongside Joan of Arc, and diamonds, the Trojan prince, Hector.

A propos Biblical times, or at least the Bible, did you know that after Johann Gutenberg finished printing the 1,284-page Gutenberg Bible run, having invented the printing press in 1455, the next impressions he made were of playing cards?

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Poker is a godless game filled with random pain. --Andy Bloch, Bigger Deal

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 14, 2008

Will a Roll of Quarters 4.5 Yards Long Last the Weekend?

Dear Mark: Is $600 enough of a bankroll for playing quarter slots for a weekend casino trip? Theresa S.

That depends, Theresa, on which quarter machines you chose to play and the speed at which you play them.

A $600 bankroll on a two and three-coin machine should be enough to keep you playing for a weekend just so long as you're not Speedy-Gonzales-fast when hitting the credit button.

Characteristically, a player yanks a handle or pushes a button once every ten seconds. On a 3-coin quarter machine, wagering 75 cents per spin, that's $4.50 per minute, or $270 per hour.

Since the average quarter machine returns approximately 92% to the player, over the long run you will lose around $22 for every hour of play. Four, four-hour sessions will cost you $352, which is less than your stated bankroll. Simple "Rithmetic," Theresa, states you probably won't tap out and that $600 is enough.

Yet I couldn't help thinking of those quarters, each 1.75 mm thick, in one immense coin roller, stretching 4.5 yards, and why it won't work on all quarter machines. A $600 bankroll wouldn't be enough for a multi-coin/multi-line slot machine where you're betting 50 quarters per spin, buying you fewer than 50 spins. If you're on a cold machine, you could bust after 10 minutes of play

Another alternative, Theresa, is that I sweet-talk you into playing video poker instead. Even poor play on a video poker machine will give you a better payback than most "reel" slot machines do, and that $600 bankroll will last even longer.

Dear Mark: I was hoping that you can settle a argument between me and a friend of mine. He is insisting that the highest hand in poker is a royal flush in SPADES. Everyone else states that a royal flush is the highest hand no matter what suit, and a spade royal would not beat another royal if both were in the same deal. Years ago my friend's mother used to have high stakes games at her house. I am sure if you have a game at your house you can make your own rules, just as long as all players know about them, but generally speaking, there is no such thing as spades ranking supreme. Steve P.

If your friend's mother is gracious enough to let her card club spill beer and chip dip all over her carpet, she can make the rules of the house, and spades, which reflects nobility in the structure of medieval society, I guess ranks supreme in her house.

At our kitchen table Pinochle game, my Mom's rule was that spades paid double, so you would always try to grab the bid, even if your chances were slim of making it.

But in the casino, no poker game, video or otherwise, is suit specific on any hand. Occasionally though, a casino will have a promotion with designated video poker machines paying higher jackpots if certain straights, flushes or royals are in a particular suit. There are also a few video poker machines that pay a mega-jackpot if you hit a royal flush in a predetermined suit with cards in sequential order (Example: 10 of spades, J, Q, K and Ace of spades), but what plays as an occasional promotion on a video poker machine will get you a baffled stare in any poker room.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Winning enhances your self-esteem faster than a year's worth of psychotherapy. --Cat Hulbert, Outplaying the Boys

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

November 7, 2008

When in doubt, let the house set your hand

Dear Mark: As someone new to Pai Gow Poker, would you a) play the game, and b) advise letting the dealer set my hand since I'm a beginner? Pat T.

Pai Gow Poker is a variant of American seven-card poker. It is played with a standard 52-card deck and a joker, but differs from the typical seven-card game in that you play against a banker, not against the other players at the table.

Each player is dealt seven cards with which he must make two hands based on poker rankings -- a front hand of two cards and a back hand of five cards. The five-card hand must outrank the two-card hand.

You win if you defeat the banker on both your front and back hands. You lose only if the banker beats you on both hands. A "copy," or push, always goes to the banker.

I see no reason why you, as a newbie, wouldn't want the house to set you hand correctly, mostly because the casino advantage on the game will be lower if they do, and, as someone new to Pai Gow Poker, you are prone to make two typical novice-errors. You risk failing to see a five-card flush, and/or you risk incorrectly setting your hands when dealt two pairs. Two-pair hands appear fairly often, and setting them correctly is incredibly important. (Note: Here's the quick rule of thumb for playing two pairs: If your hand has either an unmatched Ace or King, keep the two pairs in your five-card hand. If you have neither, play the lower-ranking pair as the two-card hand.)

So what's the house edge by having the house set your hand? Two and a half percent, about the same as if you were to use perfect basic strategy.

Now, Pat, let's talk about that 2.5% for just a moment. At first glance, you'll note it's higher than my ageless recommendation: "never give the casino higher than a 2% edge." But with this negative expectation game, slow is good, very good.

Pai Gow Poker can be really slow; sometimes no more than 40 hands in an hour are actually played to completion. Compare that to Mini-baccarat, which, although a lower house-edge play, is an extremely fast game where 200 decisions can be made in an hour.

Here's the arithmetic, Pat, on why it's not such a bad play. If you were to play Pai Gow Poker at $5 a hand, 40 hands an hour, giving the house 2.5%, you would lose, over the long run, just $5 per hour. With Mini-baccarat at $5 a whack, and even though the house edge is only 1.17%, if you were to play just the Banker hand, by seeing 200 decisions an hour, you would have an hourly loss of $11.70.

Pai Gow Poker, even as a beginner and allowing the house to set your hand, is pretty cheap entertainment, Pat, for a measly five bucks an hour.

Dear Mark: Often in your column you mention the benefits of basic strategy in blackjack. Basic strategy tells us to always hit a 16. Isn't the smart move to let the dealer bust instead, even if he has a 7-10 showing? Ted R.

The Basic strategy I often mention in this column is a set of computer-derived rules for playing every hand against every possible dealer up-card.

Let's examine your hand example, the one we all get, all of the time, that god- awful 16. If you hit this crappy hand, you will bust over 60 percent of the time. The other option is to stand and let the dealer bust out. The problem is that when you stand as well, you will lose approximately 70 percent of the time.

The dealer's chances of having a 17 or more when he shows a 7, 8, 9, 10 or ace are between 74% and 83%. For that reason, correct basic strategy dictates that you always hit your 16.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Don't fight a battle if you don't gain anything by winning. --General George Patton
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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 31, 2008

Progressives are in no way a "Cluck-for-the-Buck" deal

Dear Mark: I enjoy playing those super jackpot progressive slot machines because it gives me the greatest return for a small investment. Is this sound and sensible gambling? Oliver P.

It is a mistaken belief, Oliver, shared by scores of slot players, that you are only making a small investment in an attempt to win big jackpots when you play progressive slots. This false impression, for those who play progressives, is that for a few bucks you get a shot at a champagne wishes and caviar dreams lifestyle. The problem, Oliver, is that you're probably going to end up losing most of your money, most of the time, chasing your imaginary castle in the sky.

What's not figured in your comfy fantasy is that progressive slots come with a casino edge in the double digits, as high as 20 percent. Meaning, Oliver, over the long run, for every dollar you insert, the casino is going to keep 20 cents of it.

So there you are, Oliver, sitting down for a six hour stint in front of your favorite progressive. If you are a dollar player, playing the maximum three coins a pop to get a crack at the top prize, you'll hit the "Bet Max" button 240 times an hour, and that's slow playing mind you, and all of a sudden you've just cycled $4,320 (240 spins X $3 X 6hrs) through the machine. Now back off 20 percent - that's the $864 the casino is looking forward to banking from your wallet -- and I'm not sure where your idea of "small investment" emanates from.

If you were to go to a casino a baker's dozen times in a year (one visit per month, twice in February cause it's your birthday), you are really wagering $56,160. The 20 percent cut the casino is going to swallow is $11,232, so once again I ask you, where does that idea of small investment come from?

Did I mention that some of these progressive jackpots have a one in 16,777,216 chance of being hit?

Dear Mark: Do those $25 video poker 9/6 machines you see in the high roller room return the same as a dollar 9/6 game? I was told because you are playing so much per hand, even if the paytables are exactly the same, the return would be better the higher the denomination. Bill S.

You were told wrong, Bill. All paytables, being equal, will give you the exact same return, but as for net profitability, that isn't necessarily so.

A 9-6 Jacks or Better machine will return 99.5 percent over the long haul with expert play regardless of whether the game takes quarters, dollars, or $125 per hand ($25 X 5).

The problem with the higher denomination machines is that you have certain hands that will trigger IRS-level jackpots, for instance, a hand pay for a four-of-a-kind or a straight flush on a $25 machine.

With hands of this type, you run into the rule that the casino is required to have you sign an IRS form W-2G before they can pay you any jackpot of $1,200 or more.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Deep down, in the final analysis, women gamblers are no different than men. They too have the gambling itch, and in today's world they scratch it with relative impunity and anonymity. --Deke Castleman, Whale Hunt in the Desert

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 24, 2008

Negative Expectations we cherish and suffer

Dear Mark: Although I seldom win anything, I do enjoy playing video keno. Is there any advice you could give me to improve my chances of winning? Kaye S.

The reason you seldom win anything, Kaye, is because keno is a negative-expectation game that has a higher casino edge than most games the casino has to offer. On the plus side, with video keno, the medium house advantage compared to that in a live keno game is much lower. For a live keno game it's 28%, whereas with video keno it is 7.5%.

Why lower you ask? Video keno simply has better paytables, but that doesn't necessarily mean video keno is a better entertainment deal for the evening. At $1 a ticket, the most you could lose on a live game over an hour is about $15, that being the average number of games called per hour. A typical video keno player can burn through $15 worth of quarters in mere minutes.

Which leads me to my first bit of advice. Only bet what you can afford to lose. And just as important, the slower you play, the less hard-earned money you'll put through the shredder.

Also, Kaye, hunt for the highest-paying paytables. Scrutinize each paytable to find which one gives you the lowest house edge. Oh yeah, and don't forget to use your slot club card to offset the losses you can, no, will, experience on such a negative-expectation game.

As for strategy, sorry, Kaye, but like the emperor's new clothes, there isn't any. The numbers are chosen at random and each draw is independent, so playing providential numbers you think are lucky, or numbers you feel are "due," just doesn't work. (A friend of a friend uses the numbers out of Fortune cookies, but he borrows bus fare to go home.)

Dear Mark: Between these three games, Three Card Poker, Caribbean Stud and Let It Ride, which game offers the player the best bet? Tom G.

Although it lacks a progressive jackpot, as does Caribbean Stud, or decent sized payoff for a royal as in Let It Ride in a casino environment, I would recommend of the three, Three Card Poker, simply because the casino advantage is lower on select bets among the three games you mentioned.

With Caribbean Stud, the best you can hope for is a casino edge of about 5.2% based on the player's ante wager, or 2.6% based on the ante and call bet. As for the progressive wager, the average house edge is over 26%, depending, of course, on the size of the jackpot.

As for Let it Ride, even if you played the game flawlessly, the casino's edge on Let-It-Ride is 3.51%. And, oh! let's keep track of those Let-It-Ride side bets where for $1 you are offered an additional payoff with certain paying hands; those bets carry a double-digit casino advantage.

As regards Three Card poker, it depends on whether you like your cards or not; I'll rephrase that---on whether you should like your cards. The house edge is 3.37% against the Ante alone, but only 2.01% against your Queen-6-4, if you decide to make the Play bet. With a Pair Plus wager, the casino advantage is slightly higher at 2.32%.

As you can see, Tom, Three Card Poker, offers better wagers for the player, and although the casino advantage is above my suggested "never make a wager that has higher than a 2% house edge," it is tolerable, easy to learn, and plenty of players find it fun to play.

However, you knew this was coming, didn't you? ....You might want to think about giving Mini-Baccarat a try, or even blackjack, using perfect basic strategy. Each has a house edge well under two percent, beating the bejeebers out of all the table games mentioned above.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: No matter what our character, no matter what our behavior, no matter if we are ugly, unkind, murderers, saints, guilty sinners, foolish, or wise, we can get lucky. Mario Puzo, Inside Las Vegas (1976)

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 17, 2008

It Probably doesn't matter where you sit

Dear Mark: You mentioned in a recent column regarding 98% slot paybacks that "if you look closely at the casino advertisement, it will probably say, "on select machines." Typically that means dollar machines, but the return usually it is not posted on the machine itself, and generally will be limited to a single carousel of machines, or possibly just one or two slots." My question as to that comment is, on each machine on a carousel that are linked together, such as Megabucks, are the paybacks the same? Frances D.

The best answer I can give you, Frances, is probably.

In a carousel or bank of either video pokers or slots, the machines are typically hooked together so as to create progressive jackpots; still, each electronic machine within that network plays, and can be programmed to return such-and-such amount, independently.

You can presume, though, with some certainty that in most cases the paybacks are one and the same on all of the machines that are linked together, especially on a progressive carousel. And yet, Frances, there is no electronic reason why some machines couldn't be programmed to have higher or lower long-term paybacks than the others.

One casino I once worked in had different paybacks on all their "in-house progressive" carousel machines. Of course, the unsuspecting player never knew which machines were tighter than the others, and those stingy machines got just as much play as any other on the carousel.

But, using Megabucks as an example, although you are playing an individual machine, you are hooked up to a statewide network of progressive slot carousels linked together to produce those whopping payouts, and you should feel reasonably comfortable that each machine's payback percentage, albeit very low because it's a monster progressive, is the same as the payback percentage of all those it's linked to.

Dear Mark: I'm kind of new to the world of craps. The other night while playing I overheard a couple people talking about a put bet. Is there really such a thing as a put bet? And, if there were, why would casinos let you make this bet? Albie D.

When you bet on the Pass line, Albie, one of the following three things will occur:

· The next roll will be a 7 or 11, in which case you immediately win even money (1 for 1), or...

· b.) The next roll will be a 2, 3, or 12, in which case you immediately lose money, or...

· c.) The 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 will roll, becoming YOUR and the roller's point. If the shooter repeats the point on an ensuing roll, you win and are paid even money (1 for 1). If the "ugly 7" appears before the point repeats itself, you lose your Pass line wager.

A "Put" wager is a seldom-used bet that is made on the pass line after the crapshooter establishes their point. For instance, say you have no action on the pass line and the shooter rolls an eight. You can then "put" a bet down on the pass line and take the maximum odds.

The reason the casino permits you to make a "put" bet is because you skip the come-out seven and eleven, which has a 22.2% chance of winning, and only a 11.11% chance of losing. For the average crap player, it's not worth giving up the come out roll.

However, for the casinos that offer 10X, 50X and even 100X odds, a "put" bet isn't such a bad wager, especially on a $2 game. The higher odds will more than offset the seven/eleven come out advantage. But if the only casino where you play offers only 2X odds max, it is still more profitable to just make a pass line bet and take advantage of the come out seven/eleven.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Many bad players will not improve because they cannot bear self-knowledge. David Mamet, Things I learned Playing Poker on the Hill (1986)

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 10, 2008


"Any Craps" would be a great hangman word

Dear Mark: Is there any chance that you could spend a portion of your column explaining the "any craps" bet on a crap game. In all the years you've been writing your column, I don't believe you have ever covered it. Buck D.

Yes, Buck, I have not explained the "Any Craps," bet in any drawn-out answer to a reader's question, but I have in the past briefly mentioned that it is a wager that you should definitely avoid. Now is no time to waste hard-earned money.

The bet is quite simple. Typically employed on the come out roll, an "any craps" bet is wagering that 2, 3, or 12 will be the result of the next roll of the dice.

By and large, most players make Pass Line bets and they win with a 7 or 11 on the come out roll, but lose if a 2, 3, or 12 appear. These three numbers are the "craps" numbers, and a bet on "any craps" is a combination bet on any one of those three numbers.

Pass line bettors in the dark like them because they want a "hedge" against their pass line bet -- which is where the "any craps" bet comes in. So instead of a flat loss of your pass line money if a 2, 3, or 12 rolls, it is "hedged" by winning an "any craps" bet.

Here's an example: Suppose you have a $10 bet on the pass line and you toss the dealer a $1 chip and yell out "Any craps!" He or she will place it in the "C" circle (for Craps) on the layout. Now you have two bets working, a pass line bet and an "any craps" wager. On the next toss of the dice, you will experience one of three things.

1) A point rolls, and your wager stays on the pass line but loses your $1 any craps bet or...

2) either 7 or 11 is tossed, and you win your pass line bet of $10, but you lose your $1 any craps bet. Here your net win would be $9 instead of $10, or, finally ...

3) a craps number rolls - either 2, 3 or 12, and you lose your pass line bet of $10 but win your $1 any craps bet, and you are paid 7 to 1. So, Buck, instead of losing $10 you would lose only $3.

Whether you play the "any craps" hedge bet is up to you, but I'm going to give this wager two thumbs down because the odds against any craps happening are 36 to 4 or 9 to 1. The correct payoff should be 8 to 1, but the casino is only willing to part with 7 to 1, creating a house edge on this one-roll bet of 11.1%.


Dear Mark: If a casino advertises 98% return on their slots, does that mean all of their machines, or is it specific denomination machines, return that amount back to the customer? Carol G.

If a casino advertises slots that return 98%, this does NOT mean that for each dollar you put in, you will automatically get back 98 cents. All that the 98% return means is that over the life cycle of that particular slot machine, it will average payoffs equal to 98% of all money inserted.

Also, Carol, if you look closely at the casino advertisement, it will probably say, "on select machines." Typically that means dollar machines, but the return usually it is not posted on the machine itself, and generally will be limited to a single carousel of machines, or possibly just one or two slots.

On top of that, it becomes your responsibility to find them. The easiest way is to ask a slot employee, and if he or she doesn't know, have one of them ask their direct supervisor. The secret here is to ask, ask, and ask.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Poker is a delicate dance of knowing when to stick your neck out and when to turn turtle. --John Vorhaus

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

October 3, 2008

Give those machines a more thorough physical

Dear Mark: As a video poker player, if finding a 9/6 machine is not too tough, finding one that pays 2 coins (for each coin bet) on two pair is even tougher. Most machines look like 9/6 but 1 coin returned for two pairs. When the "best" machine in the casino is a 9/6/1, is there a better advantage to playing the 8/5/2 version? Dan R.

First, Dan, do you mind if I ask you question? Are you sure the machines you speak of didn't pay a bonus on some of the four-of-a-kinds? I have to ask because your question omits vital information, notably the rest of the pay-table.

A standard Jacks-or-better full-pay machine typically returns 9-for-1 on a Full House, and 6-for-1 for a Flush. The full-versus-partial equation changes when the machine only pays 1-for-1 for two pairs. Most likely, you were playing on some hybrid Bonus Poker machine, where the payoff bonus for Four-of-a-Kind is reduced to 1-for-1.

But even if the paytable states four Aces pay 80-for-1; four 2s, 3s or 4s 40-for-1; four 5s through Kings 25-for-1, you could be giving the house an extra 5-plus percent on your play. Reducing the return on two-Pair hands penalizes the player too far, even with the increased payoffs on Four-of-a Kinds.

Now it's time to scare the bejesus out of you. Let's say there is no bonus for four-of-a-kinds. Assuming that the other paybacks on this machine are the same as 9/6 Jacks, these machines dribble back only a bankroll-busting 86.7%.

My recommendation is to keep looking for that Full Pay 9/6 machine where you are paid 2-for-1 for two Pair. If you can find it, you're getting a return of approximately 99.5%. Otherwise, your next best choice is to play the 8/5 machines that do pay 2 for two pair. They pay back about 97%.

Dear Mark: An interesting situation happened on a blackjack game that I hope you can help me out with. I'm playing two hands of blackjack at $20 a hand and I receive a 13 on one (6 and a 7) and a Jack and Queen for a 20 on the other. I toss $10 in front of both of my bets for insurance. Because it wasn't directly in front of either, the dealer asks me which bet I wanted to insure. Am I wrong in believing that obviously it was the 20 and the dealer should have known that, or did he know something I don't know? Ron L.

He may or may not have known, that it really doesn't make any difference whether you insure the 13 or the 20. Insuring a 13 is every bit as poor a wager as is insuring a 20. Both, Ron, are sucker bets.

But if you want to get really technical, insuring the 20 is actually the worse play, since you are holding at least two of the cards the dealer needs to make blackjack. Insuring a hand composed of two 10 cards, even on the most liberal single deck game, gives the house a 14.3% edge, making this one of the worst bets in the casino.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: One thing that a loser has that a winner doesn't have: lots of room for improvement. --VP Pappy

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Tags: Video_Poker Blackjack

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 26, 2008

The Sure Win is at our Throats Again

Dear Mark: If card counters have a mathematical edge against the casino, isn't it impossible for them to lose? I guess my question is, as long as a player has that edge, they would always win, right? David D.

Yes, but you could go broke first. "Huh?"

Let's begin this exercise by flipping a coin and betting a buck a pop. But first, I am going to generously give you the same mathematical edge the best-of-the-best blackjack counters have over the game, two percent. So, David, every time you win, you will be paid one dollar and two pennies. Every time you lose, all you have to give me is a buck.

Theoretically, as your question suggests, you should win because flipping a coin is a 50-50 proposition, and I'm paying you more for a win ($1.02) than you are losing for a loss ($1). So after 200 flips, you should, in theory, win 100 flips and lose 100 flips and come out ahead by 200 pennies.

Now start flipping. I'm waiting, come on, hurry up.

Hmmmmm, did you happen to notice something peculiar after those 200 flips? My guess is it didn't exactly work out that we both won 100 times, allowing you to profit by those two dollars. Possibly you lost, and lost a lot.

You see, David, your edge is a long-term mathematical fact, but in the short run, anything can and often does happen; accordingly, any given gambling session must be considered an exercise in the "short run."

Your gambling timeline of 200 flips is far too short for the law of averages to fully shake itself awake, and for you to always win and show a two-dollar profit, you would need to view a substantial number of flips, enough flips to give you carpal tunnel syndrome, and more than you will ever make in a single session.

Now let's discuss that "broke first" poke I gave you in the first sentence.

We're going to flip a coin again with the same conditions as above. But this time, you only have a $50 bankroll and Yours Truly has what most casinos have, pretty much an unlimited war chest.

These would be similar to the conditions that most casino patrons play under, that being a small bankroll (yours) versus Fort Knox. You can get wiped out even with a two percent edge, simply because your $50 bankroll might not be able to sustain the fluctuations of probability inherent in a coin flip, or for that matter, a couple hundred hands of blackjack.

You just don't have enough money to weather the bad streaks that will inevitably come your way. Sure, David, you might have the edge, along with winning streaks, but never forget that edge is only mathematical. Bad luck happens, and can hang on longer than seems reasonable, sometimes to where you just plain run out of capital.

In real world casino gambling, the house with the unlimited bankroll, against your measly $50, is the entity with real edge.

Dear Mark: Every time I play slot machines, it seems I get ahead a decent amount, and then I give it all back to the casino chasing jackpots. Any solutions? Pauline B.

Here's a simple solution, Pauline: Don't chase jackpots. Instead, how about being satisfied with modest winnings. What you need to understand is that over time small winnings can add up to sizeable winnings, which gives you an opportunity to take a whack at the casino more often.

What you're caught up in is called-CHURN. You keep betting your winning credits. You recycle (churn) your money back through the cybernetic one-armed bandit until you either tap out, or hit "the big one," and the odds of hitting "the big one" can be millions and millions to one.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: You never bet enough on a winning horse. -Old Irish Mackinac proverb

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Tags: Card Counter Slots

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 19, 2008

Not all the important information is hidden

Dear Mark: In our state, we don't have access to slot payback percentages so we as players don't have a clue what that percentage is. Your advice in a past column called "slot tips" was to play video poker instead of slots, and yet, wouldn't that also be bad advice in that video poker is just as random as slots are? Theresa P.

Here's what I wrote in that column, Theresa: "If you are going to choose between video poker and slots, play video poker. Even poor play on a video poker machine will have a better payback than most "reel" slot machines."

Here's why, Theresa, there is such a big difference. Slots are programmed by the manufacturer to pay back a certain percentage, but video poker is based on, yes, Theresa, you are partially right, a random deal from a 52-card deck, but it's still based on true mathematical probability that you can determine in advance of playing.

In your state, casinos do not make slot machine payback percentages public, but by standing front and center in front of a video poker looking at its paytable, you can easily distinguish a good video poker machine from a bad one, and can calculate precisely the true payback for each.

All you need to do is learn what paytables to look for, learn proper playing strategy -- basically which cards to hold or discard -- and you can play against the house almost dead even. Compare that to playing a slot machine, which can be gobbling up to 20 cents of every dollar inserted, and hopefully you can now appreciate the distinct difference.

Dear Mark: I saw something this past weekend I've never seen happen before in a casino; a natural royal flush at a Caribbean Stud table. What are the odds of a royal flush in Caribbean Stud? Another thing I noticed besides the royal is how many times the dealer didn't qualify and I wasn't able to get paid on my call bets. What percentage of the time does the dealer NOT qualify in Caribbean Stud? Jake S.

Caribbean Stud Poker is in essence a game of five-card stud poker, without the luxury of a draw, so seeing that natural royal flush over the weekend is a rare event indeed.

How rare you ask? Well, there are 2,598,560 possible five-card combinations in a standard 52-card deck. With four ways to make a royal flush, the true odds of hitting a natural royal are 649,640 to one.

As to your second question, the dealer will NOT qualify 43.68 percent of the time, which I'm sure leads to fits on your part when you have a good hand and the dealer doesn't qualify!

That said, Jake, don't interpret the dealer who doesn't qualify 43.68 percent of the time as some golden opportunity to always make call bets, so at least your ante will get paid, especially when you have a weak hand.

The hole in this strategy is that when the dealers do qualify, and they will almost 56 percent of the time, you will not only lose the ante bet, but also the call bet, which is twice the amount of the ante wager.

If you mistakenly bluff with a weak hand, you will lose 25% more of your ante over the long haul than if you had folded your shaky ones.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Poker is seductive to compulsive gamblers because they think their skill has not only leveled the playing field, but given them an advantage. --Andy Belin

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Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Vp Slots Caribbean Stud Poker

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 12, 2008

Better half has the week off

Dear Mark: Our local newspaper has been carrying your column for years and I must say, the education you dole out every week is a welcome relief to losing money every time I go in the casino. Count me in the “make only bets that have less than a 2% casino advantage” club that you always espouse. Anyway, my husband and I have argued this VP hand for years. I'm dealt a flush, but four of the cards could be used for a royal. For example, you are dealt a six of spades, along with a 10, J, Q and Ace also of spades. I believe you should discard the six and go for the royal. My husband believes you should keep a sure thing. We bet dishes for a week on your answer. Donna D.

Before hubby lays his eyes on this column, up the bet to both cook and clean, then slide this under a magnet on the refrigerator door.

With Jacks-or-better video poker, basic strategy dictates that you discard the six of spades from your dealt flush in order to hold a 4-card royal flush.

Your husband may think the sure thing is the happier hope -- and it certainly seems that way, given that you have only a 1 in 47 chance for hitting the royal flush -- but mathematically you're better off taking a shot at the royal. Here's why.

Any time you play video poker, you must either hold or discard certain cards to optimize the "expected value" (win potential) of your hand.

And what is "expected value?" It is the average value of all the wins attainable (after the discards are replaced), assuming that the optimum cards are retained and each unique possible draw occurs. In your example, the expected Value of a 4-Card Royal is 19 and of a naturally dealt flush is just a 5.

Any time, Donna, that the math says you're better off playing a certain hand a certain way, believe it. You'll win more money in the long run making that play.

Dear Mark: In slots, I was told that payback and hit frequency are one in the same. Is that true? Jack R.

Vastly different by definition, Jack. Payback is the amount of money the machine pays back to its players over the long haul. Hit frequency is the percentage of spins that return something to the player. It doesn't matter, Jack, whether the hit is 3 coins or 3,000, a hit is a hit.

Dear Mark: On a Jacks or better video poker slot machine, is it better to hold, let's say, a pair of 8s and hope for a third eight, or hold a face card and hope for a pair? Kathy S.

Even though a lone face card has some value and the potential of winning money, basic strategy suggests that you hold the pair of 8s. The frequency of hitting two pair, three of a kind, full houses or four of a kind when you hold the low pair more than makes up for chasing that elusive royal, or even a high pair.

Dear Mark: Every time I double down with 11 against a face card it seems the dealer has a 20. I've been burned so many times that you are going to have to convince me why I should ever do it again. Steve P.

Hopefully, simple arithmetic will convince you, Steve. When you double with an 11 against a 10 you will win the hand six times for every five times you lose.

Gambling Wisdom of the week: You can gamble for match sticks, you can gamble for gold. The stakes may be heavy or small, but if you haven't gambled for love and lost, you haven't gambled at all. --Frankie Laine. Moonlight Gambler (song)
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Tags: Gambling Column Pilarski Poker 21

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

September 5, 2008

One toss from the poorhouse

Dear Mark: The casino I play in offers 100X odds, and I figure that by taking them I am offering myself the best opportunity to win. So what are your thoughts on a sole $2 pass line wager backed up with 100X odds? I feel I have a better chance of coming out ahead than by betting $2 and double odds and trying to grind it out. Tim H.

I am going to apply, Tim, the Woody Hayes axiom of football to your gambling question: There are three things that can happen when you throw the ball, and two are negative; an incompletion or an interception. The same holds true when taking 100X odds on a solitary wager. You could lose, and simultaneously, get wiped out, all in one throw of the dice.

Taking odds, Tim, can be an expensive proposition, especially when dealing in multiples of 100X odds.

True, with the house edge on this bet a puny 0.09%, you are getting one of the best bets the casino has to offer, but, as minuscule as 0.09% is, you are exposing your entire bankroll ($202) to embrace this wager.

It takes just one seven wielding its ugly face and you'll be begging for badly needed free drinks in the keno lounge. Oops, many casinos don't even have keno lounges anymore where you can score complimentary cocktails; instead you'll be waiting down at the bus lobby waiting for them to call your departure.

I'll be the first to agree that the suggestion in your question is a sound gambling strategy, and I especially like your pursuit of a $2 table. But let us all not forget one important thing: All craps bets come at a cost. Craps is a negative expectation game, meaning that, no matter how you bet, even a $2 wager with 100X odds, the house has an edge on your action.

A crap game that offers 100X odds is for players who typically wager between $25-$50 per hand, not a $2 player. It takes more than nerve to put your entire $202 bankroll on the line and wait for a 4 to roll. Capiche? Your reply, Tim, should be, Capisco!

Dear Mark: When playing Deuces Wild, I occasionally do hit four deuces, but have yet to ever hit a royal flush. Are the odds similar in hitting them? Jenny R.

Using proper basic strategy, you should hit four deuces once in approximately 5,000 hands. Certainly, that makes four deuces fairly rare, but still eight times more frequent than a royal flush, which occurs once every 40,000 hands.

Dear Mark: First, my apologies for this not really being a gambling question. Last week I really appreciated your analogy of comparing bet quality to that of collecting of baseball cards. You said, "Bet quality reminds me of rating the value of baseball cards. Poor, being a Yankee Red Ruffing retrieved 40 years ago from spokes of your Schwinn Sting-ray, or, a mint Mantle, still in the wrapper, gum included."

What I can't for the life of me figure out is that with the thousands and thousands of baseball players that have played the game, you came up with the name Red Ruffing. You are either an astute collector of baseball cards, or you are related to me, as Charles "Red" Ruffing is a great Uncle of mine. Which is it? John S.

Sorry, John, it's neither. Outside of bad beat stories in poker, I'm really not a collector of anything, unless a sizable collection of Tupperware counts for something.

My familiarity with the name Red Ruffing came from when my son, Nick, was in the play Brighton Beach Memoirs. In the opening scene his character, Eugene Morris Jerome, is tossing a ball against the wall pretending to be, none other than your great uncle, Red Ruffing.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: Deception is what you do to others. Delusion is what you do to yourself. --John Vorhaus, Killer Poker

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Tags: Craps Pilarski Deuces Wild

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 29, 2008

Many card counters think they are better players than they actually are

Dear Mark: As a hobby, and only at home, I like to count down a deck of cards. As I said, I only do this at home and have never tried it on a live blackjack game. Before I do, I was curious as to if most blackjack players who learn to count cards actually end up being successful at beating the house, or am I, and they, wasting our time? I have to believe that the casino is not too keen on us beating them. Kevin L.

Experienced card counters, theoretically, have an advantage of between .5 and 1.5 percent against the casino, which is accomplished by tracking the changing imbalance of big to little cards in a diminishing deck. When the cards remaining favor the player, you bet more money. When they favor the dealer, you bet less. Big cards (10s, aces) favor the player; small cards (2-6) favor the dealer.

I opened with "Experienced card counters" because most players are just too darn lazy to learn to count cards well in actual casino conditions. And even if they did learn to make a half-way decent count-down, they often give themselves away by ranging their bets too much or doing something else to tip off the dealers and pit bosses that they are counting.

What the casino can, and will, do to combat would-be counters, is put more decks on the game, burying more cards on the shuffle, stopping mid-entry shoe betting, having the dealer shuffle half way through the deck, and when all else fails, they can, in certain gaming jurisdictions, legally bar the counters from playing and back them off the game. Put another way; give them the heave ho. Hey, Kevin, you're right. The casino is not too keen on blackjack players who know how to beat the house.

Oh, and where it is permissible to count, Atlantic City for instance, they impose tougher blackjack rules, multi-deck games, and they limit deck penetration to keep the skilled counter at bay. Now, add to the mix that most budding card counters make more than their fair share of basic strategy mistakes, and yes, miscount, which then puts the edge firmly back in the casino's favor.

Sure, Kevin, I've met counters that have brought the casino to its knees, but to the many who think they are the sharpest knife in the drawer, Mike Goodman in his book, Guide to Casino Gambling, Your Best Bet, put it neatly when he said, "Many so-called experienced 21 players don't know their ace from a hole in the ground."

Dear Mark: What should you do with an Ace/7 against a deuce; double down or stand? Kevin T.

I recommend staying pat with your Ace/7, and here's why. Usually soft doubling against a small card is a good move, but it can be lethal against a deuce. Staying pat, you have a 56% chance of winning, but if you double down and catch a bad card, you better plan on the dealer only breaking 35% of the time.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: When male gamblers come with their buddies, they behave differently than when they come with their girlfriends. And when they come with their girlfriends, they behave differently then when they come with their wives. --Deke Castleman, Whale Hunt in the Desert

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Tags: Card Counting Blackjack 21

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Deal Me In by Mark Pilarski

August 22, 2008

Legal, though not encouraged in the casino: Common Sense

Dear Mark: Why is the betting the seven considered a "sucker bet" in Craps? Jason F.

Bet quality, Jason, reminds me of rating the value of baseball cards. Poor, being a Yankee Red Ruffing retrieved 40 years ago from spokes of your Schwinn Sting-ray, or, a mint Mantle, still in the wrapper, gum included.

In the casino, bet quality is rated in terms of the house edge. This is the long haul average percentage the casino theoretically earns on every dollar wagered. The greater the edge, the more of your hard-earned money that you put into action the casino gets to keep, and the less you take home.

Although proposition bets like the seven have seemingly lofty payoffs, the house edge is way too high for you to waste your hard-earned money on them. The seven, in particular, is called a sucker bet because it is the worst wager on a crap game, or any table game for that matter. This one-roll proposition bet has a house edge of 16.7%. Compare that, Jason, to a pass line wager with a casino advantage of 1.41%, and you can see which is the more valuable baseball card.

Don't be an easy target (okay, sucker) and trade your pristine 1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle for a pitcher with a win percentage of .548, even if Ruffing did have an exceptional World Series record of 7-2.

Dear Mark: Does electronic blackjack have the same odds as the table blackjack? It seems to me that electronic blackjack could be programmed to the casino's advantage more than the table blackjack. Ming W.

It is a Nevada law (and I'm sure most states follow suit) that video representations of cards follow the same odds as those in a real game with a human dealer, and that they be completely random.

What you need to concern yourself with is legally "altered" rules. For instance, in video blackjack, it's tough to find a machine that pays you the true value of a blackjack (3 for 2). Most video blackjack machines pay only even money on natural 21's. The loss of that bonus is going to cost you an additional 2.3 percent.

So, Ming, be assured that even though the cards are dealt randomly, you are giving away a considerable amount percentage-wise on a blackjack machine, so naturally, the odds there wouldn't necessarily be the same as they'd be in table blackjack.

Dear Mark: My aunt Harriet "Kitty" Marshall started dealing 21 around 1948 and she worked in Reno, Lake Tahoe & Carson City. She finally had to quit two or three months ago due to vision problems with her commuting from Silver Springs. She is currently 86. Ray M.

Last week I mentioned that John Stanislaus Matuszak, who, at 86, was possibly the oldest person known to have dealt cards in a casino. I'm adding Kitty to that elite and honored club for dealing well into her ninth decade.

...and to think that I've got 30-plus more years in this business to catch this pair. That's either a sobering thought, or employment well into my golden years. I'll get back with you later on which.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: When people enter a casino, a whole new transformation takes place. People who wouldn't bet you the Pope was Catholic even get caught in the urge to gamble. -- John Patrick, So You Want To Be a Gambler

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Tags: Deal Me In Craps Blackjack

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